The Australian's War on Science XXVIII

but we will have the fastest recovery from this dip in sea ice! again!

I predict that they will start talking about Antarctic sea ice.

They already have: Monckton to John Key (NZ PM)...

Both the summer and the winter extent of the sea ice surrounding Antarctica was greater in 2007/8 than at any time since the satellite record began 30 years ago.

That was last week...

You are right. But they will find something else...probably "wacky" conspiracies about: "Why weren't the correct figures put up in the first place?" And no doubt Davey Evans will find a way to weedle in some inanity about his hot spot (or is that wet spot).

You want wacky explanations? Phillip Stott (and talk radio blowhards in the US) are blaming the arctic melt on... underwater volcanoes.

On a related note: the Google Earth conspiracy. Muhahahahaha!

Tim,

If it concerns you, providing direct links to the denialosphere gives them 'Google link love' and improves their ranking. Better to use http://tinyurl.com/

And thanks for the rapid response to Booker's latest dishonesty. An email will shortly be scorching its way to the Telegraph.

DavidONE.

providing direct links to the denialosphere gives them 'Google link love' and improves their ranking. Better to use http://tinyurl.com/

Bugger, I had not thought about that in posting my own linkings. Thanks for the heads-up.

Putting rel="nofollow" in the anchor tag works for me.

I guess Hansen is in charge of the sea ice data too.

Is there any doubt that science = doom? Are these socialists trying to hurt car companies in order to get us to walk everywhere?

Best,

D

> Putting rel="nofollow" in the anchor tag works for me.

If I'd bothered to switch on my nofollow highlighter, I'd have seen that.

It's as good as TinyURL - and better in the sense that the targeted Denier can find out from their logs who has been bashing them.

Dano:

------------- Algore --------------
/ \
Al-Qaeda --- beards --- Michael Moore --- fat
| |
| polar bears
B. Hussein O. --- 666 ACORN -- oak |
\ | / trees anti-human
\ | / | / |
Yuri Phantom tree-huggers |
Sergeyevich ------ Soviet Terri
Zamenov Empire --- under the bed Schiavo
\ / | | /
\ / War on under the sheets
Na zdorovje! Xmas |
| | the Clenis
| | |
Wall Street crisis ---- Frank Barney is gay

I guess Hansen is in charge of the sea ice data too.

How small do you expect the greatest conspiracy of all time to be?

Oops. I think I forgot the Freemasons.

the big news is the sudden dip in the last couple of days. What is going on (note that it brings 2007 and 2008 together. Have to go check the weather stations.

"The ice area calculation has been too high since about 22 October, causing too steep slope of the 2008 curve. We corrected for this yesterday and recalculated the ice area for 2008."

So please tell me, if you can suppress the self-satisfied cackling long enough, how that qualifies as an explanation?

If the IRS sent you a bill and when you wrote to them to explain it they just said that your tax refund "was too high" and that they had "corrected" it and that you now owed $2000 would that count as an explanation?

I suspect you might want to know on what basis they decided to change your return. But since this correction seems to be in your favor you malefactors seem to be content to chortle and preen (which seems to be Deltoid's raison d' etre).

I think Anthony Watts is quite correct when he observes, "For my opinion though it seems to be an incomplete answer, generating even more questions."

the big news is the sudden dip in the last couple of days. What is going on (note that it brings 2007 and 2008 together.

Yes, that is interesting. Are there precedents for this kind of dip, at this time of year? i.e. Is it within normal variation?

Are there precedents for this kind of dip, at this time of year? i.e. Is it within normal variation?

2002 was sorta similar, but it's import?

We are quite certain that the almost complete lack of increase in ice extent since about December 10 is real. We cross checked using data from the AMSR (advanced microwave sounding radiometer) instrument and we see the same pattern. This gives us independent confirmation. Past 10 days has also seen a very unusual atmospheric pattern. It has been very warm over the Arctic Ocean, and wind patterns have favored a compact ice cover. While the lack of increase in ice extent is certainly quite unusual, I would not read too much into it right now at is appears to be weather related versus climate related. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next week. [emphasis added]

Best,

D

The best thing is to check multiple sources. The number of possible problems is vast, but chances are good that if you look at the Nansen site, and Cryosphere Today, and NSIDC, andNOAA/NCEP ... if you see the same things going on at all of them, you're not looking at a data oops.

The NOAA/NCEP is less mentioned (with good reason given the ugliness of the graphics and absence of area or extent computations) but has some different features. Start at
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/nh.html
which will show the current analysis, let you animate the last 30 days, and look at the ice for the same day last year. I did the latter w.r.t. the above curves, and if the area hadn't been nearly the same as last year, I'd have been concerned. The maps are extremely similar this year versus last. (No there isn't really ice around southern Japan, et al., see the comments on how to read the maps, and other materials. The animations are also helpful in figuring out what is storm and what is ice.)

Cryosphere Today is not entirely independent of the NSIDC figures, but those two are relatively independent of the NCEP or Nansen, and NCEP and Nansen are probably the most mutually independent of the 4.

Thanks for that, Dano.

