2008 Presidential & Senate predictions

Since the voting has started in New Hampshire, my predictions...The popular vote for President will be:

Obama 52%
McCain 47%
Other 1%

The electoral college & Senate outcome map are below. I think he Democrats will fall short of 60, but Georgia will go to a runoff as neither candidate will reach 50%.

Please note that I'm just guessing based on polls.

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pretty much in agreement with your pres map, with a couple differences:

north dakota - lean republican, i think. polling has been sparse. i'll go with intrade and history on this one.
florida - i think dems have the edge here.
indiana, north carolina, and missouri i'd give 50/50 odds on.

also, i think there will be at least one New-Hampshire-in the-dem-primary-like surprise thrown in there that defies the polls/intrade.

my optimal election out come would be obama prez and dems < 60; limited government ftw. haven't been following the senate race so i hope youre right on your predictions here.

I believe that the early voting and the "wave" effect will bring Obama closer to a landslide. Applying all of the information gathered in the poll numbers from "538.com" and "pollster.com" and putting in the internals along with the early voting results, it's pretty clear to see that Florida and NC into the blue column. There is also excitement attached to Obama and the desire for change which is "priceless", but helps with the wave effect and to add surge to the poll numbers. This may be one of the first elections where negative campaigning did not affect the outcome. To the contrary, it has worked against McCain and Palin getting their own message across.

By jim in California (not verified) on 03 Nov 2008 #permalink

The first results (which do not actually count in the electoral college) are in:

Obama has won the territory of Guam (West of the dateline, so one day ahead of the rest of the country).
Obama 62%
McCain 37%
Barr 0.65% (212 votes out of 32,272)

This territory voted 2-1 for Bush in 2004( maybe because of a lot of military people living there?).
I think it will be a landslide.
Anecdotally: I was volunteering for a couple of hours this morning and we were getting out the vote in a lower-middle class African American neighbourhood in Milwaukee. Almost every house we went to, the adults had already voted (for Obama). ..they thanked us profusely for taking the trouble to walk around their neighbourhood and the "Bless yous" would have melted your heart. Wisconsin for Obama by close to ten points....I have never seen such grass roots enthusiasm in an American election.

I'll pass on making election predictions. I dislike superstitious people, but I suppose I'm having a moment of weakness tonight. However, regarding the predictions made here, I'm also taking the over. I think you're underestimating Obama's vote count by quite a bit.

I saw someone brought up the Reagan "landslide" of 1980 in another post. It's interesting because that was one of the very few times in recent history where the U.S. had a sitting president with approval ratings of less than 30% on Election Day. Back then, the polling and electoral spread was far wider than any polling agency predicted. The other time was in 1952, and the same thing happened.

Which is why I say, Obama wins by considerably more than 314.

Oops. I meant the POPULAR and electoral spread.