Everyone seems to be making numeric predictions, so here we go:
Sebelius 57% (based on SUSA polling)
Morrison 54% (below SUSA's last poll, negative ad campaigns will make people think twice)
Moore 60% (Chuck who?)
Boyda 51% (This race will go down to the wire)
Weiss 53% (McDonald did well in the primary, add in Democratic votes and Weiss wins)
Wempe 52% (an experienced local politician with solid fundraising)
And anyone who thinks these numbers mean anything is crazy. Go vote and prove me wrong.
- Log in to post comments
More like this
The 2016 Electoral Vote Prediction
I'm finished making predictions for the 2016 Presidential Election contest.
According to my model, Hillary Clinton will win with 310 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 228 electoral votes. The map is shown above.
Caveats and wrongosities:
My model puts Iowa barely…
The democratic party is polling tomorrow in Pennsylvania. The conventional wisdom says that there is a number of percentage points reflecting Clinton's expected win above which this would truly count as a win for her, and below which it could be perceived as a victory for Obama. If Obama "wins"…
It is far too early to predict the outcome of the Democratic Party primary. Personally, I like both of the candidates and will support whichever one is selected to run in the general election. Both candidates have strong reasons to vote for them, and each candidate has their own “electability”…
Inside Higher Ed describes a study of complete rates for PhD students broken down by race/ethnicity, gender, whether the student is international or domestic, and by discipline. Here is the key chart:
Cumulative Completion Rates for Students Starting Ph.D. Programs, 1992-3 Through 1994-5
Group…
In a perfect metaphor for the situation, Kansas City woke on this election day to a dense fog. As the morning progressed, the fog lifted and people could see clearly again. Here's hoping that the two states are beginning to lift the political fog and see clearly again as well. I voted.