Just when you thought hurricane season was over...Nope. Here's Tropical Storm Noel. Probably not going to get very intense...but a major rainfall risk in the Caribbean.
I had gotten fond of saying that this Atlantic hurricane season came in like a lion and went out like a lamb. Let's hope the lion isn't returning...
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More like this
Probably.
The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University makes annual predictions of hurricane season activity, and they released one of these predictions today. This particular group has a good track record, although I would worry that they tenaciously hold to the idea that global…
Although the northeastern Pacific just got its first hurricane of the year--Cosme--we haven't yet had a named storm in the Atlantic in July. Clearly, then, this doesn't seem likely to be a repeat of the 2005 hurricane season, when we had two extremely intense July hurricanes (Dennis and Emily).…
[The rapidly intensifying Hurricane Lorenzo makes landfall.]
I've done my latest Daily Green "Storm Pundit" post, about how this hurricane season is in some ways a lion, in others a lamb. Excerpt:
In short, not even a third of the named storms have attained hurricane strength this year, whereas…
The last of the pre-season hurricane forecasts--from Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, the latter of whom happens to be a chief character in my new book--is now out (PDF). It is unchanged from the previous Klotzbach/Gray forecast: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5…
Still sticking to your two more major hurricanes prediction Chris?
Um, what are you talking about?
I predicted 4 more category 4 or 5 storms globally in 2007.
http://scienceblogs.com/intersection/2007/10/my_hurricane_forecast_for_…
How is that a "two more major hurricanes" prediction?
My mistake, your post clearly says 4 or 5 category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones "globally". Perhaps I can be forgiven since the post has the heading "My Hurricane Forecast for the Rest of 2007". Hurricanes are tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. I think I was mentally splitting the number, rounding in your favor. Maybe it's just a sign of my declining mental faculties.
Any way, I wasn't trying to be adversarial. I was just curious to see what you thought of the quiet pattern evident in the tropical Atlantic and if you had any reason to expect an increase in hurricane activity for the dwindling season.
As I'm sure you are aware the ACE is well below average for the year. 2007 looks to go down as a relatively inactive season.
Lance - when you say 'I wasn't trying to be adversarial', it helps if the rest of your posts try not to sound adversarial...
Fair enough.
Slightly off-topic, but nevermind : the Dilbert take on the Republican War on Science (not the book) :
http://www.dilbert.com/comics/dilbert/archive/dilbert-20071030.html