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I was Wrong!!!

By razib on January 8, 2008.

Can I get a "What, what?!?!" You can check out the results real time. Here are the exit polls. I'm not going to do the final tally yet since it won't come in at 100% for a few hours, but it looks like I really messed up with Obama vs. Clinton. But I'm in plenty of company. I doubt Paul is going to catch Giuliani either, though I wanted to pick a surprise there instead of just going with the safe bet (it isn't like there was as much uncertainty in New Hampshire as there was in Iowa where we had months of talking and a few straw polls and national surveys to go on). No more predictions from me ;-)

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What a surprise this is. Make Clinton the underdog and she actually became likeable.

Revenge of the female Boomers?

Or is it a huge Wilder Effect (Doug Wilder -- first black gov of Virginia)?

Progressives whites in Iowa were, perhaps, afraid to appear racist and not support Obama. Iowa's caucus is public, so everybody knows everybody else's vote.

But in the secret voting booth in New Hampshire all of a sudden the liberal whites votes changed dramatically from what they were telling pollsters.

The Wilder effect assumes any black candidate's actual vote total will be less than the polls say, due to voters lying to the pollsters about their true intentions. (Or, more charitably, just misjudging their own behavior in that far distant world of ... 12 to 24 hours in the future.)

The Wilder Effect should be larger the whiter and leftier the electorate is. Most of my friends are white liberals and there are few things they fear more than being publicly labeled racist. So they will do anything to avoid that label (well, anything that doesn't involve living especially close to, or having their children educated alongside, black people.)

Another hypothesis is the "Tweety Effect"; that women broke at the last minute for Clinton in reaction to the heavy dose of misogyny the press was dishing up. (Named after the left blogosphere's nickname for Chris Matthews)