How inevitable was modern human civilization - data:
To me it looks like life, animals with nervous systems, Upper Paleolithic-style Homo, language, and behavioral modernity were all extremely unlikely events (notice how far ago they are - vaguely ~3.5bln, ~600mln, ~3mln, ~200k or ~600k, ~50k years ago) - except perhaps language and behavioral modernity might have been linked with each other, if language was relatively late (Homo sapiens only) and behavioral modernity more gradual (and its apparent suddenness is an artifact). Once we have behavioral modernity, modern civilization seems almost inevitable. Your interpretation might vary of course, but at least now you have a lot of data to argue for your position, in convenient format.
I agree with bolded part; see After the Ice: A Global Human History 20,000-5000 BC and The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human Evolution. After the last Ice Age post-hunter-gatherer lifestyles sprouted up independently several times. Homo were around during previous Interglacials, but there is no evidence of that before. During the Ice Age between the Eemian Interglacial ~100,000 years ago and Holocene ~10,000 years ago humanity changed in some fundamental way, so that once the ice retreated the scene was set for an unparalleled cultural explosion.
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Realistically, how developed would a civilization have to be for us to find its remains after the geographical changes plus sheer time associated with an ice age? Also, note that all recent previous interflacials were less stable and shorter than the current one, were they not? Much shorter and less stable I believe.
We do see a lack of domestication, and a lack of colonization or trade that transports non-native species to new continents, Pacific Islands, etc, but OTOH, behaviorally premodern humans made it to Tazmania.
Realistically, how developed would a civilization have to be for us to find its remains after the geographical changes plus sheer time associated with an ice age?
we can find remains tools of erectines. pottery seems like it would be findable. or some equivalent.
Also, note that all recent previous interflacials were less stable and shorter than the current one, were they not? Much shorter and less stable I believe.
eemian was 15,000 years. so not shorter. as for stability, agriculture and stuff like pottery showed up rather soon after the ice retreated. so the relatively stability over the past 10,000 years isn't really too relevant.
but OTOH, behaviorally premodern humans made it to Tazmania.
well, that's complicated. i don't know the archaeology well enough, henry harpending has told me that in some ways yes, they didn't advance in toolkit in australia, but the tasmanians were almost certainly part of "out of africa." erectus never made it to sahul.
The inevitability and intrinsicness of it kind of remind me of this one...
"Birds Raised In Complete Isolation Evolve 'Normal' Species Song Over Generations"
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090503132617.htm
You might enjoy Chad Oliver's science fiction book, "Giants in the Dust".
I wrote a related post about the inevitability of civilization DECLINE:
http://onestdv.blogspot.com/2009/08/inevitable-doom-of-human-civilizati…