weird shit

more strange goings on in the general vicinity of the Middle East

Syria Comment has an interesting series on the Israeli Air Force strike in Syria.
Given how potentially provocative such a strike is, the line of news stories and diplomatic reactions is weird.
It is also worrying that Israel has minor mobilization, as allegedly does Syria.
The story now is a strike on weapons shipments from Iran, but the geography doesn't make sense.

In the meantime the ever unreliable DEBKA claims the USS Nimitz is heading back to the Persian Gulf after exercises in the Bay of Bengal - I don't like that, they should go hom now. We'll see which way she actually goes soon enough.

DEBKA also claims the USS Truman is heading out to join them, bringing up three carriers in the Gulf/Arabian Sea in october - Truman is next up to bat, but bringing her out now messes up the regular carrier rotation badly, the US Navy can't keep doing this for very long. We'll see.

Fox News is also, apparently, openly claiming the White House is planning a strike on Iran by late spring '08. That is telegraphing excessively.
Though a lot of the recent unpleasantness has boiled down to people saying exactly what they mean to do, having everyone say "nah, they wouldn't",
and then they did.

PS: the really weird thing is that United suddenly started offering $70 flights (each way) in and out of DC, LA and Boston for this weekend.
All of a sudden there are very cheap flights to Europe as well.

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What is DEBKA?

From the Wikipedia article:

DEBKAfile ... is an Israeli, Jerusalem-based English language open source intelligence website with commentary and analyses on terrorism, intelligence, security, and military and political affairs in the Middle East.
...
DebkaFile reporting relies heavily on apparently well placed sources within the Israeli Military and Intelligence Communities. As such, it tends to have a strong pro-Israeli bias and the limited, but often accurate and real time, purely military "window" on the issues and events it covers.
...
When evaluating DebkaFile reports, the reader is well-advised to consider the broader political, diplomatic, human and economic context of current events in order to put the valuable but isolated piece of the puzzle which DebkaFile offers into perspective.

As it has been said several times here on this blog, a massive strike in Iran is possible, even likely--incredible as it sounds. But it is hard to believe that they are ready yet to do anything. There is supposed to be a propaganda campaign similar to the one in the fall '02 before any real action.

By Dunkleosteus (not verified) on 12 Sep 2007 #permalink

The Israeli air strike is way, way below the radar in most news outlets.

As for a strike on Iran, any sane person would consider that a paranoid pipedream.

But then, Euripides: Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.

DEBKA is an Israeli "security" news web site.
Somewhat breathless and speculative, to be polite about it.
It seems to serve as a conduit for intelligence rumours, with bias, and they also seem to float some trial balloons. Occasionally it seems the the US DHS chooses to act as if it believes DEBKA rumours, when convenient.
DEBKA is wrong a lot.

The Nimitz ought to be going home, good to hear that she is, I would get worried for real if she had gone back to the Gulf after Malabar.
The Truman is in the Atlantic, no chance of her getting quickly to the Gulf, would have to transit the Med and Suez.