Out with the old year, in with the new...with Insolence

As 2015 draws to a close today, all I can think is: Another year in the can. Since my family is here, and it's a holiday, I'm going to keep this one brief and wish everyone a Happy New Year.

In addition, I can't help but wonder what's going to happen in 2016. Who could have predicted that last year would begin with a measles outbreak centered at Disneyland that would end up inspiring a law in California that I never would have thought possible, namely SB 277, which eliminates nonmedical exemptions to school vaccine mandates. Who could have predicted that the antivaccine movement, in particular Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., would get all chummy with the Nation of Islam? Knowing that predictions are a fool's errand, I still can't resist making a few before I retire to my parents' house to see sisters and my nephews. So here goes. Most predictions will be painfully obvious; some not. In 2016, I predict:

  1. As the 2016-2017 school year approaches, which is the first year nonmedical exemptions will be banned, the antivaccine movement in California will get even crazier. (I know, I know. This is obvious, but I thought I'd start with low hanging fruit.)
  2. Stanislaw Burzynski will slither away from justice yet again. (I really hope I'm mistaken about this one, but fear that I am not.)
  3. Robert O. Young will also slither away from justice. (Again, I hope I'm wrong, but I'm in a pessimistic mood.)
  4. There will be more measles and pertussis outbreaks, thanks to antivaccine loons. (Yes, this is a no-brainer.)
  5. I will be depressed in May because, due to a conflict with my real job, I will not be able to speak at the Science-Based Medicine day of NECSS.
  6. We will finally see the documents that the "CDC whistleblower" William Thompson gave to Rep. Bill Posey and that Ben Swann currently has. There will be no evidence in them that the CDC covered up a link between the MMR vaccine and autism in African-American boys, but antivaccine loons will do their best to spin it that way. (Some readers know that I'm cheating a bit on this one.)
  7. The sham that is right-to-try will spread to most of the remaining states that haven't passed it yet.
  8. More academic medical centers will embrace quackademic medicine.
  9. Finally, because of all these pessimistic predictions, there will be much Insolence in 2016.

Oh, and maybe I'll have to attend one of these Michigan Psychic Fairs. They're all over southeast Michigan, a couple of locations pretty close to where I live.

What are your predictions, my minions?

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As someone said, prediction is hard, especially about the future, so I think I'll pass on that; I just wanted to thank Orac and the minions for all you do, and wish everyone a happy new year!

By palindrom (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

1. Dr. Bob Sears becomes progressively more militant, gradually alienating some of his Maughmee Brigade fanbase.

2. Dr. Jay Gordon becomes somewhat more rational, and makes a public apology for his role in the death of Eliza Jane Scovill. It's fine to say you wouldn't do it again, Jay, or would do it differently - let's hear you say exactly what you would and would not do, out loud.

3. I am trembling as I type this. It's almost too much, but I have to say it.

RFK Junior will say he's going to write another book.

*weeping*

CBS fires Swann for making up a story endangering public health and airing it as if it were journalistic documentary.

I predict....
more of the same.

A few highlights:

Filmmaker/ professional charlatan Andy Wakefield will continue in his quest to remain relevant, get money and score points with his female admirers by attempting to look *au courant* fashion-wise ( see video posted at AoA today)

Mikey Adams, currently enraptured by outsider politics and survivalist claptrap, will spew his nonsense via both print and internet radio. If you need an all-purpose knife or bungee cord, has he got a deal for you! ( see RangerGear.com).

AoA's Managing Editor and anti-science mouthpiece will branch out into a new profession as she assists a martial arts instructor in teaching children anti-bullying skills. She also runs a martial arts association. ( see her twit account)

Idiot/ polymath Gary Null will expand his play-doctor antics in Texas with the help of various medical enablers. Cures are promised beyond what SBM can provide utilising all the tricks of his abysmal trade. There's also a slimming spa, training facility, cooking school and 12 step-like programme.

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

And a happy, productive new year to Orac and all of his minions!

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

I don't do predictions, I just wish Orac and everybody else who visits this blog a happy new year.

