Dear Republican, time to make the change, because this is now you.

My current model (subject to change) puts Arizona in the Clinton Column. This is the prediction that has resulted in the most head scratching from those observing this, but it turns out that the Clinton Campaign seems to agree. Clinton surrogates, including Chelsea, Michele Obama, and Bernie Sanders will be in the state over the next few days.

Frankly, I worry about good people going to Arizona stumping for a Liberal Democrat. Perhaps that is because of my own experience living there for several weeks. During that time a local desperado was arrested and made a court appearance, and his family showed up, heavily armed, shot the judge, the DA, others, and took off with the accused to begin a days long chase ended by a shootout in the desert somewhere.

That visit was several years ago, a very short time after mobsters assassinated Arizona Republic investigative reporter Don Bolles because he was getting too close to something.

Some of my best friends are Arizonans. But among Arizonans are the usual deplorables who have no compunction against threatening to shoot children, blowing up reporters, and who knows what else. But, perhaps, the Arizonan version of this particular monster is somewhat better armed, has more ammo, or perhaps, a hair trigger.

Today, Arizona Republicans are threatening children, flashing guns at them, because those children have a vague (and, really, non existent) association with Clinton. And more.

Here, watch this:

Republicans need to realize that this is what they have become.

Individuals who still call themselves Republicans can no longer do the old "I'm one of the good ones" or "I'm a principled economic conservative but social bla bla bla" or "I've been a Republican since the old days when herp a derp a derp" and "Yadda yadda yadda my brains just melted through my sinuses and got all over my shirt because I'm so fucking stupid." That sort of thing.

What Republicans need to realize now is that they are the people that threaten the children selling magazine subscriptions by flashing guns at them, they are the people that show up at opposing candidate's rallies to harass the candidate for money, they are the people who cheer when the Republican candidate calls for the death of his opponent, and they are the people who condone sexual assault and racism.

It is not, dear Republicans true that YOUR PARTY does this, and you do not go along. Too much time has gone by without reform, without taking responsibility. You do this. This is you. You are this.

You are deplorable, even if you've not personally taken part.

You are the guy standing there in the locker room "going along" with the misogynist talk, maybe in a different context later that day, "going along" with the sexual assault itself. You are the guy out with his friends "going along" with racist talk. Maybe you are the guy who, later that night, watches silently when your friends carry out a hate crime. You are the guy "going along" when your candidate calls for the jailing or killing of his opponents, and you say nothing. Maybe later this week you will be the guy who says nothing as his political party produce and encourages the assassins who attack Chelsea Clinton, or Michelle Obama, or Bernie Sanders. If something like that happens this week in Arizona, that will be you, Republican. You.

Hopefully that won't happen. But enough has happened already, and there is no way we can not expect more.

Threats were made against the staff of the Arizona Republic for asking their readers to vote for the most qualified candidate to ever run for the office of President of the United States. Threats are being made against the kids who sell that newspaper's subscription door to door, or in grocery stores, and against others. The video above covers this, but there is more than mentioned there. The following is an extended excerpt from the comments of Mi Ai Parrish, president of the media company that owns The Arizona Republic:

...

What is the correct response to any of the vile threats against me? What is the correct response to the more disturbing actions and words directed against so many others?

I've thought about those responses a lot. Today, I offer you a few.

...

To the anonymous caller who invoked the name of Don Bolles ... and threatened that more of our reporters would be blown up because of the endorsement, I give you Kimberly. She is the young woman who answered the phone when you called. She sat in my office and calmly told three Phoenix police detectives what you had said. She told them that later, she walked to church and prayed for you. Prayed for patience, for forgiveness. Kimberly knows free speech requires compassion.

To those who said we should be shut down, burned down, who said they hoped we would cease to exist under a new presidential administration, I give you Nicole. She is our editor who directs the news staff, independent of our endorsements. After your threats, Nicole put on her press badge and walked with her reporters and photographers into the latest Donald Trump rally in Prescott Valley, Ariz. She stood as Trump encouraged his followers to heckle and boo and bully journalists. Then she came back to the newsroom to ensure our coverage was fair. Nicole knows free speech requires an open debate.

