The latest discussion from Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecaster Sam Houston (yes, that's really his name) says it all:
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP. DESPITE HINTS THAT THE HURRICANE MIGHT MOVE OVER COOLER OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES...AND THAT IT WOULD EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM JTWC AND SAB WERE 6.0...WHILE HFO REPORTED 5.5. THE ADT AT 1200 UTC IS 6.2...WHICH SUGGESTS A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 120 KT.
That's right: Flossie has strengthened since the last advisory (which had it at 115 knots). This storm isn't obeying any of the rules. And that's pretty unnerving....here is the latest image of Flossie approaching Hawaii:
Meanwhile the National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression 4 in the Atlantic...which may soon be Tropical Storm Dean. This is one to watch closely...more soon.
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By the way, I noticed that the "Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule" page also showed a possible depression forming off the Yucatan.
We were in Hawaii a couple weeks ago and surface temps were about 80-82 degrees. Plenty of warm water out there right now.
Kona was getting rain from a tropical storm then towards the end of our trip. Very unusual for this time of year for them.
Weird weather. ur summer in San Diego has been very cool up until this week - we are getting hot now...
This from a friend in Kona late last night:
You chose the right time to get off this rock. The volcano is shaking with 9 earthquakes over the last 3 hours. One quake registered a 6.0 richter. and a catagory 4 hurricane will be 70 miles from the island by 11am Tuesday morning. The whole island is shut down in preparation. WOOO HOOOOO!!!!!
Any idea how much of an effect this has on the observatories on Mauna Kea? I presume the clouds shut them down, but I would guess the storms just deflect from the flanks of the two 14,000-foot major peaks (Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa).
My only Hawaiian experience was a half-day at Volcanoes National Park followed by three nights of observing at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility at the peak of Mauna Kea.
No storms or earthquakes, but it was tough duty for a writer of children's books :)
Click my name for a travelogue.
Is it crazy to be a fairly concerned about the intersection of these earthquakes and massive amounts of rainwater on the slopes of a massive volcano? What are the chances of the two resulting in a (very) large landslide?
Landslides are always a concern when tropical cyclones strike a mountainous area. For example - Hurricane Mitch dumped tons of rain on mountainous areas of Central America, and the resulting landslides, enhanced by decades of poor soil management (thanks, Chiquita Banana and United Fruit Co), resulted in an estimated 18,000 deaths. Normally - I'd say that TC landfalls and earthquakes are both such short lived events that they are unlikely to occur closely enough to result in extra-huge landslides. But as there appear to be volcano-induced earthquakes going on presently - I'd say there's some chance of dangerous combination.
Fortunately - Flossie has already weakened to cat 2 (and is unlikely to bring hurricane force winds to the shores of the islands), and the area of Hawaii to be rained on is sparsely populated, so the resulting landslides may not result in many deaths.
Donna,
I live in downtown San Diego, and today I had to sleep skyclad. Couldn't get comfortable otherwise. Our weather keeps changing because the usual steady patterns don't get firmly established before something new pops up.
Where Flossie is concerned I suspect a lot of the confusion is due to the fact our data collection has a rather coarse grain. Thanks to this a lot of detail is being lost. Since we don't have all the data we need to make truly accurate forecasts re movement etc., we're limited to hopefully accurate guesses.
Where landslides are concerned, such will always be a problem wherever the land is bare of ground cover, or otherwise denuded. When a combination of high winds and heavy rain is involved, you're going to get a lot of soil dislodged and sent downhill. Even a deteriorating tropical depression can cause problems with the sort of situation you have at Mauna Loa.