fivethrirtyeight.com: Obama 349, McCain 189
NYTimes: Obama 291, McCain 163, 84 tossup
CNN: Obama 291, McCain 157, 90 tossup
Readers projections invited......
More like this
I said I might produce one more electoral vote estimate. Instead, I've produced this map (using RCP web resources):
It was a tossup, but in a rather complicated way.
There are a number of US HOuse of Representative races that are too close to call at this point. Although the house is currently predicted to go Republican, which would be a shame, there are not a lot of current data to predict this.
After an early night, I awoke to an unusually dark and cloudy (and cold .. .only 50 degrees) Phoenix. I blame the out-of-towners for ruining our perfectly good weather!
330 Obama: 208 McCain.
(I'm optimistic that Nebraska's second district will vote Obama this year - oh, and that Ron Paul will prove enough of a spoiler to McCain in MT that Obama will win. LONG shot on those to, though.)
The problem with Nate Silver's number at 538 is that it is the expected value (e.g. the average). That does not mean it is an attainable number (and, given the state distribution, it is not attainable in this case); it is just a statistical average.
In addition to the expected value, you want the most likely outcome. election-projection.net uses a method similar (but not the same as) Nate does. Their expected value is 346.9 (close to Nate), but their most likely outcome is 367.