Don't look now...but the latest forecast has Florence as a strong Category 2 storm hitting Bermuda in 96 hours. Of course, that's still a long range outlook subject to the usual caveats and uncertainties. I don't know how vulnerable Bermuda is to hurricanes due to geography and such. But you know they've got to be watching this one closely.....
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Above is the latest water vapor image for Ernesto, which now has a central pressure that's dropped to 997 mb and sustained winds that are nearing 60 mph. In short, it looks like this is going to be a Category 1 hurricane soon, our first of the season. And the projected track continues to look…
The NHC has now upgraded the latest thick cloud blob to a tropical storm, making it Florence. You can see the five day cone above. Note: the forecasters describe the latest disturbance as "VERY LARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE." Indeed, they've had a fair spot of trouble even pinpointing the center…
SEE ONGOING UPDATES BELOW FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
Tropical Depression Eleven is currently located way east of Florida, and is predicted to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night some time. It would be nameD Joaquin. Some time Wednesday night, the storm is predicted to turn north and head…
UPDATE Sept 9, AM
Note that tropical storm force winds may start hitting southern Florida around 1 or 2 PM today, Saturday, and will reach central Florida by about 8AM Sunday.
The eye of the storm should be abreast southern Florida at around sunup on Sunday. The storm may remain a major hurricane…
Bermuda's fairly resistant. Construction standards are quite high. Bermuda was hit by Fabian as a Cat 3 in 2003, which killed 4 (someone trying to cross the causeway from the main island to the airport and the would-be rescuers) and did some damage. Most of it was roof damage with very few buildings totalled. The low-lying buildings had their windows broken out by the surge, but after clean-up and new glass, the businesses were back open fairly soon after it. The high ground in the middle of the islands is easily high enough to get out of the surge's way.
Supplement to Harold's info about Fabian:
There was substantial to drastic beach erosion, and both houses and roads on the shore were undermined.