Iowa predictions vs. results

How did I do? First, I got the rank order pretty much down! The only mistake was swapping Richardson and Biden. Second, I didn't know how the Iowa Democratic Caucus was set up...otherwise, I would have been retarded to not assume it would have taken a "Winner Take All" outcome due to the 15% threshold. Below the fold, with 100% and 96% of precincts for Dems and Repubs respectively. New Hampshire predictions forthcoming!

Candidate Real Results My Prediction Difference
Barack Obama 37.6 30 7.6
John Edwards 29.7 28 1.7
Hillary Clinton 29.5 27 2.5
Bill Richardson 2.1 4 -1.9
Joe Biden 0.9 5 -4.1
Chris Dodd 0.1 3 -2.9
Mike Gravel 0 1 -1
Dennis J. Kucinich 0 2 -2
Mike Huckabee 34.3 29 5.3
Mitt Romney 25.3 27 -1.7
Fred Thompson 13.4 15 -1.6
John McCain 13.1 13 0.1
Ron Paul 10 10 0
Rudy Giuliani 3.5 5 -1.5
Duncan Hunter 0.4 2 -1.6
Tom Tancredo 0 1 -1

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You said you got your numbers after "reading websites for a few hours." Which websites were the most helpful?

By Joseph W. (not verified) on 03 Jan 2008 #permalink

i just read randomly on google news. all the mainstream stuff (the times, post, etc.), + the corner & tapped, as well as some of the atlantic blogs. that's about it.


It would seem that you have a future as a pollster!

Nicely done! Say ... screw the science. Spend "a few hours reading websites" about, say, horse racing!


Very Impressive Indeed! I am looking forward to the next prediction! How about one for the winner of the whole deal? Who is going to be the next president? I want to be able to pay all my attention to science. Already knowing who is going to win the whole thing would save a lot of distraction time!
Dave Briggs :~)

Sometime tonight or tomorrow raw vote percentages (as opposed percent delegates captured) will be coming out. You may want to revaluate your predictions with those numbers.