illconsidered | August 7, 2009So the thread on the "There is no evidence" sceptic guide article is too long and off topic. Comments are now closed there, please add any you may still have on that post's topic here.
Comments specific to the "missing hotspot" tangent should go here.
illconsidered | August 7, 2009A recent comment here brought up the frequent contrarian argument that there is a signature patern to enhanced greenhouse gas warming that is missing in the observational data despite showing up in the models. This is notably absent from the How to talk to a climate sceptic guide, something I hope to rectify Real Soon Now(tm).
I left a comment response but thought I may as well put it here in a new thread as it is OT over there.
Here is the referenced graph:
Figure 9.1. Zonal mean atmospheric temperature change from 1890 to 1999 (°C per century) as simulated by the PCM model from (a) solar…
illconsidered | August 6, 2009A very frequent whinge from climate change denialists is that the big bad environmental industrial complex is suppressing any dissent from the pre-approved party line. This is never accompanied by any actual evidence beyond an occasional anecdote.
One such anecdote emerged last June in what was trumpeted as the EPA supressing one of its own internal documents assessing the state of climate science and refuting the IPCC party line.
Have a look at one of Peter Sinclair's excellent Climate Crock of the Week videos below and see just how, yet again, the story falls to pieces with the most…
illconsidered | August 3, 2009 Sipping from the internet firehose...
This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup
skip to bottom Sipping from the internet firehose... August 2, 2009 McKinsey Report, WPO Poll, Nile Basin Conf., G2 Conf., Bonner & Assoc., Cash4Clunkers, Dire Projections Melting Arctic, Methane, Geopolitics, Xcel Perversity, Bangladesh conf., Jellyfish, Late Comments Food Crisis, Food Production Hurricanes, Monsoon, GHGs, Temperatures, Paleoclimate, ENSO, Glaciers, Sea Levels, Satellites Impacts, Forests…
illconsidered | July 28, 2009I have tried to make it quite clear a few times that regardless of no new record, there is no evidence that the underlying rising trend in global surface temperatures has reversed or stopped. But absent a short term rising trend the inattentive public is very vulnerable to disengenouous denialists claiming warming is over (did they ever admit it was happening??). So I am afraid that that talking point will not go away until 1998's record status does so as well.
So when will that happen? I'm not talking about statistically insignificant 0.05oC win by a nose in one record but not another, I…
illconsidered | July 27, 2009 Sipping from the internet firehose...
This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup
skip to bottom Another week of Climate Disruption News Sipping from the internet firehose... July 26, 2009 Chuckle, Clinton in India, Clouds, Pachauri, AMS on Geoengineering, Upcoming Meetings, Carbon Tariffs Melting Arctic, Arctic Geopolitics, Antarctica, Desertec, Aerosols, Grumbine, Noctilucent Clouds, Late Comments Food Crisis, Food Production Hurricanes, Monsoon, GHGs, Temperatures, Paleoclimate, ENSO,…
illconsidered | July 25, 2009This is the headline on a press release from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado at Boulder. They are one of the goto sources for data about sea ice, either arctic or antarctic.
The final extent of arctic sea ice melting this year, as in any other single year, is a product of (large) local weather effects superimposed on (smaller) climate trends. That makes the final minimum extent very hard to predict, which has made it a bit of a horse race for the various scientific agencies that try to understand and model sea ice dynamics.
Not so hard to predict…
illconsidered | July 24, 2009Offered in the spirit of off topic friday funnies:
Have a good weekend!
illconsidered | July 21, 2009It has come up in the comments a couple of times now, so I would like to state for the record that the following is a lousy analogy of a negative feedback. As far as I know, Richard Lindzen came up with this in his speech at the recent Heartland climate sceptic conference.
The analogy is this:
In your car, the gas and brake pedals act as negative feedbacks to reduce speed when you are going too fast and increase it when you are going too slow.
(You can find Lindzen's presentation, with that quote in it, at WUWT)
Lindzen goes on to imply that the climate models act like a car with the brake…
illconsidered | July 20, 2009 Sipping from the internet firehose...
This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup
skip to bottom Another week of Climate Disruption News Sipping from the internet firehose... July 19, 2009 Chuckle, Post G8-MEF, UK Low Carbon Transition Plan, Exxon Algae, Desertec, PETM, THC Melting Arctic, Geopolitics, Carbon Tariffs, Solar Cycle, State of the Future Food Crisis, Food Production Hurricanes, Monsoon, GHGs, Temperatures, Paleoclimate, ENSO, Glaciers, Sea Levels, Satellites Impacts, Forests,…
illconsidered | July 16, 2009
Lots of FUD about climate models get thrown around in the Climate Wars, but what is it they are really doing anyway?