To those of you who have said that someone who disagrees with you deserves to be punished, I give you Phil. Our editorial page editor is a lifelong Republican, a conservative and a patriot. He was an early voice of reason, arguing calmly that Donald Trump didn't represent the values of the party he loves. Phil understands that free speech sometimes requires bravery.

To those of you who have spit on, threatened with violence, screamed at and bullied the young people going door-to-door selling subscriptions, I give you those dozens of young men and women themselves. Many sell subscriptions to work their way through school. Most were too frightened to share even their first names here. But they are still on the job. They know that free speech is part of a society that values hard work and equal opportunity.

To those of you who have called us hacks and losers with no purpose, and that we are un-American, I give you Dennis. He is the investigative reporter who first revealed the despicable mistreatment of our veterans at the VA hospital. His work triggered comprehensive debate and, one hopes, lasting change. He and others on his team have been hailed as heroes by veterans’ families across the country. Dennis knows that free speech is sometimes the only way to hold the powerful accountable.

To those of you who have invoked the name of longtime publisher Gene Pulliam, saying he is spinning in his grave, I give you his wife, Nina. After reporter Don Bolles was targeted by a bomber for doing his job, Nina Pulliam wept at his hospital bed. He died there slowly over 12 days. The Pulliams understood that free speech, and a free press, come at a cost.

Then, of course, there are the threats against the publisher today.

To those of you who have said Jesus will judge me, that you hope I burn in hell, that non-Christians should be kept out of our country, I give you my pastor grandfather. He was imprisoned and tortured for being a Christian, and suffered the murder of his best friend for also refusing to deny Christ. He taught all that freedom of religion is a fragile and precious thing.

Much as my grandfather taught, I also know there are a lot of things worth standing up for.

To those of you who said we should go live with the immigrants we love so much, and who threatened violence against people who look or speak a different way, I give you Jobe Couch.

He was the Army cultural attache and Alabama professor who sponsored my aunts and my mother when they arrived in America from Korea after World War II. There are dozens of descendants of his kindness. Citizens with college degrees, a dentist, lawyers, engineers, pastors, teachers, business owners, a Marine, a publisher and more. Uncle Jobe stood for the power of America as a melting pot. He taught me that one kind man can make a difference.

Dear Republican, this is you. Oh, and you are going to lose Arizona.

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Greg, I think the biggest question to be answered by the upcoming election is if the republican party will survive as is. Will Trump continue in politics and split off a major portion of the GOP? If the GOP loses control of one or both houses, does this speed up a break up of the GOP? Many questions to be asked and answered.

Will Trump continue in politics and split off a major portion of the GOP?

He already has done that. It was a fait accompli as of the end of the Republican nominating convention, leaving the GOP a rump party.

The question becomes "Will Trump continue to lead his new party and formalize it, or will he abandon it after he loses on Nov 8th?"

Losing the Senate on the 8th will be just another one of many blows that are/have been breaking up the GOP.

By Brainstorms (not verified) on 18 Oct 2016 #permalink

tRUMP is an advocate for a type of thuggism that I call Neanderthalism. Cripes, he even looks just like one of the Nat. Geo reconstructions of a Neanderthal. And don't get me wrong. Some of my best "me" is Neanderthal. It's just.....

Republicans have cultivated the low information, low logic, low veracity, easily emotionalized , basket of deplorables voters out there. Democrats and science types haven't exactly been able to reach out to them, while the Republicans have cultivated them like a plague culture.

Republicans have excelled at using media like radio and Television to sell faulty products to consumers unable to think past their next beer, and now they have created a rough beast that is turning its ugly stink eye on them. Oops.

The next month is going to be awfully interesting.

