It's official, we have our fifth storm of the season. The NHC is now projecting that it will reach hurricane strength within days. And here's the part of the forecast that's disturbing:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.....CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
In short, if this one gets into the warm Gulf, we could be in for serious trouble. And that's where the long range track forecast is currently pointing--with large associated uncertainties, of course...
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Not to panic just yet. The biggest uncertainty is likely the track through the Carribean. A little bit to the North, and Cuba's topography will seriously weaken it. A little to the west, and the Yucatan might do the same. To say nothing about the possibility of encountering unfavorable atmospheric conditions (still possible this far out).
You are correct that it could end up as a bad one, we are still a few day's away from knowing that. Oil prices have already started going up, and Gulf oil platform operators are making contingincy plans.
Hey Chris,
Heads up from one tropical weather watcher to another: have you checked out Crown Weather Services' tropical weather page?
The probability of Ernesto becoming a land falling major hurricane appears to be low ... but the impact of such an event would be high. Much of the Gulf coast (and not just NOLA) continues to suffer the after effects of last year's 4 land falling major hurricanes. The baroque relationship between local and federal agencies - whose complexity may have played a role in Katrina the disaster - seems to be as much a mess as it was last year. The NOLA levees are said to have been restored to 'pre-Katrina' reliability. Knowing that some of these levees were leaking before Katrina hit - this is most charitably described as scant comfort. A significant proportion of those affected by Katrina continue to live in tents, and in inadequately repaired houses. In this context, the latest forecast track is troubling. Also troubling are the Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity maps, and noaa's maps of tropical heat potential, which indicate the Gulf is warm enough to support a major hurricane (although perhaps not a long-lived one), provided shear is low and there is not too much dry air. Fortunately the gulf is not as warm as it was last year.