Well, we appear to have a second TC for this season--though it has not yet been officially named Beryl. Right now it's just Tropical Depression TWO. The storm is hanging out off the coast of the Carolinas, and a tropical storm watch has been issued. Jeff Masters is tracking this proto-Beryl, which he expects to remain at sea. Meanwhile, the first National Hurricane Center forecast discussion contains this important section:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO POORLY INITIALIZED SST CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS OVER 80F SSTS...WHEREAS SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SSTS ARE 82-83F UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE POOR AT BEST AND... THEREFORE... A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTING FACTOR. IN CONTRAST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHWEST... WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW PATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.
In essence, hurricane forecasters are still much better when it comes to forecasting tracks than forecasting intensity--and that's a key weakness in our current hurricane defenses. We're still vulnerable to cases like the devastating Galveston hurricane of 1900, which apparently rapidly intensified just before landfall. Models can't reliably predict this sort of behavior, meaning that even if a region has been warned about a storm, it hasn't necessarily been warned about how strong a storm it's gonna get. And that makes a huge difference.
In any case, I'll keep tracking Tropical Depression TWO, soon perhaps to be Tropical Storm Beryl....
- Log in to post comments
More like this
I am close...I'll keep tracking, too.