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Hello, Flo, Where Will You Go?

By cmooney on September 5, 2006.

i-528062ca1f79bf897f9b9c7765d6661d-FloTrackSept5.gif

The NHC has now upgraded the latest thick cloud blob to a tropical storm, making it Florence. You can see the five day cone above. Note: the forecasters describe the latest disturbance as "VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE." Indeed, they've had a fair spot of trouble even pinpointing the center of this storm, so all bets are off right now as to its ultimate destination.

Forecasting intensity is also tricky, as usual. The hurricane specialists bring Flo up to 85 knots within 120 hours but fully admit it could be stronger:

THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR FLORENCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE BY THAT TIME.

Well, at least the media will be happy: They have another tropical storm to cover. I am heading out of here for two weeks tomorrow morning, as mentioned earlier, so if this one comes towards the mid-Atlantic states, sadly I'll have to miss it....

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hurricanes

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