US attacks ... Syria?

At this stage of the game, I would not put anything past them.

Now is the time for the outgoing administration to do EVERYTHING they want and let the new guys get to deal with it. Giant gift to corporations.. Check! New programs strangled by massive debt... Check! Military quagmire with three front war... Check!

Thus, I don't think this has anything to do with the election, but the military identified with 100% certainty a post, just inside the Syria-Iraq border, from where insurgents organized their attacks, targeted them precisely, probably with immediate communication with the Syrian government.

You're joking, right?

No, I am not. Just because it looks like an October Surprise does not mean it is. Waiting for more information to come in is a wise strategy. Jumping to conclusions is not. My interpretation, until more information refutes it, is more likely at this point.

To me it just looks like another screwup by some military who didn't know or didn't care they had passed they Syrian border. It has happened before.

I am syrian and I live in Syria ,
It looks right "with immediate communication with the Syrians"

"Syria condemns and denounces this act of aggression and US forces will bear the responsibility for any consequences," SANA quoted an unidentified official as saying.

"Syria also demands that the Iraqi government accept its responsibilities and launches an immediate inquiry following this dangerous violation and forbids the use of Iraqi territory to launch attacks on Syria," it said.

"Four American helicopters violated Syrian airspace around 16:45 local time (1345 GMT) on Sunday. They penetrated eight kilometres (five miles) into Syria," official Syrian media said.

"American soldiers" who had emerged from helicopters "attacked a civilian building under construction and fired at workmen inside, causing eight deaths," reports said.

SANA named the dead and said they were a father and his four children, a couple and another man.

Obviously a careful anti-insurgent action

but the military identified with 100% certainty a post, just inside the Syria-Iraq border, from where insurgents organized their attacks, targeted them precisely, probably with immediate communication with the Syrian government.

It looks like one of those usual botched jobs the US military does with neither communication with the Syrian government nor any effect on insurgence group.

So how is your analysis in the least accurate?

The assumption of competence and caring about consequences on the part of US military commanders seems a particularly unwarranted leap to a conclusion at this point - eespecially that "100% certainy" assertion.

Sfaict, the only reason not to consider this an "October Surprise" gambit is that it's too small.

Some sarcasm detectors in need of overhaul?

US strike on Syria: Raid is unlikely to provoke Damascus:

For years Syria has offered safe passage to foreign fighters crossing into Iraq to fight for al-Qaeda and the Sunni insurgency, and offered refuge to militants taking a break from Iraq.

Attacks of this nature are carried out after receiving specific intelligence (whose accuracy varies greatly) and it is likely that the US received word that one or more senior al-Qaeda figures was located at the Sukkariyeh Farm near the town of Abu Kamal.

The target may have been Abu Ayyub al Masri, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, who reportedly to have left the country several months ago after the terror group lost its sanctuaries in Diyala province.

The US military is enjoying growing success against al-Qaeda, which has lost the support of most of Iraq's Sunni population and whose strongholds are dwindling. Abu Qaswarah, the alleged al-Qaeda number two in Iraq, was shot dead along with four other suspected insurgents on October 5 when US forces raided a building in Mosul. Successful incidents often yield information and intelligence that lead to follow up raids.

Conspiracy theories may emerge that the attack represented George W Bush playing politics, trying to inflame tensions in the Middle East ahead of the Nov 4 US election and help fellow Republican Senator John McCain, who is regarded as strong on foreign affairs.

But despite Syria's strong protests, the incident is unlikely to prove too provocative given its distance from the centre of power and Damascus comparative weakness. Indeed it may even have been conducted with a secret green light from the Syrians.

The ruling Baath party has grown uncomfortable with al-Qaeda-linked Fatah al-Islam, the fundamentalist Sunni group it allowed to flourish but which is now seen as more of a nuisance than a bulwark against US power.

The purpose of my post was to warn agitated greenhorns on both sides not to jump to conclusions. The shorter version of this post is "Slow Down!".

Am I surprised that some civilians were also killed? Not at all.

Am I surprised that Syria publicly condemns but privately approves the attack? Nope.

Am I surprised that a lot of people jumped to the conclusion that this is October Surprise? Nope, but that's why I posted this.

What is going to happen when, inevitably, President Obama will, acting on intelligence about terrorists/WMDs/etc, order a strike on a target that results in some civilian deaths in Afghanistan/Pakistan/Somalia/etc?

Will it be like reactions to this incident in reverse, with conservatives darkly warning of conspiracies and assuming malevolence at worst and incompetence at best and liberals waving flags and saying "God Bless our commander-in-chief"?

Will some esteemed professor call it morally equivalent to 9/11 while weekend guerrillas in black bandanas break windows at Starbucks?

Will the international press have photos of civilian casualties on page one while barely mentioning the intelligence on which the strike was based?

I think most reasonable people will understand that intel is never perfect, security decisions are tough, and strategies are never optimal.

Recall Clinton and the factory in Sudan, and the accusations on both left and right, the 'wag the dog' stuff. Some of these reactions is strictly partisan, some of it is ideological, some of it is based on very short memories.

"I think most reasonable people will understand that intel is never perfect, security decisions are tough, and strategies are never optimal."

And "collateral damage" is just "a price to pay".
(I guess those people were evil anyway, so...)

Regarding the attack on Sudan's largest pharmaceutical factory that Colugo mentions. Had a smaller country done that it would have been denounced as 'state terrorism' and led to war or at least international sanctions. Now people just shrug and let Clinton travel around the world freely rather than having him arrested as a terrorist leader.

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Here's another possible interpretation of events: The Bush Administration is poking at the Muslim community (let's not forget recent incursions into Pakistan, also) with a sharp stick, hoping to get it to bite back before the election. Security is usually an issue that Republicans gain on.