The Republican Party will survive, no doubt, but it will change. It will either become even more fragmented as insurgent "racial realists" try to do what the Tea Party did and try to take over the party, or it will make some effort to try to return to a normal party. I don't think it can succeed in that, there is so much money behind the far right takeover that it may be impossible. But the Republican Party will survive.

By Michael R Haubrich (not verified) on 18 Oct 2016 #permalink

It will survive as a rump party. With the rich establishment that has always been its leaders.

But its voter base, AKA "the deplorables", have been led away by Trump to form a party that is very loyal to him & his "cult of personality".

And in the last week or so, Trump has been focusing on turning his base against the GOP and its leaders (such as Lyin' Ryan).

He's either to going to completely co-opt the GOP and claim its name (after engineering a takeover of the RNC from Racid Rebus), or he'll simply form his own Trumpkin Party as an official third party.

If he abandons politics after losing, though, his party would collapse, leaving his voter base with no where to go except slithering back to the gutted rump of the Republican Party and their internal cancer, the Teahadists.

Then more fireworks would ensue... Grab some popcorn, folks!

By Brainstorms (not verified) on 18 Oct 2016 #permalink

It might not survive. Had this level of chaos been in play one year earlier, there would be a real third party candidate representing either the tea party or the non-tea GOP. It would win in some states. It would guarantee a Dem victory regardless of which candidate Tea and No-Tea put up. The two factions would then struggle to survive and take over, to control the caucus in Congress, individuals would defect to it, there would be interesting geographical factors in play, etc.

You would not end up with a new party (or old GOP) that included both Minnesota Republicans and Texas Republicans, for instance. If the DEM party could at all do so, it would bring in some refugees, but some sort of settlement or understanding would have to happen on abortion.

In any event, with enough chaos at the outset of primaries, or before they start, a split or fractionation could occur, that might or might not leave the GOP as a trimmed down second party, or as a third party nursing a butt hurt, and a different party in its place.

Trump is already planning his next move: a tremendous media empire run by the very smartest people with the best temperaments aka TrumpTV

/s but not really. I have already seen articles talking about his family strategizing for just such a horror show after he loses. It is appalling to imagine the content and contributors.

By Katatonic (not verified) on 18 Oct 2016 #permalink

At least one group has already declined to help him (Trump Jr) start such a network.

By Brainstorms (not verified) on 18 Oct 2016 #permalink

This country needs a conservative party to oppose the Democrats. The Republican Party is not that party, and hasn't been that party since at least the Reagan presidency. (Some argue that it goes back to the Goldwater campaign, but I have no firsthand memories to support that idea.) What this election cycle has done is to remove any remaining doubt that the Republican Party is not a conservative party.

That's why, after a quarter century as an unaffiliated voter, I finally gave up the pretense and am now a registered Democrat. When I first moved to this state, it was so Republican-dominated that I needed to be able to vote in Republican primaries, which were too often the de facto election (we have semi-open primaries). That's no longer the case, and I am not willing to wear a hazmat suit to the primary polls.

The current Republican party is not viable, long term, in its present form. They can try to go back to actual conservative principles, but IMHO they are too far down the rabbit hole to succeed at that approach. More likely, they will conclude (correctly, but for the wrong reasons) that Trump wasn't conservative enough, just as McCain and Romney weren't conservative enough. But the genie that Trump has let out of the bottle won't be easy to put back in.

By Eric Lund (not verified) on 19 Oct 2016 #permalink

"This country needs a conservative party to oppose the Democrats. "

They do: the Democrats. THEY are the conservative party. What you NEED is a liberal party to oppose the Democrats, or at least to counterbalance the Republicans.

And it's been a long time since politicians knew how to be an opposition.

Folks both parties are just one side of the same rotten coin................

By notlurking (not verified) on 19 Oct 2016 #permalink

No, the parties are different sides of the same coin, and one side is slimier than the other. What's your point?

By Obstreperous A… (not verified) on 19 Oct 2016 #permalink

Why, on the top of his head, of course!

By Brainstorms (not verified) on 19 Oct 2016 #permalink