Tropical Storm Nicole

The 14th named storm has just appeared in the Atlantic.

The average number of named storms in the Atlantic, based on a fairly long climatology, is about 10.1. An average of 5.9 become hurricanes.

So, this year are more than average named storms. But is it more than predicted?

On average, the expert forecasts suggested anywhere from 12 to 18 named storms. We are well past the midpoint of the 2016 season, and are just about to reach the midpoint of these forecasted ranged, and there is still plenty of time left for a few more storms. The largest number predicted, as the upper end of the range, was 18, with several forecasts suggesting 14, 15, 16, or 17. So, it looks like the forecasts are all going to come in light, and this will be a noticeably stronger than average yer.

Why am I talking about the season overall instead of Nicole? Because Nicole isn't very interesting. Probably won't even become a hurricane. Nicole will wander around ay out to sea for a while, and go away in a week or so, most likely.

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You said ;

"The 14th named storm has just appeared in the Atlantic."

and also

"On average, the expert forecasts suggested anywhere from 12 to 18 named storms. We are well past the midpoint of the 2016 season, and are just about to reach the midpoint of these forecasted ranged,"

If the forecast range only goes as high as 18 then we re wll past the midpoint of 9.

I'm confused -(I know, easily done)

By Doug Alder (not verified) on 04 Oct 2016 #permalink

Doug, the expected range is 12..18 hurricanes, which has a midpoint of the expected range of (18-12)/2+12= 15. So 14 is indeed just about the midpoint of that expected range of hurricanes.

By Brainstorms (not verified) on 04 Oct 2016 #permalink

Brainstorms - thanks now I understand

By Doug Alder (not verified) on 04 Oct 2016 #permalink

With the season overall that's just Atlantic isn't it?

Do we have any global trend or count across all the planet because that would actually be quite interesting to see & know.

Certainly here in Adelaide we've had record rainfall and a number of severe storms including one that blacked out our entire state for a few hours the other week which has , sadly if predictably also become a political football.

(See :… )

I can't remember ever having a wetter year here although it isn't a La Nina yet officially (our Bureau of Meteorology is saying only La Nina watch last time I checked.) which is only anecdata I know but still be interesting to, well see if something is happening planetwide with excessive or abnormal storm numbers.

Shades of Hansen being proven right sooner than expected with his Storms of my Grandchildren text?

The predictions Greg mentioned are just for the (North) Atlantic, yes. Records for other basins are not nearly as complete in the pre-satellite era, so there is less of a basis for making such forecasts. Thanks to records kept aboard merchant ships crossing the Atlantic, we have pretty good coverage of those tropical cyclones back to 1851--it's possible we missed a few very short-duration systems in the pre-satellite era (the sort that would get one or maybe two advisories before dissipating), but that's it.

Tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic are quite rare. There are bigger gaps in shipping lane coverage than in the North Atlantic, but the total number that have been observed can be counted on the fingers of your hands, and only one (which made landfall in Santa Caterina state, Brazil, in 2004 as a Category 2 storm) reached hurricane strength.

As I understand it, the storms you have been seeing in Australia lately are non-tropical. There is some evidence that the frequency of intense non-tropical storms has been increasing. For many land areas we can rely on written records, although even in the best cases modern records only go back a bit more than a century, and many early- to mid-20th century temperature records are suspect because best siting practices had not yet been adopted worldwide.

By Eric Lund (not verified) on 06 Oct 2016 #permalink