This storm has less than 24 hours over water before getting acquainted with the Carolinas. But Ernesto is already stronger than it has been in quite a while: 55 mph winds, 996 mb of pressure. It's forecast to strengthen further, but it's all a question of how much....
Update: One possible answer to my question posed above is, we may never know. As Lixion Avila puts it in the latest forecast discussion:
SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64 KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.
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The Hurricane may (or may not) directly strike the Outer Banks.) I've updated the title of the post to update concern that Hurricane Arthur has a much increased chance of directly striking coastal regions in North Carolina. Scroll down to the most recent update below to find out more. I'm adding…
SEE ONGOING UPDATES BELOW FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
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I have a much larger post coming out about Ike and hurricanes in general, but for now here is a quick update:
Ike is going to come ashore between Seven PM tongight and Seven AM tomorrow morning. Since it is a very large storm, the most severe winds will be affecting a very large area.
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I'll be watching. After Fran, Dennis, Floyd and Isabel, I am a bit too cocky, making fun of my terrified new neighbors (who came from the UK) for being so afraid of Ernesto coming here.