I still can't even buy a plane ticket to go home and visit friends and family out west. Sigh.

The stupid frikkin' University I cam back to Earth to save just doesn't want to get on the boat, I guess.

Oh well. Bastards. Pretty sick of the place anyway, to be honest.

-JP

Speaking of Mikey, he's got a post floating around FB telling readers how to identify a sociopath.

My dog though I had lost my mind, I was laughing so hard.

@ Panacea:

Ha!
The other idiot goes through protracted tirades about sociopaths and psychopaths whilst listing their attributes as well.
The world is quite an adventure for those without skill in self evaluation and self regulation.

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

Predictions:
1. Orac will continue to amaze us on RI and the NSSOB with his biting insolence and wit, as well as awesome research skills.
2. The minions will continue to add commentary and take on the chew toys in the comments.
3. I STILL won't see my long-overdue Big Pharma checks (DW - you have an in with our scaly overlord - can you find out where they are? Please? They're threatening to repossess the Mercedes AND the swimming pool!)

Happy New Year to all the minions, near and far, those already in 2016 and those still awaiting (9 hrs and 10 minutes for me on the US east coast), to Orac in the same time zone, and our scaly overlord wherever he is.

1. Sears, Gordon, Tenpenny, Wolfson, Humphries, Palevsky and all the other AV quack "doctors" continue their for-profit attack on public health.

2. The American Academy of Pediatrics will remain hypogonadic, continuing to do nothing about Sears, Gordon or the NVIC.

3. We see a true polarization in this election year between science and anti-science, showing just how damn poor science education is in the US.

4. More VPD outbreaks in areas of low vaccination (not really a prediction but a statement of cause and effect)

5. The "whistleblower" gets an undeserved boost from Trump, making vaccination harder.

6. Record numbers of face palms; carpal tunnel syndrome ensues.

By Chris Hickie (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

Happy New Year to all the minions, near and far, those already in 2016

HA HA we have had our grubby hands all over the New Year for nine hours already, it will be all second-hand by the time it gets to you.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

I predict that 2016 will be a leap year, and that its prime factors will be 2, 3 and 7. Everything else is uncertain.

Now put on your sunglasses because perihelion is only days away.

Merry New Year to Orac and the minion crew! May our filthy pharma lucre checks not get lost in the mail this year.

@ MI Dawn:

The Scaly Overlord is currently in Ibiza with his party crowd and beyond anyone's- including my- reach. We'll try again on Tuesday next.

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

Orac will receive the 2016 Pulitzer Prize for Anti-vaccine criticism.

Who will be the RI minion that nominates him and pays the $50 filing fee?

Good Luck Orac!

By Michael J. Dochniak (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

I'll bet you $20 that Burzynski goes down this year, Orac.

Bob @17 -- Would "go down" be taken to mean "losing his right to practice medicine", or perhaps something more severe? We can always hope ...

By palindrom (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

I predict that I will be accused of being a shill. (What, too easy?)

By Douglas Barnes (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

As someone said, prediction is hard, especially about the future, so I think I’ll pass on that; I just wanted to thank Orac and the minions for all you do, and wish everyone a happy new year!

The I Ching actually helps a lot with this, but of course nothing is ultimately written in the stars; we've been making it up all along. Some of us will suffer more than others when it comes right down to the wire again.

So it goes.

His Dark Materials, etc.

-JP

1. Best wishes to Orac & all for the New Year.

2. Re SB277's implementation & the Society for the Promotion of Vaccine Preventable Diseases: I predict there will be vicious infighting between various factions, for example between the Dana Gorman-Tim Bolen faction & the Canary Party Faction.

I predict there will be vicious infighting between various factions, for example between the Dana Gorman-Tim Bolen faction & the Canary Party Faction.

And the kid will piss off or be pissed at every faction. If he ever updates his blog again, that is.

I predict that I will be accused of being a shill.

I predict that I will insult people, and that Narad will make harsh judgments about the Scienceblogs webpage design.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

herr doktor bimler@27

I predict that I will insult people, and that Narad will make harsh judgments about the Scienceblogs webpage design.

