According to Jeff Masters at Wunderblog, "The earliest named storm on record in the Central Pacific, Hurricane Pali, formed on January 7."
The storm is out in the middle of the ocean, west of Kiribati:
The reason this storm formed off season is a combination of high sea surface temperatures because of global warming and, on top of this, extra high sea surface temperatures because of El Nino. In a sense, this year is preview of what things will be like all the time, more or less, as an "average" globally-warmed year catches up to an El Niño year.
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Greg said "The reason this storm formed off season is a combination of high sea surface temperatures because of global warming and, on top of this, extra high sea surface temperatures because of El Nino."
Or it could be just because of El Nino!
There is a reason the IPCC special report on extreme weather events said "Climate models are unable to predict extreme events because they lack spatial and temporal resolution. In addition, there is no clear evidence that sustained or worldwide changes in extreme events have occurred in the past few decades. "
There is just no way to know whether el nino would have formed as it did without human emitted CO2 or not. There is no way to know whether Hurricane Pali would have formed where and when it did, because of human emitted CO2 or not.
It may have been influenced by human emitted CO2 or not - there is no way to tell.
No, it can't. AGE and El Nino do not have separate units of heat.
Weather is climate. Climate is changes, the weather changes. Climate models did not produce two tropical storms, one a hurricane, totally out of season. Prior el ninos did not either.
Your certainty about exactly what we can know and what we can't know is charming. Not.
RickA's broken record on climate science:
"Climate science is discredited, therefore their warnings about the damage from AGW that is already occurring is an illusion, therefore do not spend money or change anything that would mitigate AGW because I, RickA, do not want to do anything to change my precious lifestyle even if it results in people dying and losing their homes and their investments as AGW delivers its consequences."
He runs this schtick over and over and over and over and over and over...
Brainstorms #3:
I wish you wouldn't use quote marks when you are making stuff up and trying to attribute it to me.
Greg, how profane may I make my responses to your disingenuous trolls?
Racous, there is no ceiling on that at the moment.