So please tell me, if you can suppress the self-satisfied cackling long enough, how that qualifies as an explanation?

Doesn't matter. NSIDC shows the same thing.

They state two things:

1. Measured temps in the arctic are currently warmer than normal (though I'm sure you're going to complain that they switched to Magic Communist Warming-Showing Thermometers this year).

2. Winds are favoring ice compaction this year (the ice area people aren't showing as extreme a flattening in trend, which supports the compaction notion).

Neither points are cackling. Neither points are reality-denialying, unlike your post ...

This might have brought cheer to Al Gore and the BBC, who have been obsessively telling us that the Arctic ice will soon disappear altogether.

But...but...but...AAAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLL GOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRE!

Al Gore is the Jim Crow of Liberal Fascism.

Al Gore is the Jim Crow of Liberal Fascism.

Aarrgghh!

[head explodes, and a turkey to stuff. bugger.]

I think Anthony Watts is quite correct when he observes, "For my opinion though it seems to be an incomplete answer, generating even more questions."

What Lance is missing is that Watts is a total bozo who quite likely gets different answers when he multiplies 1 by 0 vs 2 by 0, that no one worth listening to cares about his opinion, and that the fact that self-proclaimed science genius Lance hangs out at his blog simply strengthens Lance's crank-ignorant reputation ...

I blogged about the similarities between climate change denialism and creationism; and the evidence that these two ideologies are two-sides of the same coin keeps mounting up...for example a new law called the 'Louisiana Science Education Act 2008' which claims to be about supporting academic freedom has in the details the finger-prints of the ideological lobby groups who are pushing for it. In summary it has nothing to do with academic freedom (which I am all for) and is a trojan horse for right-wing ideological propaganda;

"The real purpose of the law--as opposed to its ostensible support for academic freedom--becomes evident on analysis. First, consider what the law seeks to accomplish. Aren't teachers in the public schools already exhorted to promote critical thinking, logical analysis and objective discussion of the scientific theories that they discuss? Yes, indeed: in Louisiana, policies established by the state board of education already encourage teachers to do so, as critics of the bill protested during a legislative hearing. So what is the law's true intent? That only a handful of scientific topics--"bioÂlogical evolution, the chemical origins of life, global warming, and human cloning"--are explicitly mentioned is a hint." (my emphasis)

Oh yes - so not only are the tactics and strategies used by creationists and denialists the same, not only are the funding organisations the same - and some of the 'experts' who deny both evolution and climate change are the same.

Thus a new term of the denialists is born that more accurately reflects their 'intellectual heritage' and public relations strategies; Climate Creationism.
-

#19:

You're welcome. Of course, this scientist didn't vote for Algore, Hansen or the Hockey Stick, so he can be believed, unlike those other warmergreenie nazi "scientists".

Best,

D

This is dramatic news. The U.S National Snow and Ice Data Center is also tracking the amount of ice in the Arctic, and I find the similar recent stagnation in Ice extent in their graphs. The ice amount is now all-time-low.

Take a look at http://www.nsidc.com/arcticseaicenews/

This is dramatic news. The U.S National Snow and Ice Data Center is also tracking the amount of ice in the Arctic, and I find the similar recent stagnation in Ice extent in their graphs. The ice amount is now all-time-low.

Take a look at http://www.nsidc.com/arcticseaicenews/

bi, your chart is inspired. Thanks.

If the denialists are consistent in their logic they will be proclaiming that Arctic refreezing has plateaued, or indeed that it is decreasing - al la the '1998' furphy...

After all, it is not necessary to wait an appropriate period of time - all one needs to do is to 'look at a graph'.

Bernard...wouldn't that be twisted logic?
But,in a very selective way of course....

BPL: thanks! :)

a606,

"I blogged about the similarities between climate change denialism and creationism; and the evidence that these two ideologies are two-sides of the same coin keeps mounting up.."

You can read coincidences into almost anything, just like you can'prove' anything with faulty statistical methodology (a la Mann).

There are plenty of people who are sceptical of AGW who also have no truck with creationism. Expand your horizons!

Dave Andrews:

Of course, it's also a coincidence that Dave Andrews disputes AGW and thinks that Mann et al. (some year or other) is "faulty". What's the probability of finding a person who actively disputes AGW but doesn't dispute Mann et al.? I don't know, but I know that the probability must be Quite High, because otherwise I can't form this talking point.

There are plenty of people who are sceptical of AGW who also have no truck with creationism.

However, there are no people within either science denialist camp who aren't fundamentally dishonest, and among the leaders of each camp, the same tactics are used to fool the gullible.

You're in the "gullible" rather than "leader" category, Dave Andrews, despite your posting the same rubbish over and over and over again all across the internet.

just like you can'prove' anything with faulty statistical methodology (a la Mann)

IOW: Algoooooore is fat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Best,

D

So...none of your computer "models" work but it is the other guy who isn't dealing with reality?

Sure it is....

You just keep "revising" your graphs. I'll wait for facts that can be backed up by the scientific method.

So every correction of every mistake is evidence of a Vast Worldwide Conspiracy? Who knew...