Harsh but true judgements. On that note, I predict ScienceBlogs will stubbornly stick with this horribly broken mobile design throughout the year.

Try not to use up all the New Years, gut doktor. There's still 5 hours before it makes its way over here.

By capnkrunch (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

I also predict that herr doktor bimler will make me chortle in the dark in the middle of the night, reading RI on my phone. Mr. Delphine, semi-somnolent, will ask, "What's so funny?" to which I will reply, "Just some hilarious guy on the other side of the world."

Happy New Year & many thanks to Orac & the usual suspects - and one for lilady.

I make the easy prediction my name will be on the list of Pharma Shills.
Wow, amazing, I am already there.

Now where is my damn check?

I further predict, as others have, much entertaining Insolence.

By daniel pyron (not verified) on 31 Dec 2015 #permalink

Happy New Year & many thanks to Orac & the usual suspects – and one for lilady.

I imagine that she will be found on Long Island one of these days.

I mean, whatever, though; I'm a Buddhist, you know how we are, reincarnation, yadda yadda yadda.

I predict that yet again I will be labelled as a "big pharma social media operative" .

Yesterday, December 31, was the last day for the Recall Senator Richard Pan committee to turn in signatures. They needed about 37,000 signatures for the recall procedure to proceed.

How many signatures were turned in? Zero.

Another epic fail for the Society for Promotion of Vaccine Preventable Disease.

Aaaannnd some people are mighty vexed with the Recall Pan Committee

Recall petitions are an important and legitimate part of our election process in California and the vast majority of those gathering signatures are legitimate and aboveboard. However, the process can also be an opportunity for misrepresentation and fraud. We, the undersigned, wish to petition Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert to launch an investigation into allegations of voter fraud concerning the PanRecall Committee (FPPC ID #1377741).

https://www.change.org/p/investigate-pan-recall-committee?recruiter=314…

Liz, that's frigging hilarious!
If people don't rally to your political position, call for an investigation!
If you have no data, call for an investigation ( or start suing people).
Maybe they'll start up a campaign on twitter.

Happy New Year!

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

For Orac and the minions, may 2016's drama be external to you all (so much the easier to blog about, no?)! :)

By Scottynuke (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

We, the undersigned, wish to petition Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert to launch an investigation into allegations of voter fraud concerning the PanRecall Committee

So if I am reading this correctly, the petitioner (Andrew Liebich) was active in the original recall petition, but is now concerned that the recall organisers were grifters who exploited his gullible enthusiasm and misspent the funds they solicited.
One can only cheer him on, and hope that his belatedly-activated Road-to-Damascus GPS unit continues to function.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

So, what else is new?

dear ( ?) old Mikey, today, ever trying to create buzz, declares his friend Alex a liar and then says...

" truth be told * all of us in alternative media have stalkers and death threats almost constantly* "

Right.
And the other idiot at prn.fm has been "hacked" over and over again. You know, he's a threat to the CDC, world governments et alia.

I suppose it means that they have no answers for SBM-based questions. Conjure threats and hacks to vilify the reasonable.
As Orac says, " Same as it ever was".
(Or was that Talking Heads?_

* in bold

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

Roger Kulp: The article, by Lisa Aliferis and Olivia Allen-Price, refers to a preliminary release of data. The actual article title was "More Bay Area Kids Getting Vaccinated, Preliminary Numbers Show".

The complete report will be out January 15, 2016. It will be interesting to see changes.

The other thing that Aliferis and Allen-Price did not mention (they may not have been aware of it) is the very much toughened immunization reporting requirements and school exclusion policies adopted by the Immunization branch over the summer of 2015. This was an administrative change, not a legislative change, so it happened without much fanfare.

I'll put the text of the letter in my next comment.

This letter went out to the California schools in late August.

To:SchoolSuperintendents andSchoolPrincipals
cc:SchoolNurses and SchoolStaff
Re:Mandatory immunization reporting 2015-2016 audit guide

In accordance with the recent addition of an immunization component to the required financial and compliance audits of local educational agencies,in 2015-2016 California public schools will be audited if they:

·Do not submit immunization assessment reports to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) in the fall of 2015 or

·Report that more than 25% of kindergarteners were conditional entrants in the fall of 2015.