The contrarians would have us believe they just take in a bunch of contrived parameters and spit out the worst case possible scenario for global average temperature increase. But the truth is the kinds of models the IPCC report on are very complex and nuanced.
Since I'm no expert and pictures are worth thousands of words, I would like to offer a few beautiful video realizations of GCM output.
The first is from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) CCSM climate…
illconsidered | July 15, 2009Changes? Well hardly. Apparently the shocking "dog bites man" story of minuscule changes in GISS global anomaly data is making the rounds on denier sites.
A poster here embedded the copy/pasted accusation in an off topic thread, it goes thus:
Looks like Hansen/GISS is up to their old tricks;
Here are the June global temperature anomaly comparisons:
GISS .63C
RSS .075
UAH .001
GISS is way above the other two, but it does not end there apparently 2007 has now replaced 1998 as the second hottest year on record this was achieved not by rigorous scientific study and evaluation but by sleight of…
illconsidered | July 15, 2009So a couple of regular supporting commenters have said they will abandon AFTIC unless I do something about a couple of regular antagonistic commenters. It is a difficult question for me as I do appreciate having help answering the various misinformation that is bandied about here. I really don't have the time myself.
But I have a hard time with the idea of banning anyone for their content rather than for habitual profanity or abusive behavior, even though I agree people like crakar and snowman offer only information pollution.
My advice for dealing with this style of contrainism is mostly…
illconsidered | July 13, 2009 Sipping from the internet firehose...
This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup
skip to bottom Another week of Climate Disruption News July 12, 2009 Chuckle, Top Stories:G8, MEF, Oxfam, Greenland Group, Carbon Tariffs, Biodiesel Tariffs, Princeton Plan Melting Arctic, Antarctica, Tropical Zone Expanding, Pew Survey, 2009 State of the Future Report, Aerosols, Sol Food Crisis, Food vs. Biofuel, Food Production Hurricanes, Carbon Cycle, Temperatures, Paleoclimate, ENSO, Glaciers, Sea Levels,…
illconsidered | July 10, 2009Some comments came up about Ian Plimer`s recent fiction novel "Heaven and Earth".
They were off topic for that thread so I have moved them here and any discussion can follow below.
Thanks.
illconsidered | July 7, 2009Marc Morono (sick) breathlessly announces that Gavin Schmidt has finally admitted that weather is chaotic and GCMs can not model it.
And yes, that is about as shocking an admission as water is wet.
Here is the incriminating quote:
"The problem with climate prediction and projections going out to 2030 and 2050 is that we don't anticipate that they can be tested in the way you can test a weather forecast. It takes about 20 years to evaluate because there is so much unforced variability in the system which we can't predict -- the chaotic component of the climate system -- which is not…
illconsidered | July 6, 2009 Sipping from the internet firehose...
This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup
skip to bottom Another week of Climate Disruption News Sipping from the internet firehose... July 5, 2009 Chuckle, Top Stories:Carbon Tariffs, G8, G8 Rankings, Meetings Galore, IRENA Melting Arctic, Geopolitics, Antarctica, Methane, Education, Late Comments Food Crisis, Food Production Hurricanes, GHGs, Carbon Cycle, Paleoclimate, ENSO, Sea Levels, Satellites Impacts, Forests, Climate Refugees, Wacky Weather,…
illconsidered | July 1, 2009Just wondering how the conspiracy theories about the climatological-industrial complex handle this:
Funding cut for UK climate research?
Hadley's climate research was not alarmist enough?
illconsidered | June 29, 2009(The following is offered as an amusing example of how reality sometimes seems to have a sense of homour:)
My wife is from the Czech Republic and was mentioning to me her family's worries about the recent flooding (they are not in immediate danger). I google-news'ed it and went to the first hit, an AP article, that mentioned among the rest of it that there have been several major floods in the last 10 or fifteen years.
She mentioned that Czech never had these kids of events when she was growing up. I mentioned that increased flooding is an expected consequence of climate change in many…
illconsidered | June 29, 2009 Sipping from the internet firehose...
This weekly posting is brought to you courtesy of H. E. Taylor. Happy reading, I hope you enjoy this week's Global Warming news roundup
skip to bottom Another week of Climate Disruption News June 28, 2009 Chuckle, Top Stories:Waxman-Markey, MTR Coal Protests, Repression Melting Arctic, Geopolitics, MEF, Sarychev, Carbon Tariffs, 140 Million Year Cycle, Late Comments Food Crisis, Food vs. Biofuel, Food Production Hurricanes, Monsoon, GHGs, Carbon Cycle, Temperatures, Paleoclimate, ENSO, Glaciers, Sea Levels, Satellites Impacts, Forests, Corals,…