I said I might produce one more electoral vote estimate. Instead, I've produced this map (using RCP web resources):
Every state that is blue is a state that Obama will win no matter what. The recent polls all show way beyond the margin of error an Obama victory. Same fr the red states but for McCain.
All but one of the tossup states show, in the most recent polls, statistical uncertainty. Obama and McCain are statistically indistinguishable in all but one of these states.
The exception is Pennsylvania. I leave Pennsylvania a tossup because I don't trust this state (in this particular respect) for a number of reasons. A lot has been sunk into this state. If there will be an effective Republican ground game anywhere, it will be here. Some numbers do show a closing gap here. And, by leaving Pennsylvania a tossup, we have neither candidate winning in electoral votes. This way, when one candidate or the other passes the 270 needed to win, we can either pop the cork on the champaign or anti-celebrate in some appropriate way.
By the time you read this, I'm off somewhere on the streets of the Northern Suburbs GOTV-ing. Which is where you should be.
See you this evening!
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PA will be going for Obama!
It's true-McCain is by no means mathematically eliminated until all the votes are counted. On the other hand, Texas is the only "big" state "in the bag" for McCain--If Obama gets all of those blue states, then McCain can't afford to lose any of the "swing" states. O's best chances are likely PA and VA. MO and NC we might not know until literally every vote is counted.
... must... will... Pennsylvania blue!
Does it make you feel any better that I live in a little county in the middle of Pennsyltucky that, during the primaries, registered more Blues than Reds for the first time since the Civil War?
I think we're swinging the right way.
I will be truly shocked if McCain pulls it off. I just don't see any way he could do it.
This map is more realistic than your previous one - dozens of ways for big O to win, very few for McCain - checkmate old white dude!
This map is more realistic than your previous one
Depends on which of his earlier maps you look at. this one, much like the one in this post, or this one, a.k.a. the nightmare scenario.
Greg, as an educator I was wondering what your position is on professors holding class and even having tests/quizzes on election day?
I have never held a serious class on election day. Election day class is always optional for me. And certainly, never an exam.
I'm considering proposing to the higher ups at the University that election day be converted to some sort of skeleton shift day if not an outright day off.
Lot of the people I work with took today off to work on various election related activities.