If these criteria had been applied in the 2014-2015 academic year, up to 567 schools with kindergarteners and 234 schools with 7th grade students would have been audited.

To avoid a potential audit or audit finding:

·Submit your school’s immunization reports by October 15 for kindergarten and November 1 for grade 7.

·If a child is not up-to-date on immunizations, do not let him/her attend school unless an exemption applies. Ensure that all conditionally admitted students are accurately reported and that proper follow-up procedures are in place. CDPH found that most students who were identified as “conditional entrants” were improperly classified (based on a sample of kindergarten immunization records during the 2013-14 school year). These students were behind in their immunizations, and should have been excluded from school until they received the catch up shots that were due at the time of school entry. See attached FAQs.

We urge you to adhere to the “No shots? No records? No school,” rule and support staff with dedicated and protected time for immunization related work, including trainings, data entry, and follow up.

See the Education Audit Appeals Panel website at http://eaap.ca.gov for additional information on the 2015-2016 audit guide.

For information regarding immunization and health checkup requirements, please contact your county office of education or local health department. Additional information, including tools for your staff, is available from CDPH’s Shots for School website at www.ShotsforSchool.org.

Sincerely,
SarahRoyce,MD,MPH
Chief,Immunization Branch
California Department of Public Health

Negative attention by media and regulators will force Kerri Rivera and Jim Humble to move to Ecuador, which passed generous asylum laws last year. (An archbishop in their pro-MMS church has already moved there, for what he has implied to be for asylum reasons.) Despite being fugitives from justice, Rivera and Humble will still have followings in the anti-vaxxer movement.

By Sebastian L. J… (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

And Man prayed to the Dinosaurs, and he saw that things were good enough for Now.

-JP

*
**
***
****
*****

You know, etc. Blah, blah, blah, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Whatever.

;-)

"dear old Mikey" has a promotion going on NN, "selling" folding credit card knives for 1 cent each.

The TSA is worried about an upsurge in people bringing these knives to airport checkpoints (and presumably onto planes, unless you think screeners are catching them all).

http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/tsa-officials-warn-of-credit-…

Mike is covering his a$$ by advising against recipients of his promotional knives taking them to the airport, lest they be "groped" by TSA personnel.

Thanks for the added safety in flying, Mikey!

By Dangerous Bacon (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

@ Dangerous Bacon:

Yeah, Mike believes that airport security are there to grope people. I always thought that they were there to screen out potential threats to flights. It illustrates how his mind works.

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

A year or so ago, TSA wanted to loosen the restrictions on knives. It would make sense to do so. It would allow the TSA agents to concentrate on the more serious threats. Anybody who tried to take over an airplane with one of these credit card knives (or the small knives that TSA proposed letting on board) would have to fight off the entire passenger cabin. It would very much be like the great train attack in, IIRC, France.

The 9-11 attacks succeeded only because the philosophy was to cooperate with hijackers and everybody go home at the end of the day. They would not succeed today.

It would very much be like the great train attack in, IIRC, France.

Or the Leytonstone Station incident that launched the "you ain't no Muslim, bruv" meme. I know it's terrible, but I had to laugh at the would-be terrorist trying to threaten a station full of people with a hobby knife and getting pelted with bottles. I don't have especially strong feelings about gun control either way, but I couldn't help but reflect that the whole situation would probably have gone much differently if it had taken place in America, where guns are easy to obtain.

I predict that CVS pharmacy will remove all homeopathic remedies from their stores, citing that to continue would constitute fraud.

How's that for optimistic?

By Mike Callahan (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

Ooh ooh--I have one.

Jeffrey Smith (flying yogi of the anti-GMO brigade) is starting a campaign about GMOs in animal feeds. Expect dreadful lies, Seralini citations, and sad kittens with syringes (or something).

He actually made his upcoming project known already. Click the links to his text in this piece: http://www.salon.com/2015/12/05/stop_telling_me_im_poisoning_my_kids_fo… So this isn't so much a prediction as an FYI.

