Global Security: Iran timeline

Global Security has a Iran "strike time line", including countdown clock to earliest possible time for strike, they think (seen on Gilliard's News Blog)

So, er, what they say.

They identify early Feb as the first opportunity, if Stennis moves out soon.
They identify Nimitz as the third carrier available (or Kitty Hawk could move up and Nimitz rotate in behind her, but I think it is more likely Nimitz would go straight in, and Kitty Hawk kept between Japan and Korea, they know that region).

March is clearly the crisis time, new moon is mid March, USAF like to strike just after new moon to maximise stealth, getting a strike in by the mid Feb new moon would require some serious hustling.
Watch the rhetoric on Iran.

March actually looks shit scary, lots of things coming together then.

PS: here is a funny thing - the "Status of the Navy" web page shows only the Eisenhower underway of the carriers; but the "News of the Navy" has a picture of the Nimitz underway on exercises in the Pacific, loading ammunition from a supply ship.
Good thing to practise, and they could have scooted out for a day or two without the Status page showing it.

PPS: Stennis has finally moved out; will be in the Gulf in 2+ weeks?
Curiously the Status of the Navy web page has not updated for almost a week (since Jan 10).
It has been current for the last few months, including right over christmas.
Maybe they're busy or something.

PPS: Navy status is now updated after 8 days of nothing.
5 carriers are at sea! And it looks like elements of 3 more expeditionary strike groups (marine assault groups with integral heli and harrier support) are on the move.
Doesn't mean anything in and of itself, christmas is over and time to get out of port, move around and exercise.
Also, very few subs at sea. I'd expect a sub surge if anything serious was happening near future.

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By a cornellian (not verified) on 22 Jan 2007 #permalink