Jeff Masters has just posted his outlook on the meteorological factors that should determine hurricane activity over the next two weeks. It's great reading, especially for weather wonks. Masters sees a roughly 70 percent chance of a named storm in the next two weeks, as wind shear is expected to relax and and sea surface temperatures are warm enough.
I was particularly struck by this figure that Masters showed:
I don't think anyone expects the 2007 hurricane season to be as wild as 2005--which, as I detail in Storm World, set all kinda records for July hurricane activity. Nevertheless, this figure clearly shows that at least in parts of the Caribbean, there is more tropical cyclone heat potential (in essence, deep warm water) than at a similar time in 2005.....
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BBC News has this story: The human cost of Karachi's storm.
It makes me wonder if such storms could have geopolitical effects on the, excuse the phrase, "war on terror."
It's a bit off topic - sorry, just a passing thought.
I have my fingers crossed - we're attending a conference in Austin in early August and plan to drive down to Galveston for a few days while we're in Texas...
Note however Jeff's words about the steering currents. As long as the Bermuda - Azores high stays where it is, most of the storms will recurve out to sea, staying well away from the high heat content of the Caribbean and the Gulf, making strong storms much less likely.
Laurie, even during an active season, any individual city is unlikely to suffer a landfall, especially during a short visit.
Don't forget to check up on the weather forecast just before you leave, and keep up on it while you're there, but remember, the risk of any individual small piece of coastline is tiny, even when a landfall somewhere is likely.
Also remember that when they say "Houston," they mean a hundred miles of coastline. This is Texas, after all.
And Austin? Pshaw. We went to Austin to escape Rita, and didn't really need to go at all (we were slightly northwest of the city limits of Houston but decided to leave anyway).