By mem_somerville… (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

Prediction #10 - some attractive wellness blogger will die of a treatable disease/be exposed as a total fraud.

I predict:
1. Astrology will be more popular than astronomy.
2. Homeopathy will be more profitable than cell therapy.
3. Bibliometrics and impact factors will remain the golden standard of « scientific » evaluation.
4. There will be more conformists than innovators.
5. And the number of « scientists » will keep increasing

I wish you all a happy new year.

By Daniel Corcos (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

At least 2 GOP presidential candidates will make new anti-science or pseudo-science pronouncements . Food Babe (Vani Hari) will lose support and income, possibly leading to personal financial crisis. Bigfoot,Yeti,Nessie, Ogopogo, and ghosts will continue to be camera-shy. Predictions are hard, especially about the future. The Toronto Maple Leafs will not win the Stanley Cup. Now that one was easy.

By DanielWainfleet (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

Speaking of the TSA, I predict they will continue to be far too invasive and for the most part ineffective.

On a similar note, I predict stronger pushes by the three letter agencies to legislate against encryption result in a misguided law that requires companies like Google and Apple to hold their customer's private keys so they can be turned over with a warrant.

Hey, Orac never said they had to be predictions relevant to topics he blogs about.

By capnkrunch (not verified) on 01 Jan 2016 #permalink

The app sends a push notification to the user every time an anti-vaccine comment is posted online. The user can then click the link provided and be taken directly to the story.
“We are already working on improvements to the app,” said lead developer Paul Orac. “We are going to be adding the functionality of pre-written comments. The shill can then simply choose which stock response they want to use for their comment.”

http://thespudd.com/new-pharma-shill-app-shillify-notifies-shills-when-…

By Chris Hickie (not verified) on 02 Jan 2016 #permalink

Dan Olmsted ( AoA) discusses his 40 year career in journalism wherein he learned that sometimes when cooler heads merely see a conspiracy theory there actually IS a conspiracy.
Bad cops, bad pharma, bad government.

Funny, but I think I've heard that line before**- could THAT be a conspiracy also?

** directly, via Jake, indirectly via prn.fm

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 02 Jan 2016 #permalink

@Denice #4

Andrew Wakefield is really rocking the skinny jeans there, isn't he?

No, not really. Also, I think he needs some of his friend's alt medicine. He is looking really haggard these days.

Re TSA, I see them as pretty ineffective if they are unable to identify the correct ankle with the plate and screws in it.

Oh, and my rock-solid prediction for next year, I will grow another year older if I don't die first.

By Not a Troll (not verified) on 02 Jan 2016 #permalink

Speaking of the TSA, I predict they will continue to be far too invasive and for the most part ineffective.

I've found MCO to be consistently low-hassle: no shoe carnival, no belts-off, no laptop-out-of-bag. Dogs and magnetometer most recently. (One time last fall, dogs were the only security out of SEA, but that was apparently anomalous.)

'I’ve found MCO to be consistently low-hassle"

Thanks for the tip. Too bad they aren't much of a hub.

By Not a Troll (not verified) on 02 Jan 2016 #permalink

I would be satisfied with Orac's #9

By perodatrent (not verified) on 02 Jan 2016 #permalink

Andrew Wakefield is really rocking the skinny jeans there, isn’t he?

You bastard.

To comment on my own @64 : They are going to hold up on payments for daycare reimbursement and other payments to families who do not vaccinate. I like the idea.

They are going to hold up on payments for daycare reimbursement and other payments to families who do not vaccinate. I like the idea.

Although I've been aware of this, I've only now looked up the details: What is going to be cut off is the Family Tax Benefit Part A, the Child Care Benefit, and the Child Care Rebate (which offhand appears to be a non–means-tested version of the CCB; I'm sure someone will correct me).

With respect to the first two, the law appears to be regressively structured. Whether it is in practice, of course, depends on the demographics of the affected population, but I'm instinctively wary of this sort of thing. I'm reminded that a perennial question at MDC back when I perused it was whether WIC benefits in the U.S. could be withheld on the grounds of vaccination status (they can't, nor should they be IMNSHO).

