Why is Joe Klein surprised? Is this news something against the narrative he and his buddies were trying to build over the past year or so? Whither The Inevitable Hillary?
The Des Moines Register is reporting these numbers in a poll of Iowa Democrats conducted in October by Harstad Research for a group called Environmental Defense:
* John Edwards 36%
* Hillary Clinton 16%
* Barack Obama 13%
* Tom Vilsack 11%Among county Democratic Party leaders, the numbers are even more startling:
* Edwards 40%
* Vilsack 15%
* Obama 11%
* Clinton 8%
See this comment by Wilbur on DK:
Has anybody ever worked Iowa pre-Caucus. I have twice. That poll may be worth a lot more than you think because it is an activist poll and I believe Iowa is entering the fray early this year. Iowa is an organization state - but not the way we usually think of organization. Outsiders never do well organizing there, that's one of the mistakes that Dean made, and Hillary is going to make the same mistake is my guess (but she's banking on New Hampshire I'm sure). Iowa is an organization state at the local level, even in the larger areas like Iowa City, but especially in the small towns. There are people in these small towns who organize people together and are leaders for an entire generation. Once they fall it is close to impossible to get them to change. I spent so many hours in living rooms trying I can't tell you. If local activists have already made up their minds for Edwards, that's pretty much it. The only place Hillary or Obama can make inroads is in college towns like Ames, Iowa City, and on a smaller level Grinnell (though they can get a lot of students to the caucus - remember that). But this is the type of environment where Edwards does best because he is such a charismatic speaker.
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