public health
mikethemadbiologist | April 28, 2009Since TEH SWINE FLU!!!11!!! is a hot topic, I thought this post about how infections could evolve increased virulence after switching animal hosts was relevant. From the Murky Depths of the Mad Biologist's Archives: There's no reason to think that an epidemic influenza strain won't become more deadly....
Several people have argued that if an influenza pandemic were to occur, it will rapidly evolve to become less virulent--that is less deadly. A recent paper explains why this might be wrong.
Basically, the flaw with the 'optimistic' argument is that it is assumes that the virus will be…
tsmith | April 27, 2009...asked Joe. Answer: only a few days to sequence, clean up the data, and submit to NCBI. Seven H1N1 swine flu sequences are up (H/T Jonathan Eisen). I've not had a chance to crack anything open yet, but I hope to see some analysis from more of the genomics geeks soon...However, one bummer is that they don't have any from the Mexico cases available--and particularly, any sequence data from any of the fatal cases. These will be helpful to see if there are any point mutations that could possibly account for a virulence difference between the Mexican and US cases. (Unlikely, I'd guess,…
amillikan | April 27, 2009
Correction appended: This post incorrectly stated the Center for Disease Control as the organization responsible for raising the pandemic threat level. This is the duty of the World Health Organization.
Swine flu outbreaks are raising alarm across the globe and prompting the World Health Organizationto consider raising the pandemic threat level. For the most current interpretations of what's happening from experts on the ScienceBlogs network, see the following category threads: "Pandemic-Preparedness" and "Swine Flu" from Revere at Effect Measure, and "Influenza" and "Outbreak" from Tara…
mikethemadbiologist | April 27, 2009Republican Senator Susan Collins went along with Karl Rove and cut or eliminated funding from the stimulus package for pandemic influenza spending. While Democratic Congressman Obey was able to restore $50 million for infection reporting, all state and local funding was eliminated. Nicely done, 'moderate' Senator Collins (italics mine):
Did Rove, Collins and their compatriots want a pandemic?
Of course not.
They were just playing politics, in the exceptionally narrow and irresponsible manner that characterized the Republican response to the stimulus debate - and that, because of Democratic…
tsmith | April 27, 2009As expected, new potential cases are being investigated in several states, including an additional possible case in Northern California, 2 potential cases in Indiana, a potential case in Ohio and another in Michigan [updated: and some in Massachusetts too]. New York has also confirmed 20 cases now, and 17 more are suspected (check here for additional information--updated as new cases come in and are confirmed or ruled out). Around the world, four in France have apparently tested negative, as have two potential cases in Australia, while 2 in Scotland have been confirmed positive. In Mexico…
tsmith | April 27, 2009For those of you looking to follow new cases (most of them suspected at this point, not confirmed), a great resource is HealthMap. Reports are popping up of possible infections worldwide: Scotland, Spain, Australia, and New Zealand. Certainly additional possible cases will be showing up over the coming days as well.
One thing I've seen mentioned (including here in the comments) is a question about the unlikelihood of a flu outbreak in Mexico in late April. Isn't influenza a cold-weather bug? Well, yes and no. Influenza circulates year-round at a low level, but it lasts longer in the…
j7uy5 | April 26, 2009Just a few quick interesting links:
href="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=47.100045,9.316406&spn=34.792294,79.101563&t=h&z=4">
Google Map of H1N1 Swine Flu Cases
(HT:
href="http://casesblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/map-of-h1n1-swine-flu-of-2009.html">Clinical
Cases and Images - Blog)
Google Flu Trends
We've found that certain search terms are good indicators
of flu activity. Google Flu Trends uses aggregated Google search data
to estimate flu activity in your state up to two weeks faster…
tsmith | April 26, 2009While there's interest and some new readers, I figured I'd link some of my older posts on swine influenza and pandemic influenza in general for some additional background information and history. Keep in mind that these are unrelated to the current outbreak.
Pandemic influenza series (a bit dated, but still some good information in there, including an overview of 20th century pandemics).
Asymptomatic swine flu infections in farmers
Swine flu in Ohio fairgoers
Iowan has swine flu
New swine influenza virus detected
Masks and influenza
Masks and influenza part II
tsmith | April 26, 2009According to new information from the CDC, in addition to the 2 cases in Texas, 7 in California, and 2 in Kansas, the 8 in New York have now been confirmed, and an additional case has also been confirmed in Ohio (I've not seen any info on that case)--UPDATED below. Investigations are apparently ongoing in at least 2 Canadian provinces, also (British Columbia and Nova Scotia). An investigation is also ongoing in New Zealand after teenagers took a trip to Mexico and have shown flu-like symptoms.
Concerning to say the least, but crof and revere both have some excellent posts to keep things…
j7uy5 | April 26, 2009I had to look this up, so to save others the trouble of finding it,
here is the WHO
href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html">explanation
of pandemic alert levels:
In
nature, influenza viruses circulate continuously among
animals, especially birds. Even though such viruses might theoretically
develop into pandemic viruses, in Phase
1 no viruses circulating among animals have been reported to
cause infections in humans.