^ The link is to a PDF.

From a dedicated lurker, Happy New Year to the mighty Orac and his minions. Long may you continue to fight the good fight.

And may those Big Pharma cheques finally arrive.

No predictions from me - I can't even predict what happened in 2015.

Hey, Orac.

I have a lonely trio of predictions to offer - when that malaria vaccine is complete, anti-vaxxers will claim malaria wasn't that bad or was renamed. Maybe both.

But what I really wanted to talk to you and your readers about was New Year Resolutions.

I know the minions are familiar with CD/MMS quackery that is MMS/CDC since the evil overlord has written about this before: http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2012/05/25/selling-bleach-as-a-cure-f…

But anyways, my new year's resolution is simple: Make 2016 the year that MMS/CD stops and goes down in the history books as a horror story of how we used to treat disabled people.

http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2012/05/25/selling-bleach-as-a-cure-f…

But no one is an island and I need your help. Is there any way you and/or your minions could get some sort of guide or something written for teachers on how to spot if a kiddo in their classroom is being subjected to MMS/CD?

I should probably confess my sneakier purpose: somehow, I suspect this blog is crawling with mandated reporters...and yes, I somehow manage to be evil and good at the same time.

Muwhaha....penny for the kddies.

Umm...

In addition to malaria in #69 - something somehow got me thinking that if an HIV/AIDS vaccine was discovered, anti-vaxxers and right-wing religious types would probably claim it's not necessary to vaccinate children because a. it's sexually transmitted (the same they say about HBV vaccine) b. it would promote promiscuity (as HPV vaccine) and c. AIDS isn't actually that dangerous, right, we have medication, after all.
And on the other hand, many governments and people around the world would love to get the vaccine but would not be able to pay for it.

Alia says (#70),

...if an HIV/AIDS vaccine was discovered, anti-vaxxers and right-wing religious types would probably claim it’s not necessary to vaccinate children...

MJD says with respectful insolence,

Hypothetical pharmaceutical-advertisement for a pediatric HIV/AIDS vaccine:

Give the gift of love and herd immunity, prekindergarten (PK) HIV/AIDS vaccines and boosters are now available.

Talk to your pediatrician to see if the HIV/AIDS vaccine is right for your sexually active PK child.

By Michael J. Dochniak (not verified) on 03 Jan 2016 #permalink

Give the gift of love and herd immunity, prekindergarten (PK) HIV/AIDS vaccines and boosters are now available.

Talk to your pediatrician to see if the HIV/AIDS vaccine is right for your sexually active PK child.

Congratulations, you have hit the trifecta of stupid, ignorant, and tasteless.

@MJD: I have to agree with Delphine. That is probably one of the worst (if not the worst) things you have ever said in the comments. Do you seriously NOT know that HIV/AIDS can be transmitted through blood and body fluids (i.e. saliva) and some PK kids are "biters" who can break the skin of another kid or family member? If there were a good vaccine to protect a child from getting HIV/AIDs, wouldn't you want your child to have it?

I thought better of you. I see I was mistaken.

MI Dawn says (#73),

If there were a good vaccine to protect a child from getting HIV/AIDs, wouldn’t you want your child to have it?

MJD says,

Because HIV/AIDS is predominantly a sexually transmitted disease and infants are not sexually active... No

But hypothetically, I'd talk to a really good pediatrician before making a decision.

@Delphine (#72),

I predict nothing but happy vaccines for you in 2016.

By Michael J. Dochniak (not verified) on 03 Jan 2016 #permalink

A note of potential optimism: I have talked to two CVS pharmacists now who are exasperated by the presence of homeopathic products in their stores and refuse to mention them--ever--unless specifically asked.

Yesterday a very experienced pharmacist told me she was retiring in a month and had given the same spiel for a while in response to inquiries about homeopathic products--they probably won't do any harm but that people should use what's known to be most effective. She would find an excuse to change the subject before anyone could think too much about the implications of that advice. Maybe some older pharmacists will follow suit. I've met a few younger ones who obviously hem and haw when you ask about whether zinc lozenges really shorten a cold, for example. They have to follow company policy and tend to duck all questions about homeopathy. Maybe 2016 will see some progress with that.

