Forecast Fracas

My latest "Storm Pundit" post is up over at The Daily Green. It's entitled "Forecasts, Fulminations, and Flossie," and it gives the rundown on the latest prognostications of Atlantic hurricane activity, as well as discussing the strong (and weirdly named) tropical storm now possibly headed towards Hawaii.

Meanwhile, the website ClimateandInsurance.org, created by the National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies, just interviewed me about Storm World. I say stuff like this:

I wanted to tell a story that provided a chance to explore some of the knottiest questions at the interface between science and politics. Questions like, how should politicians approach and use scientific information, which is often characterized by high levels of uncertainty? And what's the role of the media, and of scientists themselves, in translating their complex knowledge into a form that policymakers can use?

The fraught and sometimes even nasty argument over the relationship between hurricanes and global warming provided a perfect opportunity to dig into these questions. Here's a scientific issue that's undeniably important, and yet also laden with much uncertainty; indeed, scientists are deeply divided over it, fighting over it.

Meanwhile, our coastlines are extremely vulnerable to deadly hurricanes, so the stakes couldn't be higher. In this context, how do we get past mere conflict and scientific uncertainty and into the realm of productive policy action? It's a question that fascinates me--and one that's extraordinarily important for society to come to grips with.

Finally, Discover magazine also just reviewed the book. Honestly I can't quite figure out what to say about this review; it's not really good, not really bad...it just kind of...is. You can read it here.

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Hurricane Flossie continues to approach the Hawaiian islands, although it remains quite hard to predict precisely where the storm will go or how strong it will be when it gets there. But we know this: Flossie has already made quite a habit of defying forecasts and expectations. This storm has now…
There are inevitably plenty of typos, but after the jump I've pasted in the transcript of my Science Friday conversation with NPR's Ira Flatow about hurricanes and global warming. Callers raised several interesting questions. Enjoy. National Public Radio (NPR) August 24, 2007 Friday SHOW: Talk Of…
Tropical Storm Karen has formed in the open Atlantic, and it's simply gigantic. Accordingly, I've done my latest "Storm Pundit" post about Karen, hurricane size, and what this storm--our eleventh of the year--says about the accuracy of some of the pre-season forecasts. You can read the piece here.…
Well well well. 15 named storms this year after all. The last (um, we think) is in the Caribbean right now, spinning way past the season's official endpoint. Its name is Olga. It started out subtropical, but has since become a fully tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 knots at its…

I guess the reviewer didn't like Storm World's narrative style as much as I did (click my name), but she clearly liked the book and thought readers of Discovery will, too.

Bottom line: I predict this will be one of many well-deserved boosts to sales, though it will be hard to attribute how many sales come from which place.

Would you, as the resident (on sciblogs)authority on global warming and storms, please do a blog about the absence of storms this summer. It was predicted that this would be a very active year, yet there have been almost no hurricanes in the Atlantic and no tornados in the tornado belt. (I live in Oklahoma so I am very aware of the tornado season).
I am not a "denier". In fact I have compiled my own book - of material copied from the Net (Real Climate, etc. - that I use to explain the situation to local deniers.

Karl,
We are just now headed into the active part of the storm season - most hurricanes occur from August 1 on (see here). There is still plenty of time for an active season!

I reviewed a recent collection of Dyson's essays, The Scientist as Rebel. He's brilliant, an entertaining writer, and an iconoclast.

He loves to provoke thought just for the sake of argument, and sometimes gets carried away with it. He doesn't deny anthropogenic global warming, but he just wants to throw sand into the gears of a potential bandwagon. He expects readers to challenge him, just as he challenges them.

Click my name for the review.

Karl:

Would you, as the resident (on sciblogs)authority on global warming and storms, please do a blog about the absence of storms this summer.

Please read up on the typical progression of an Atlantic hurricane season. In particular, note table 1, which shows that an 'average' Atlantic hurricane season will have 3 tropical storms by August 20. This year, the third tropical storm, Chantal, reached tropical storm strength on July 31st , about 20 days early. There has not been an 'absence of storms this summer' , and perhaps that is why it has not been blogged about.