...does not automatically translate into Republican advantage:
Will the new GOP ad make you more or less likely to vote for Republicans?
Less likely67%
More likely33%
Total Votes: 82,879
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So after reading Brad DeLong's post about how the Democrats won with a 13.4% majority in the Senate (if you total all the votes cast for each party), I decided to do the same with the Congressional races, since everyone votes for a congresscritter. Before I get to the results, here's some caveats…
Two years ago when the votes were counted in the US Senate race in Minnesota, Republican Norm Coleman was ahead of Democratic Al Franken, which automatically triggered a recount. The Republicans screamed about that recount from day one, saying the worse they could say about Franken and Democrats…
The map to the left shows the counties which voted for Obama (blue) and McCain (red) in the 2008 election. The blue counties are part of the Black Belt, the area where blacks are a majority of the population because of the economic concentration of cotton culture during the 19th and 20th centuries…
Opinions are split.
Matt Nisbett think it is bad here, here and here.
Sara Robinson thinks it was good here and here.
Although I have no great love for Bill Clinton, I am siding with Sara here (read her posts to see why), just on gut feeling. But also, check out this AOL poll (never known to be a…
That's interesting, but since it's just an internet poll in a news article I don't think we can really draw conclusions from it.
Ahhh, but its claimed that the Rethuglicans already know this, and are targeting the add only to their base, who they hope to re-energize.
Andrew: No, of course not, but I thought it was interesting - pretty large spread there.
Tom: But will this re-energize the base, that's the question?
coturnix: Can't say if it will, but I suspect that they did surveys on test audiences before deploying the add.
In any case, biases of internet surveys notwithstanding, it does look like an encouraging trend.