Michael, were ignorance bliss, you'd be rapturous.

Because HIV/AIDS is predominantly a sexually transmitted disease and infants are not sexually active… No

Just because HIV is "predominantly a sexually transmitted disease" doesn't mean that there aren't other ways of transmitting it. Hep B is considered a sexually transmitted disease and it's often transmitted by bites and scratches.
Delphien nailed it. You have hit the trifecta of stupid, ignorant, and tasteless.

By Julian Frost (not verified) on 03 Jan 2016 #permalink

I'll take a bit of a stab in the dark. Has an antivaxxer claimed that a disease outbreak was caused by the CDC in order to increase vaccine uptake yet? If not, I'll predict that it's going to happen this year.

Julian Frost says (#76),

Just because HIV is “predominantly a sexually transmitted disease” doesn’t mean that there aren’t other ways of transmitting it.

MJD says,

Article entitled, "How schools are getting it wrong on HIV and Aids".

http://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/nov/24/schools-getting-wrong-…

@Nomad (#77),

I predict that a 2016 study will indicate that anti-vaxxers, that received the CDCs recommended childhood vaccinations, have a higher incidence of Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD).

By Michael J. Dochniak (not verified) on 04 Jan 2016 #permalink

Gee, MJD. You DO like to double down on the stupid stuff, don't you? So there are schools in the UK that give erroneous information regarding HIV life expectancy, and others that give students a hard time about their meds.

Maternal-child transmission *is* the MOST COMMON way for a child to get HIV. Contact with most body fluids will not lead to transmission unless the other person has an open wound (scratch, cut, etc). While it's not common for a child to bite another hard enough to break the skin, it can happen.

Just because an illness is most commonly transmitted through sexual activity, doesn't mean it's the ONLY way.

Back into the killfile for you. I don't like reading stupid. ODD...aren't you cute. Creating a new, artificial disorder.

@ MI Dawn:

I am loath to correct you but yes indeed, there is a new entry in the DSM 5 called that.
HOWEVER I think he doesn't really get the concept or else he wouldn't have made that non-joke. I hear similar in my travels around woo-topia.

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 04 Jan 2016 #permalink

Denice Walter: thanks for the information. I haven't worked with DSM-V; to be honest, my last real work with DSM was way back with DSM-III (although I have looked at IV, I never worked with it).

@ MI Dawn:

It may actually be in the IV as well.

At any rate, I find that the altie faction often toss stones whilst living in glass houses.
One woo-meister or another rags on and on about sociopaths or obsessives amongst their opponents when really....

By Denice Walter (not verified) on 04 Jan 2016 #permalink

To everyone: may the new year bring health, happiness to you.

According to the "Health Ranger": Chipotle's foodborne illness outbreaks have been caused by the food terrorist wing of all the bio-tech firms.

In other words; it is not the fault of the restaurant that you got sick but the evil bio-tech firms who are a subsidiary of big pharma.

I predict that Posey et. al will NOT get the autism/vaccine hearings they have been posturing about... because the documents have been revealed. I'm not sure about the collapse of the whole #CDCwhistleblower manufactroversy, though, as some people are immune to reason.

Congressman Posey released the documents to a journalist recently and, given that they are now in the public domain, Dorit Reiss and I requested that they be made available to us as well. Mr. Posey’s office graciously granted our request and I have spent some time going through them.

For those hoping for an exciting look into CDC malfeasance, sorry to disappoint you. Not only is it not present here, but these documents are very mundane and repetitive. Many people seem to think there will be evidence that the CDC are covering up. No “Vaccines cause autism! How do we cover this up”. Nothing like it. Wakefield and Hooker have already cherry picked–and misrepresented–whatever they could to “best” make their case.

http://leftbrainrightbrain.co.uk/2016/01/04/the-william-thompson-docume…

I predict more people will be pushed out of windows because Obama will make murderers think twice before applying for a gun.

