A messy affair, indeed

In July of this year, 16 hand-picked scientists will meet at the Konrad Lorenz Institute in Altenberg, Austria to discuss the current state of evolutionary theory. The papers presented at the meeting will be published next year and I'm sure it will generate some amount of discussion, but I have to wonder just how significant this event is going to be. We shouldn't expect 16 scientists to get together, pick each others brains for a bit, and then emerge from the meeting carrying with them a shiny new "Extended Evolutionary Synthesis" that will rewrite everything. The development of the "Modern Synthesis" did not occur that way, and it's unreasonable to expect a narrow selection of scientists can create a new evolutionary architecture that will pave the way for the future. Science is a messy process that generates plenty of debate, and as Richard Lewontin explained I'm not so sure that we need to have a meeting to reconfigure a new synthesis.

A major issue at stake in current debate about evolution is the use of terms and differentiation (but not separation) of fact and theory. That evolution occurs is a fact. That natural selection also occurs is a fact. Darwin's theory explained the evolution of life on earth via the mechanism of natural selection, but as many people have said time and time again natural selection is not the sole mechanism of evolutionary change. At present is seems that evolutionary biology is concerned with the general trends of sources of variation and modes of selection, the study of evolution itself changing as new research from various disciplines come into play. Being that the process is ongoing and can be chaotic, any "new synthesis" will itself require revision in a few decades or so (if not sooner) and so I think the "mission" of the 16 scientists that will meet this summer is more of a journalistic angle than a reflection of how science works.

For some time evolutionary science has encompassed research from so many different fields that it is impossible to be an expert in them all. This can lead to some sharp divides and misunderstandings, but cross-disciplinary conferences and symposia allow scientists to get together and actively engage each other with what is occurring their respective fields. In this sense the meeting that will take place this summer will be important, but I wouldn't predict that the disciplines impacted by evolution are going to change very much as a result. What I am fairly sure of, though, is that we'll hear a lot more about the emergence of a "new synthesis" over the next year as the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth is celebrated, but whether or not a development occurs that deserves such a designation is anyone's guess.