hurricanes
cmooney | July 22, 2008
This storm, heading for the Mexico-Texas border, is now a hurricane. Our second of the 2008 season, and it's not even August yet....
Eric Berger has some interesting discussion of just how busy this year is starting out. Only three years in recorded history have been busier so early, and two of them are the busiest two years in history: 2005 and 1933.
Did I mention I was worried?
cmooney | July 21, 2008
[Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures: A Whole Lot of Energy Just Waiting for a Storm]
I've just blogged over at the Daily Green about the latest tropical developments. I'm a bit stunned that we're on our fourth named Atlantic storm--and likely soon enough, our second hurricane--and it isn't yet August.
This isn't good people. This is almost on pace with 2005, and we all know what happened in August, September, and October of that year.
You can read my full worried statement here.
cmooney | July 9, 2008
Right now, Hurricane Bertha is a reintensifying Category 1 over the open Atlantic. But on Monday, the storm rapidly intensified to Category 3 or possible Category 4 status before a subsequent rapid weakening occurred yesterday.
Bertha was odd to begin with--having formed extremely far east for so early in the season, or indeed, for any time during the season--and becoming a July major hurricane was yet another remarkable feat. All of which makes Bertha a particularly troubling storm, as I write over at The Daily Green:
But perhaps even more worrisome is this recent appearance of very intense…
sheril | July 3, 2008Meet Tropical Storm Bertha:
Chris may be driving across the desert, but he's always got an eye to developing storms and has asked me to post the latest while he's offline.
Bertha has formed in the far eastern Atlantic and according to Jeff Masters, this is the first time we're observing a tropical depression east of 34° longitude in the first half of July. Coincidentally, sea surface temperatures in the area are 2-3°C above average...
More at WunderBlog and from the National Hurricane Center.
cmooney | June 17, 2008...we learn that New Orleans still can't necessarily withstand a strong Category 2. In other words, three years after Katrina, we still don't have the protections we were supposed to have before the storm hit. Gotta love the Corps, and its masters--Bush and Congress.
All this, and I've been hatching plans to head back New Orleans for my 31st birthday in September...right during the peak of the season.
cmooney | May 31, 2008It doesn't look like much, and probably won't amount to much either. Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center just renamed the remains of East Pacific Tropical Storm Alma--after crossing over Central America, this storm is in the Atlantic and should be called Arthur. I'm not even going to post a picture, because the cloud blob is now back over land again. But still, so it begins....
cmooney | May 16, 2008The Intersection just got an email from Oxfam America, asking for our help getting the word out about the urgent need to help cyclone survivors in Myanmar. To quote in brief: "In the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis - which struck Myanmar on May 3, washing away entire communities - conditions remain dire for millions of people. Food and water shortages are rapidly increasing risk of disease, and more bad weather threatens those who have survived....With death tolls climbing - the latest count puts deaths above 120,000, with 500,000 homeless - we are urgently looking for support from outlets like…
cmooney | May 7, 2008That's what CNN is suggesting. This puts the catastrophe at tsunami scale. And it suggests that Nargis could rank among the top three or four most deadly cyclones of modern times.
My god.
Courtesy of Weather Underground, the deadliest cyclones list:
1. Great Bhola Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1970, 550,000
2. Hooghly River Cyclone, India and Bangladesh, 1737, 350,000
3. Haiphong Typhoon, Vietnam, 1881, 300,000
4. Coringa, India, 1839, 300,000
5. Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1584, 200,000
6. Great Backerganj Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1876, 200,000
7. Chittagong, Bangladesh, 1897, 175,000
8. Super…
cmooney | May 7, 2008MSNBC's Alan Boyle, author of Cosmic Log, just interviewed me about the ever worsening Nargis catastrophe. You can hear the audio here, and excerpts here. An excerpt:
Q: Is this another sign that the global warming nightmare is coming upon us?
Mooney: I'd be careful about saying that. There's good evidence that global warming should affect tropical cyclones ... in some way and probably make them stronger on average. But when you get a catastrophe like this, global warming isn't the direct cause, and it really doesn't explain why there's been so much suffering.
You really have to look at other…
sheril | May 7, 2008Myanmar ranks #4 in the world for annual forest area lost per year. Between 2000 and 2005, the country lost, on average, 466,000 hectares per year which puts their annual deforestation rate at 1.45% based on FAO statistics.