Palindrome @19 Sorry for the delayed reply. I think that the TMB will get him and that will lose him his license. Once a physician loses his license, depending on the reason for the loss, there may be more legal troubles afterwards. That, of course, would only be gravy.

Predictions contrary to above:

1. While "the antivaccine movement in California will get even crazier", this fringiness will just hasten the death of anti-vax as a functional public health menace. No significant outbreaks this year.

2. CBS won't fire Ben Swann because he doesn't work for CBS, damnit! He'll continue to pull ratings for his local affiliate, to the joy of his bosses, and will only leave if he gets offered a more lucrative or high-exposure gig at some national wing-nut 'news' outlet.

3. Hahnemannian homeopathy, already a tiny thing in the U.S. with relatively very few practitioners, will be further over-run in defining what 'homeopathic' means by CVS, Walgreens, and other big OTC retailers, who will continue to sell greater quantities of 'homeopathic' OTC remedies for common ailments — zinc cold lozenges, etc. — regardless of how many of their pharmacists object. Shelf space for 'homeopathic' products will expand, and the label will continue to become more meaningless, as it WILL be applied to things that are herbal, 'natural', folk-remedies etc. that have nothing whatsoever to do with dilutions, water memory, or 'like cures like'.

4. The Food Babe will continue to wage successful blackmail campaigns against large corporations — losing some maybe, but winning enough to keep her star rising. She'll become even more 'mainstream' in the CAM universe. (I didn't know she had a board of 'prominent' advisers, but she does, and Mark Hyman is on it.

Prediction that will surprise no one here:
Though I resolve for the New Year to spend less time on RI and SBM, and to keep my comments shorter, I'll suffer a failure of willpower, and feel the wrath of Narad.

To our host, minions, lurkers and all, 'thanks for the vine' and sincere best wishes for 2016.

Gilbert,

I predict more people will be pushed out of windows because Obama will make murderers think twice before applying for a gun.

You mean if only gun laws were less strict in the UK we might deal with our terrible defenestration problem?

By Krebiozen (not verified) on 05 Jan 2016 #permalink

we might deal with our terrible defenestration problem?

I had to look that word up... But, yes.

@DLC:
It looks like this guy is also on palliative chemotherapy, which can have a remarkable (if temporary) effect on high-grade malignancies such as lung cancers.

I have a few predictions for the year. In no particular order:

3. After a reasonably mild flu season there will be more pronouncements from the usual suspects that the influenza vaccine is both ineffective and complete unnecessary.

17. Genralissimo Franciso Franco will continue to hold up his valiant fight to remain dead.

42. The love affair of businesses with cloud services will continue despite some rather significant security breaches. These will mostly be caused by a failure of the businesses themselves to properly secure and monitor their access, since after all it's in the cloud and dealing with your own security is so last millennium.

There will be new treatments for cancer touted based on ancient wisdom and old, likely discredited concepts. The obvious contradiction here (much as in the marketing slogan "new and improved") will be brushed aside.

ℵ0 Someone will be wrong on the internet.

By Mephistopheles… (not verified) on 10 Jan 2016 #permalink

Please number the last two predictions as "pi" and "aleph null" as you read them.

By Mephistopheles… (not verified) on 10 Jan 2016 #permalink

@TBruce #91 : Yes, it seems so to me. You know, I do sympathize with his position. Being told you have End-Stage cancer must be fairly horrible. Further, I'm relatively sure that he is getting some relief from his chemo side effects by using the pot oil. But the hard cold slap in the face truth is, Pot oil is not a cure for cancer, and while the post says (disclaimer-wise) that he doesn't want to call it a cure, but . . . But, it's false hope.

As someone said, prediction is hard, especially about the future, so I think I’ll pass on that; I just wanted to thank Orac and the minions for all you do, and wish everyone a happy new year!

Good thinking, palindrom!

;-)

HA HA we have had our grubby hands all over the New Year for nine hours already, it will be all second-hand by the time it gets to you.

Ah, but second-hand junk is the best junk. You should know that already, BIMLER!

;-)