But the odds in favour of an imminent renaissance look long. Many conservatives continue to think they lost because they were not conservative or populist enough--Mr McCain, after all, was an amnesty-loving green who refused to make an issue out of Mr Obama's associations with Jeremiah Wright. Richard Weaver, one of the founders of modern conservatism, once wrote a book entitled "Ideas have Consequences"; unfortunately, too many Republicans are still refusing to acknowledge that idiocy has consequences, too.
That there is no simple solution for what ails the party is clear from the number of solutions offered to fix it. Ask a room of Senate Republicans what's next for their diminished and deflated minority, and you'll get a different answer from each of them.
As Republicans sort out the reasons for their defeat, they likely will overlook or dismiss the gorilla in the pulpit.
Three little letters, great big problem: G-O-D.
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Religious conservatives become defensive at any suggestion that they've had something to do with the GOP's erosion. And, though the recent Democratic sweep can be attributed in large part to a referendum on Bush and the failing economy, three long-term trends identified by Emory University's Alan Abramowitz have been devastating to the Republican Party: increasing racial diversity, declining marriage rates and changes in religious beliefs.
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The young will get older, of course. Most eventually will marry, and some will become their parents. But nonwhites won't get whiter. And the nonreligious won't get religion through external conversion. It doesn't work that way.
Given those facts, the future of the GOP looks dim and dimmer if it stays the present course. Either the Republican Party needs a new base -- or the nation may need a new party.
I still think I was right...
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I tend to agree with you on much of this, although I'm dubious about the possibility of evolving a multi-party system. I suspect that we might see the temporary emergence of a third party (a pro-business party, most likely) that would hasten the decline of the old GOP, but that eventually you'd see a merger of many Republicans with that new party, leaving the religious fundamentalists off on the sidelines.
You might find it useful to refer to Pew's "Political Typology" (http://people-press.org/report/?pageid=949) to get an idea of the relative strength of the diverse factions in our political spectrum. The statistics there are all from 2005, and it will be interesting to see how they change the next time Pew does the survey.
I suspect that, if Obama doesn't do anything to actively antagonize the religious conservatives in the next 4 years, the Democrats will gain some strength from the "Pro-Government Conservative" faction on the right. That, in turn, should help the Dems take even more seats in the 2010 Congressional elections (and hopefully in state legislatures as well). Then, that numerical advantage should help the Dems reverse at least some of the Republican gerrymandering of Congressional districts after the 2010 census, further weakening traditional Republican chances for the next 10 years. (It'll be interesting to see what the 2010 census does to shift the distribution of Congressional seats and thus also assignment of Electoral votes.)
On a somewhat different tangent, if Palin does succeed in putting together a coalition of social conservatives, gun owners, and pro-military interests to take over the Republican banner, I think they will lose out big-time on getting financial support from big business, which will further reduce their chances of winning a national election.
While it's fun, I think you're being a bit too celebratory here ;).
It seems very likely now that this economic crisis will really be an extremely nasty one. I think Obama will have a hard time fixing all the different messes that the republicans have created in these 8 years (and in all honesty some of them extend from reagan on -including clinton's time).
I wouldn't be surprised if the republicans manage to convince people that somehow everything is Obama's fault - I mean limbaugh already declared that this is an Obama crisis and the guy's not even sworn in yet. 4 years from now, whatever happens will probably be blamed on Obama, and no matter how well he does I don't think it'll be pretty.
But let's hope I'm wrong.
Maybe people are forgetting that the religious right won gay marriage bans in 3 out of 3 states?
H.L. Mencken wrote many an obituary religion, especially fundamentalist-like religion. Now I see many people writing many an obituary for the religious right.
Furthermore - it will take a series of miracles for the Democrats to turn things around in two years. If they don't pull that off - the Dems will probably lose seats in congress in 2010.
All good points. The demographics are shifting and favor Democratic over GOP policies and stands.
But for me the single biggest contradiction I saw was quite simple. If the politicians from the GOP really and truly believe that government is the problem; that government can't do anything private citizens or business can't do better; then why oh why would anyone from the GOP run for office? Wouldn't their time and efforts be better spent running a private organization or business?
If and when one overcomes that contradiction, and understanding that elections are essentially a matter of the people, as employers, hiring people to fill a job, then why would I hire someone from the GOP to fill any position?
If you were hiring a surgeon to remove a tumor would you hire the one that openly and aggressively opines that medicine and surgery are useless crocks and a complete waste of time and energy? Would you trust one that claims the above but who then turns around and enthusiastically puts themselves forward for the job?