Global Warming and Hurricane Rapid Intensification Rates?

Unfortunately RI is quite poorly recorded - perhaps as poorly as category 5s. In any case - there were popular articles about RI in 2004 and 2005, and also in 1995 (just to name 3 seasons distinguished by number of storms - of course RI got plenty of notice during 1988, 1992, and 1998) as well. Scientific interest has also been there all along as far as I know.

Two things: one, warmer coastal SSTs might contribute to more rapid intensification near the coast, like Humberto did. Possible causes are warmer land surface areas and associated changes in wind direction, which could alter prevailing winds causing coastal upwelling (even localized) and the associated colder waters.

Two, noting the path of Wipha from your linked article: though Shanghai gets more press, a typhoon slamming into Hangzhou Bay could drive an impressive storm surge into the city, due to the unique shape of the bay, which hosts the "Black Dragon" tidal bore.

In particular there was lot of discussion of RI in 2005 in the context of the Gulf loop current (which affected several storms). Wilma's non-loop current RI also got a lot of attention.

Over in Russian, one scientist at the International Science and Technology Center (a 1992 spinoff consortium of several countries actually) impressed by the loss of life and property following the rapid strengthening of Hurricane Katrina, did an analysis of various factors in and around the Gulf of Mexico hoping to find out what might have contributed to Katrina's evolution.

He and his colleagues eventually published an ISTC paper a year later pointing the finger of blame at one single factor - a thin oil slick across most of the surface of the northern Gulf of Mexico which prevents normal evaporative cooling. He found that the slick... although almost invisible to the eye... prevents the normal release of evaporation from sun-heated waters that would cause a balancing cooling effect -- an effect that still works effectively in the open Atlantic and southern Gulf.

But the northern Gulf with its leaking oil rigs and multiple "small" transfer spills at both the offshore platforms and at shore refinery dockages from tankers and pipelines continue to load the water surface with a barrier to evaporation. As a consequence, summer heating of the mid and northern Gulf waters is accelerated and retained - giving enormously potent "fuel" to feed hurricanes (and nascent cyclonic winds) arriving in that region of water.

Abstracts of that Russian research stayed available in the ISTC database for about 5 months, then abruptly disappeared. Unfortunately I had not printed the abstract or the research team's name. Almost immediately afterward, it was announced in the U.S. that legislation had been introduced in the Congress to extend the offshore oil leases under the Gulf of Mexico.

I do not think it was a coincidence. The Russian research damned the magnified risk to American and Mexican lives (particularly) from the oil spills and leaks... spills which directly enhance factors enhancing the force, and speed of development, of recent hurricanes.

Cynically, that research was most likely quashed. The oil industry got an almost criticism-free legislative process to expand the oil drilling and platform leasing process in the Gulf of Mexico... and still no one considers the effect of oil slicks upon the water's surface as a factor in Gulf surface temperatures.

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I spend much of my time studying world climate from 20,000 BC onward as the Holocene provides incredible clues and previews ot climate disasters to come... at times when humans were there to witness them.

For instance the inundation of the Norwegian coastal tundra in 5800 BCE or thereabouts is a stunning example of thawing tundra and methane clathrate release, and its immediate and short-term effect upon world climate. Little do we seem to know about the similar near-term similar likelihood in Canada and Siberia.

Methane clathrates are locked up in almost all the world's permafrost tundra, in Siberia for instance to a depth of almost 500 metres in places. The amount involved in Canada and Siberia is almost incalculable. Once released by warmth or inundation however, it expands to an enormously greater volume while acting far more efficiently than CO2 as a "greenhouse" gas.

The Norwegian event has a pronounced effect on world climate in a few short decades - and caused some other catastrophes as well, such as a 200 km underwater landslide which in turn caused a tsunami (in some places 30 metres) that swept right over the Shetlands.

I now study cyclic Icelandic volcanic events that alter European (and in many cases all of northern hemisphere) weather for up to a decade - killing almost all crops and causing mass starvation, over and over.

In many instances tsunamis in the North Atlantic (from events at the Azores, Canary Islands and Iceland in particular, as well as other random locations of earthquakes and volcanoes such as Martinique) have wiped out almost all coastal communities along the North Atlantic. Or entire cultures, such as the Red Paint People.

But all such foregoing evidence is "quickly" forgotten -- that is, if a catastrophic event happened more than 600 or 800 years ago, it might as well not have happened at all, as far as preparing for its recurrence is concerned. Yet within two decades or less, at least one major volcano in Iceland will likely erupt as part of a cycle that is several hundred years old - and climate could easily go to hell in a handbasket (and a tsunami is likely as well).

Those who forget their history are...

Michael Cerulli Billingsley
Research Consultant
Irish Spiritual Heritage Society

Here is something you might want to watch....

Powerful typhoon targets Shanghai
Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:17pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUKPEK17542420070918

"'East China, including the commercial hub of Shanghai, is preparing for what may be the most destructive typhoon in a decade,' the agency said.

China's National Meteorological Centre described the storm on its Web site (www.nmc.gov.cn) as a 'super typhoon'."

They have already evacuated over 1.8 million (other articles - this one says 1.63 million). Third typhoon this month. First two hit Japan and Korea.