New Hampshire predictions

I note that Slate is congratulating a reader who guessed the top 3 finishers for both Repubs and Dems. Well, I got everything right except flipping Biden and Richardson (heard some guy on the radio say he was going for Biden, so I did it for the hell of it!). OK, this is a bit easier I think...but here I go....

Republicans:
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Giuliani
Thompson
Hunter
Keyes

Democrats:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Kucinich
Gravell

Most of these are "gimmes" now and I've followed "conventional wisdom" (e.g., Obama up, Clinton down), with the main exception being that I think Paul will over-perform and pass the deflating Giuliani. Percentages to come.... (after I do a little more reading)

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How did I do? First, I got the rank order pretty much down! The only mistake was swapping Richardson and Biden. Second, I didn't know how the Iowa Democratic Caucus was set up...otherwise, I would have been retarded to not assume it would have taken a "Winner Take All" outcome due to the 15%…
The primary happens tomorrow, and I'm ready with my predictions (see my Iowa outcome). Republicans: McCain - 33% Romney - 30% Huckabee - 14% Paul - 12% Giuliani - 7% Thompson - 3% Hunter - 1% Keyes - 0% Democrats: Obama - 45% Clinton - 30% Edwards - 19% Richardson - 4% Kucinich - 2% Gravel - 0%…
Some of the other SciBlings are doing it, so why not ... My compatibility with the current gaggle of presidential candidates: Kucinich (95) Gravel (90) Richardson (82) Edwards (81) Dodd (78) Clinton (74) Obama (72) Biden (72) Paul (61) McCain (44) Thompson (38) Huckabee (36) Romney (35) Giuliani (…
I don't really know much about politics...but that never stops people from blogging about politics, so here are my Iowa predictions ranked ordered from first to last. Republican: Huckabee Romney Thompson Mccain Paul Giuliani Hunter Keyes Democrat: Obama Edwards Clinton Biden Richardson Dodd…

If you're right again, I'll be a believer!

This is very impressive. But where are the lovely cats?

Actually, a win in Iowa isn't always a good indicator for how a candidate will do in other primaries. For example, Bill Clinton lost Iowa in 1992; George H. W. Bush lost it in '88; and Reagan in '80.

As for New Hampshire, I would actually place Paul above Huckabee ain that primary because the N.H. electorate seems to be far more sympathetic to Paul's views than the evangelical protectionism espoused by Huckabuck.

Actually, a win in Iowa isn't always a good indicator for how a candidate will do in other primaries. For example, Bill Clinton lost Iowa in 1992; George H. W. Bush lost it in '88; and Reagan in '80.

as other's have pointed out, your N is small. IOW, the indicator isn't statistically significant either way.

Keyes?

Are you sure you don't mean Tancredo?