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New Hampshire predictions

By razib on January 4, 2008.

I note that Slate is congratulating a reader who guessed the top 3 finishers for both Repubs and Dems. Well, I got everything right except flipping Biden and Richardson (heard some guy on the radio say he was going for Biden, so I did it for the hell of it!). OK, this is a bit easier I think...but here I go....

Republicans:
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Giuliani
Thompson
Hunter
Keyes

Democrats:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Kucinich
Gravell

Most of these are "gimmes" now and I've followed "conventional wisdom" (e.g., Obama up, Clinton down), with the main exception being that I think Paul will over-perform and pass the deflating Giuliani. Percentages to come.... (after I do a little more reading)

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Politics

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If you're right again, I'll be a believer!

This is very impressive. But where are the lovely cats?

Actually, a win in Iowa isn't always a good indicator for how a candidate will do in other primaries. For example, Bill Clinton lost Iowa in 1992; George H. W. Bush lost it in '88; and Reagan in '80.

As for New Hampshire, I would actually place Paul above Huckabee ain that primary because the N.H. electorate seems to be far more sympathetic to Paul's views than the evangelical protectionism espoused by Huckabuck.

Actually, a win in Iowa isn't always a good indicator for how a candidate will do in other primaries. For example, Bill Clinton lost Iowa in 1992; George H. W. Bush lost it in '88; and Reagan in '80.

as other's have pointed out, your N is small. IOW, the indicator isn't statistically significant either way.

Keyes?

Are you sure you don't mean Tancredo?