In Phase 2 an animal influenza
virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have
caused infection in humans, and is…
tsmith | April 26, 2009Over the last 24 hours, I've received a few comments and even more emails asking about or discussing the possibility of a "cytokine storm" triggered by the H1N1 swine flu reassortant. Is this what's happening in the cases from Mexico? Discussion after the jump...
Let me begin with a bit of background on what's meant by a "cytokine storm." In response to infection, the body has a number of ways to fight back against the invading microbe. Cytokines are one part of this defense. These are molecules produced by a number of different types of cells in response to infection that act as signals…
tsmith | April 25, 2009Sorry for the radio silence--I've been working on grants and manuscripts like a fiend, and so have tried to limit as many distractions as possible (which, unfortunately, includes blogging). However, the swine flu news is right up my alley, so I do just want to say a few words about it, and point you to some excellent stories already up elsewhere.
First, in case you've not been paying attention to the news in the last few days, there have been 8 reported cases of swine influenza infections in humans (6 in California and 2 in Texas, with additional suspected cases) and reports from Mexico…
amillikan | April 20, 2009
As apex organisms in the scope of Earth's multi-tiered web of life, most of us go about our day-to-day activities oblivious to the fact that bacteria are literally everywhere. Microorganisms can thrive in the most surprising locales—places totally inhospitable to human life. Recently, scientists from Harvard documented a flourishing bacterial ecosystem buried under 400 meters of ancient glacial ice; more common bacteria, Salmonella may lurk on your dinner plate, as a report citing 48,600 infections across ten states in 2008 attests; and if it's any indication from this scientific pursuit,…
scientificactivist | April 17, 2009The Lay Scientist has a new guest post up from British physician "DeeTee" about measles, a horrible disease that until recently had been virtually eradicated from the developed world. Unfortunately, despite the fact that measles is totally preventable with proper vaccination, the misguided campaigning of anti-vaccination fanatics has caused measles to once again raise its ugly head in our own backyard, as DeeTee explains:
But last year all that changed. Where I work we saw dozens of cases of measles over the summer. It was odd having to dredge my memory banks to remember details of this "…
terrasig | April 5, 2009
As of late, I've not been particularly good at responding to those of you who've been so nice to comment on the blog. So, I spent a little bit of this morning going through your comments and looking at your blogs and websites, especially those of you with whom I was not previously familiar.
Among these was commenter Keith, co-founder and editor of an online zine called Today's Drum. Keith was kind enough to write a couple of notes on both our Diversity in Science carnival submission on NIGMS's Dr Geraldine Pittman Woods and the 65th anniversary of the first interracial college basketball…
scientificactivist | April 5, 2009As mentioned here previously, the stimulus package passed in February includes funds to encourage evidence-based medicine. Some uninformed critics will claim that this is some big government conspiracy to exert socialized control over private medicine. But, truly, encouraging a firmer empirical basis in all aspects of medicine--through more studies, government guidelines, and just improved common practice--is a very desirable outcome.
A post by David Newman at The New York Time's Well blog lays out a variety of examples of why this is so (with links to original studies!). Also, Hugh Pickens…
j7uy5 | March 25, 2009I saw this article in a couple of places before it dawned on me what
the implication is:
href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/health/research/21alcohol.html">Drinkers'
Red Face May Signal Cancer Risk
By NICHOLAS BAKALAR
Published: March 20, 2009
People whose faces turn red when they drink alcohol may be facing more
than embarrassment. The
href="http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/symptoms/skin-blushingflushing/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier"
title="In-depth reference and news articles about Skin blushing/flushing.">flushing
may indicate an increased risk for a deadly…
mikethemadbiologist | March 19, 2009Always listen to the Mad Biologist. By way of Joe Windish at The Moderate Voice, we find out, just as I predicted, that the pork lobby would claim we don't know enough about the MRSA ST398 problem:
Livestock scientists call the opinion piece "highly speculative", and point to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) statements on MRSA that say most if not all cases of MRSA come from person to person contact, not person to animal. The column also does not define this strain as one that is found on any swine farm in the vicinity of Camden, Ind.
"They are making a huge leap…
mikethemadbiologist | March 14, 2009Isn't this kinda missing the point? Here's an ad I saw in the Weekly Dig:
Yes, an organic cigarette would probably be less harmful than one...laced with dioxin. But it's still a cigarette. It's not good for you. In fact, it's bad for you.
I think the label organic has jumped the shark....
mikethemadbiologist | March 12, 2009Nicholas Kristof has an interesting op-ed in the NY Times about the relationship between pig farming and MRSA. I'll be curious to see what he writes about in his next column, since he says, "This is a system that may help breed virulent "superbugs" that pose a public health threat to us all. That'll be the focus of my next column, on Sunday."
I feel somewhat vindicated since this is a drum I've been beating for a long time; I've also been involved in efforts to curb the use of the antibiotic cefquinome in agriculture.
The other good thing is that ScienceBlogling Tara, who has published on…