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  2. Will an October Surprise Backfire?

Will an October Surprise Backfire?

By mikethemadbiologist on August 30, 2006.

I came across this interesting poll of the NJ Senate race. It appears that just mentioning the Iraq War hurts Republicans, even popular ones:

In the study, half of the respondents were asked questions about President Bush and the war in Iraq before answering questions about the Senate race, and half were asked about the Senate race first. Among those respondents who were asked about Bush and Iraq first, Menendez [Dem] held a two point advantage, 41 to 39 percent. But among the respondents who were not primed to think about the war in Iraq, Kean[Rep] held an 11 point advantage, 47 to 36 percent.

Three observations:

  1. The Iraq War is really hurting Republicans. The Democrats need to run on and not run from this issue.
  2. Polls are tricksy things, they are...
  3. Unlike 2004, where the Bin Laden tapes release before the election hurt the Democrats (particularly Kerry), I think any kind of October surprise will backfire and hurt Republicans. This is good because it lowers the likelihood Bush will invade something.
Tags
Democrats
Iraq

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It's important to note that the MOE is +/- 4 percentage points in these polls. That means that of that 13 point swing, we can really only be sure about a 5 point difference (4% in each poll).

On the other hand, it could be as high as 21%.

Either way, it's interesting stuff.