Further Frustrations Forecasting Flossie's Fluctuations (& Other Hurricane Stuff)

Hurricane Flossie continues to approach the Hawaiian islands, although it remains quite hard to predict precisely where the storm will go or how strong it will be when it gets there. But we know this: Flossie has already made quite a habit of defying forecasts and expectations. This storm has now remained at Category 4 intensity for more than 48 hours, despite steady predictions of weakening (and no advance prediction that Flossie would become so strong to begin with).

My latest "Storm Pundit" column, discussing Flossie in greater detail, can now be read here.

Meanwhile, there are lots of other hurricane and storm-punditry related updates. First, Storm World has triggered another burst of reviews and reactions, including some very quotable ones from Alexandra Witze at Nature Reports: Climate Change ("Tempestuous Times"), Kate Sheppard at The American Prospect ("The Story of the Hurricane"), and Amanda Marcotte at Pandagon ("When Severe Weather Becomes a Partisan Issue"). I'll provide more on these latest reviews after the jump.

Finally, this weekend the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel published my op-ed about the latest Holland/Webster study on Atlantic hurricane numbers, the debate it has inevitably engendered, and what we should all take away from the current fracas. You can read that piece here.

......

Perhaps more than before, the latest reviews of Storm World have focused on the admittedly strong contrast between my current book and The Republican War on Science. Consider for example Alexandra Witze's review in Nature Reports: Climate Change:

The Republican War on Science was, in fact, so successful that anything Mooney now does will doubtless be measured by its standard. His latest effort, a book on hurricanes, will, in essence, be viewed by many through the lens of his earlier work on the politicization of science. Throw in the fact that Mooney is from New Orleans, and one might well expect a certain outcome: a doomsday excoriation of Republicans for their ineptness in dealing with hurricane Katrina, and of scientists for not getting their message across to the public more convincingly.

That assertion would be wrong. In place of a political diatribe, Mooney has written a straightforward and very serviceable account of the study of hurricanes and whether their intensity, frequency or other characteristics are changing due to global warming. Storm World reads, in fact, like a story any other qualified science journalist would write about the topic. Yes, it opens with the lingering devastation of the New Orleans house of Mooney's mother, and there is the occasional glimmer of political tension -- such as when NASA's Jim Hansen accuses the Bush administration of muzzling his statements over global warming. Yet those elements never dominate the book.

Similarly from Kate Sheppard at The American Prospect:

Storm World has everything a non-expert would want from a book on hurricane science -- the context, the basic concepts, the key players, and the implications. The bulk of the book lacks the gripping ideological battle that made The Republican War on Science so popular. But in the middle chapters, Mooney gets into some of the political controversies, denial, and cover-ups, and the book actually becomes a page-turner for a little while.

It's not hard to read between the lines and see how hard Mooney was working to remain apolitical, but the book succeeds because he does. Climate change and hurricanes shouldn't be political topics, and it's both unfortunate and dangerous that they've become so polarizing, at least in the United States. If Mooney had succumbed to making this just another polemic on how conservatives have derailed science, it probably would have been a lot more exciting. Instead, he gives readers the tools necessary for understanding the controversy, which is a lot more useful, and probably helps Mooney hold on to his journalistic cred.

Finally, Amanda Marcotte focuses on the story of William Gray; or as she puts it, "The emotional center of the book is the story of how Bill Gray lost his way." Read her full review here.