Now that we are getting closer and closer to a close, we have recent data to work with, and some of the adjustments I've been making earlier are no longer needed. I am still taking a cautious approach, and in this analysis, Obama has exactly 270 votes. Have a look:
I'll probably do at least one more of these.
In the mean time, GOTV! (if you are a democrat, otherwise ignore this message)
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This seems to imply that nothing can go wrong as long as a blue state does not somehow flip.
I have not given up on my adopted state, Ohio.
ildi: Does this mean that you are working for the GOTV effort today and tomorrow? Or are you just hoping someone else is going to do it. Come on, get out there and volunteer! You are needed!!! And if you are already doing it, thank you.
I can't see Pennsylvania going for McCain. The excitement and energy I saw yesterday when I was doing GOTV in Philly was just astounding. Granted, I'm in the bluest of blue Pennsylvania, but with the population we have here and the excitement I'm seeing (not to mention all the new voters), I think our city can carry the state. I did take the day off tomorrow to do more GOTV; I'm not taking anything for granted.
ooooh, /snap!
Not this year, due to work limitations, but does it count that I worked the phone lines for my union and took food and water to people waiting in line to vote last time? I gave $$ this year instead.
(I was raised Catholic, so it's very easy to make me feel guilty.)
What polls are you reading that are showing Arizona, Montana and the Dakotas as closer than North Carolina? Pollster gives Obama over 5 points in North Carolina, losing in Arizona and South Dakota by over 6 points. His is also losing by a couple in Montana and up by a few in North Dakota.
ildi: What? You have plans for the evening that are more important than saving the planet? I suppose.....
Quit that, now!
"saving the planet" - are you being U.S.- or homo sapiens-centric? Such hubris!
Which ones and which ones, respectively? From what I've seen, I can agree that MT, ND and AZ are toss-ups, but if they are, why not GA, MO, IN, let alone NC, FL, and first of all OH?
However, thank you for demonstrating that Obama can win without OH, FL or PA.
<sad, very serious face>
You wish.
I wish.
But, for better or worse (well, worse in the last 8 years), all these terms like "most powerful man in the world" and "leader of the Free World™" are not exaggerated one bit.
The polls that influenced my choices are simply the ones that were released today and a couple from yesterday and shown on Real Clear Politics. This is admittedly very subjective compared to my other two estimates. But it is also in between the other two estimates. which might be worth something.
Well, I will do my minimum democratic requirement, and vote tomorrow, planet-saving and everything!
I think this is a rather overly cautious analysis. I've been tracking states and polls for about 2 weeks now, and I think it's going to be a lot closer to a landslied than that(barring "Rethuglican" dirty tricks). For instance, your map has Ohio red. I dont know. I've seen video clips on YouTube and elsewhere that show some of the most absolute morons I've ever seen, harassing Obama supporters and rallies. But I don't necessarily think eveyrone in Ohio thinks this w, and it appears to me that the vast majority of voting Americaqns are pretty much voting with their pocketbooks. And given the state of the economy, among other things, I have a feeling those votes are going to translate into votes for Obama. Especially in places like Ohio. In Florida, the other really important "tossup" state, I don't know. The demographics there are chainging, among other things, and it's pretty "weak Republican" at the moment. OTOH, I also think Florida may well be full of "dirty tricks" on Election Day.
Anne G
I was at the Marriott today and they had two TVs behind the check in desk. One had CNN, the other had Fox News. One had a scroll saying, breaking news, Obama's grandmother died. The other channel had a blurb saying MCCain says Obama would raise taxes. It was quite revealing since I don't watch either channel. I guess Obama's grandma dying wasn't news on Fox.
Check out this map: SurveyUSA Nov 2006 poll
Ok, did my minimum, and lucked out; I hear there was a crunch at my voting location at 6:30, but it cleared out just about when I got there at 7:30, so there were only four people in line in front of me.
I surprised myself by tearing up as I readied to vote for President; the fact that I could even choose a person of color is such a momentous occasion for this country. (I grew up in Alabama.) I hope the next few years are a time of healing for this country and we don't wreak more havoc on this planet.
Grayed Arizona makes me happy, as an Arizona resident and native. While McCain will likely win Arizona this time around, in 4 years we'll likely be a swing state. YAY!
What's with those pinkos in South Dakota?
The pinkos are just me forgetting to flip it all the way to McCain.
It's good to know that Obama can win without OH, NC, or FL, but others are saying those lean Obama. I hate to jinx him, but I think he'll take 'em all - a 90% turnout is not something the pollsters are used to when they count likely voters.