Given deforestation results in higher flooding and erosion rates and mangroves serve as important buffers against storm surges, I'm wondering to what degree Myanmar's serious deforestation played a role in the tremendous loss of life from Cyclone Nargis...
cmooney | May 6, 2008
We've been watching Cyclone Nargis for a week here at the Intersection, but I've finally done my first lengthy piece about the disaster over at Science Progress. Over there, I make the following points, most of which I don't think you're seeing elsewhere:
1. It's Not About Global Warming, But Poverty and Infrastructure.
2. The American Media Present a Very Selective Picture of Cyclone Disasters in the Developing World.
3. Hurricane/Cyclone Forecasting in the North Indian Region is Lackluster at Best.
4. Hurricanes Can Bring Down Governments.
I want to expand upon the last point, which is…
sheril | May 5, 2008A death toll this high is unfathomable. No words beyond a reminder we collectively share this pale blue dot and must now do all we can to help the people of Myanmar in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis.
sheril | May 5, 2008* UPDATE: The death toll from the Myanmar cyclone has exceeded 10,000 people. *
For over a week, we've been watching and worrying about Cyclone Nargis from halfway around the world. The storm hit Maynmar on Saturday with wind speeds reaching 190km/h (120mph).
YANGON, Myanmar (CNN) -- Almost 4,000 people have died and another 3,000 remain missing in Myanmar as a result of this weekend's devastating cyclone, state media reported Monday amid fears that the death toll could continue to soar.
Diplomats summoned to a government briefing on Monday said the foreign minister had acknowledged that as…
cmooney | May 2, 2008Kinda like opening up your fist after you've punched someone...in this case, that someone was Myanmar, and the punch came at Category 3 strength....
CORRECTION: Looks like the punch was actually a Category 4...
cmooney | April 28, 2008
Meet Cyclone Nargis--image courtesy of CIMSS--which may be set to terrorize the Bay of Bengal region. This storm is expected to steadily intensify to Category 4 or higher, and then hit something. That something could be India, Bangladesh, or Burma/Myanmar...not a development that anyone in this vulnerable region needs.
Read more for my take on the developing Nargis over at the Daily Green.
cmooney | April 14, 2008I just did my latest Daily Green item about Tropical Storm Erin--the last 2007 Atlantic storm to have its definitive report (PDF) emerge from the bowels of the National Hurricane Center.
Suffice it to say that the delay seems well justified--meteorologists still don't really have a clue what Erin was. I mean, we're talking about a storm that barely attained tropical storm status over the Gulf, but that developed an eye, 995 mb central pressure, and 50 knot winds over Oklahoma!
Read here for more on this very, very wacky weather phenomenon....
cmooney | April 10, 2008
[Storm tracks, 2007 Atlantic hurricane season.]
Well, it's April, and the earliest of the pre-season Atlantic hurricane forecasts have appeared. My latest Daily Green entry parses two sets of predictions that are really quite similar:
Colorado State University: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, heightened U.S. intense hurricane landfall risk
Tropical Storm Risk: 14.8 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, 3.5 intense hurricanes, heightened U.S. intense hurricane landfall risk
In both 2006 and 2007, the big U.S. landfall didn't happen. But we won't keep on getting lucky....and…
cmooney | February 15, 2008The Southern Hemisphere cyclone season is starting to pick up. We had a Category 4 (Hondo) in the South Indian ocean last week, and this week, we have twin storms (Ivan and Nicholas) aiming at Madagascar and northwestern Australia, respectively.
I've taken the liberty of blogging on all this over at The Daily Green. More analysis there, but for now I'll leave you with the latest track map for Cyclone Nicholas, which doesn't look good...
P.S.: Why the hell did anyone dare to name another storm Ivan ever again? That's just looking for trouble...
cmooney | February 4, 2008
Just like Hurricane Felix, 2007's Hurricane Dean has now also been upgraded by the National Hurricane Center. I have done my latest Storm Pundit item about the new official tropical cyclone report (PDF). Interesting facts:
* Both Dean and Felix had maximum sustained winds of 150 knots, or almost 175 miles per hour (as estimated in these final reports). That means both were stronger than any other hurricane anywhere else in the world in 2007...which is odd.
* At landfall, Dean kept intensifying and there is a new estimate for the storm's minimum sea level pressure--905 millibars. That leaves…
cmooney | January 24, 2008
[Hurricane Felix near peak intensity in early September.]
So finally, the National Hurricane Center has released its definitive report (PDF) on 2007's Hurricane Felix. Definitive reports on Hurricane Dean and Tropical Storm Erin still await. However, the news from the Felix report is quite significant--Felix has been bumped up in intensity, making it the strongest storm recorded in 2007, with 150 knot maximum sustained winds (more than 170 miles per hour).
I did my latest Daily Green item about this. As I wrote:
Why was Felix upgraded? Some of you may recall that the aircraft reconnaissance…