So RPM thinks he's all clever, with the Double Entendre Fridays-- he's not the only one who can game search engine traffic...
If you're one of those philistines who doesn't like basketball go revel in nostalgia ("Cow... yup, yup yup.."), because we're all about the hoops this morning. It's that time of year again, when everybody rushes to fll out their brackets for the NCAA Tournament office pools, and we here at Chateau Steelypips are no exception:
Of course, the Subject: line aside, I never win these things, because I always pick the teams I root for to go far-- I figure, why put my rooting interests in conflict with my financial interests? I never want to find myself in a position where I feel obliged to root for my team to lose-- I'd rather fail to win the pool than root against my team.
This year, though, I have a secret weapon that will propel me to victory, and I'll reveal it below the fold:
The secret weapon: I've watched almost no basketball this year. How does that help? Well, you know how these things are always won by a secretary, or somebody's girlfriend, or somebody's girlfriend's secretary-- somebody who doesn't even watch sports? What with teaching and research and fretting about tenure, I've watched so little basketball this year that I might as well be somebody's girlfriend's secretary. I'm picking games more or less at random, which means I'm sure to do well.
I do have a couple of rules of thumb that I stick to when picking games, that I'll share here (because they never do me any damn good):
- Looking for a way to buck the office trend and pick a champion other than Duke? Pick them to lose to a good team from the Big East or Big Ten. Their style ofmplay means that they're always vulnerable to a team with a strong inside game, and those leagues thrive on that. Sadly, there aren't any such teams in their part of the bracket.
- Everybody knows this one, but I'll say it anyway: a #5 always loses to a #12. Of course, the Selection Committee has once again put Syracuse as a #5 seed (a fine prize for winning the Big East), which means I can expect them to go down in flames. Again.
- In the same vein, #9's beat #8's, and #10's beat #7's, more often than not.
- Lute Olson is my nemesis. When I pick Arizona to go to the Final Four, they lose in the first round, and when I pick them to lose in the first round, they go to the Final Four. They're a #8 this year, so given my previous point, you should probably pick them to beat Villanova at least.
If you'd like to match wits against the ScienceBlogs crew, Dave has the sign-up details. I'm in there as "StampCollecting," in tribute to Ernest Rutherford-- in science, there is only physics; bracketology is stamp collecting.
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Go for win-win scenarios and always bet on your favourites to lose.
If they win, you're happy, if they lose, at least you bet correctly. No?
So, that's your tactic, eh? I had Duke winning it all, but I'm half tempted to change my brackets to put Davidson in the final four. This would cause no end of consternation to Greta, who has several members of the team in her Perception and Attention lab.
Steinn: Go for win-win scenarios and always bet on your favourites to lose.
If they win, you're happy, if they lose, at least you bet correctly. No?
No. There's never enough money in an office pool to make up for my team losing. And in the big national picking contests, I'm never close enough to winning for that to make a difference.
Dave: So, that's your tactic, eh? I had Duke winning it all, but I'm half tempted to change my brackets to put Davidson in the final four. This would cause no end of consternation to Greta, who has several members of the team in her Perception and Attention lab.
Well, see, you've already got a good reason to root against them, so you might as well pick them to lose...
(One of the guys in our lunchtime game played at SUNY Albany, and remarked that they were really hoping for a #15 seed, so they'd get a better match-up. Kind of a different perspective on things...)
This brings up bad memories of my first bracket experience - 1993 at UNC. I was in two pools: physics dept. and a genetics lab. I filled out both brackets the same with UNC and Mich in the final game. I wanted to put UNC as the champ in both, not just because they were my team, but also because I had watched UNC rise and Mich fall in their game over the couple months since Mich beat UNC with a last second shot.
I figured I'd play the percentages. Several folks in the genetics lab had UNC winning it all. I figured I would not win in total points compared to all others who had UNC, so I put Mich to win it (the only one in that pool). Turns out that in both pools, the early games got me so far ahead in points that the only way I could have lost was to lose in the final. I won physics, but lost genetics with four times the payout!
Advice #1: go with your gut, period.
Advice #2: that is the only time I ever came close to winning a pool, so you probably shouldn't trust my Advice #1! :-(