hurricanes
cmooney | November 13, 2007This storm was recently upgraded to a Category 4--and we should all be watching it closely. Knowing the history of cyclones in this region, I am very, very concerned. My latest Daily Green update on Sidr, considering some different scenarios depending on the particular storm track, is here. Suffice it to say that we can only hope Sidr weakens considerably before landfall....
cmooney | November 12, 2007
I just did my latest post at the Daily Green--we have a potentially very deadly storm in the Bay of Bengal right now. This is the area where hurricanes/cyclones can take the greatest toll. Let's hope for weakening and a landfall in a less populous area. Yikes.
Read here for more.
cmooney | November 9, 2007From Jeff Masters' blog, describing the Dutch response to a powerful North Sea storm:
While today's storm did not approach the 1953 storm in severity, it did bring the highest storm surge seen in the past 20 years to the North Sea. The massive flood gates that protect the Dutch port of Rotterdam were closed for the first time since they were constructed in the 1990s. From early media accounts, the gates did their job admirably, protecting the Netherlands from inundation. Water levels reached 3.16 meters above mean sea level in the southern Netherlands, and 3.40 meters above sea level in the…
cmooney | November 9, 2007
[A NOAA P-3 on the ground in Washington, D.C.]
This is a subject I've been meaning to do some reporting on for some time, but with the move and all my other obligations, I just haven't gotten the chance. So I've decided simply to blog about it (even though blogging is just a "hobby," and not a real job--right?).
You may or may not be aware that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration flies regular missions into hurricanes using instrumented aircraft. Two of the planes they use are Orion WP-3Ds, or P-3s for short, and they're nicknamed "Kermit" and "Miss Piggy."
Well, it has…
cmooney | November 5, 2007
I've already had much to say about this year's puzzling Atlantic hurricane season. Indeed, I've called the year "schizophrenic." But now, the Houston Chronicle's crack science reporter Eric Berger has done an entire story on what the season does and doesn't mean. I'm quoted in there several times, and I also have my reaction to the Berger piece up at the newly relaunched and revamped Daily Green.
In essence, I argue this: As we move further and further away from the dramatic 2005 hurricane season, the science actually seems to get more murky...but that's no excuse for not protecting…
cmooney | October 29, 2007Just when you thought hurricane season was over...Nope. Here's Tropical Storm Noel. Probably not going to get very intense...but a major rainfall risk in the Caribbean.
I had gotten fond of saying that this Atlantic hurricane season came in like a lion and went out like a lamb. Let's hope the lion isn't returning...
cmooney | October 1, 2007
[The rapidly intensifying Hurricane Lorenzo makes landfall.]
I've done my latest Daily Green "Storm Pundit" post, about how this hurricane season is in some ways a lion, in others a lamb. Excerpt:
In short, not even a third of the named storms have attained hurricane strength this year, whereas over the previous four years, something much closer to a half have become at least this strong. (Note, however, that this year's Tropical Storm Karen may be upgraded to hurricane status in post-season reanalysis.) One reason for the relative quietude is that despite La Nina conditions in the Pacific…
cmooney | September 27, 2007
Karen, possibly a hurricane for something like three hours, maybe.
My latest "Storm Pundit" post just went up--it's about Tropical Storm Karen, which was probably a hurricane yesterday for a very brief period and may be officially named one in post-season reanalysis (assuming the now-highly sheared storm doesn't make any kind of comeback). I point out that if Karen hadn't been in the Atlantic, I doubt we'd be able to look forward to this type of highly detailed reanalysis...and that's one of the key problem with hurricane datasets from around the world.
cmooney | September 25, 2007Tropical Storm Karen has formed in the open Atlantic, and it's simply gigantic. Accordingly, I've done my latest "Storm Pundit" post about Karen, hurricane size, and what this storm--our eleventh of the year--says about the accuracy of some of the pre-season forecasts. You can read the piece here. Meanwhile, I'll leave you with a picture of Karen that gives some sense of scale:
P.S.: Over at The Scientific Activist, Nick Anthis has penned a nice review of Storm World. I particularly like his personal reminiscences about being a kid obsessed with the weather. Check it out.
cmooney | September 13, 2007From forecaster James Franklin:
BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.
Well, that's blunt enough, no? I'm not entirely clear on what Franklin means, though--the record hinges on "near landfall", I guess. Obviously there has been more rapid strengthening…
cmooney | September 13, 2007Leave it to The Onion:
MIAMI--South Florida residents were overcome with fear, confusion, and an unnerving sense of dread Tuesday when they learned that an unidentified hurricane is heading for their area--its origin uncertain, its intentions unclear, and perhaps most frightening, its name unknown....
...Lacking any reliable information on the character traits of the popularly dubbed "Hurricane That Shall Not Be Named," thousands have fled the area, hoping to escape its destructive winds, driving rain, and chilling impersonality.
"If this hurricane were a Wilma or a Frank, or even a Rebekah,…
cmooney | September 13, 2007
Jeez, Humberto came out of nowhere yesterday, eh?
And now I'm worried: I'm supposed to be celebrating my thirtieth birthday (technically Sept. 20) with family and friends and a trip to the hometown of New Orleans tomorrow. The idea was to kick back and hopefully achieve some acceptance of how I spent my dissolute twenties--aka doing odd stuff like writing a hurricane book.
Now, though, there may well be hurricane related rainfall to worry about all weekend!
Humberto, you suck; and no, I don't appreciate the irony....
cmooney | September 12, 2007Here's a picture of the Caribbean and Central Atlantic this morning. A tropical wave that came off of Africa a while back--and that the National Hurricane Center is designating 91L--looks much more organized than it did yesterday, as you can plainly see.
I'm not a forecaster, though I pay attention to some of the same stuff they do. In any event, I have a hunch we may be hearing more about this one soon.
Meanwhile, I am off to give various New Jersey talks, but hopefully will be checking in here at some point during the day....
cmooney | September 10, 2007As I noted in the last post, we've now got an official La Nina situation in the tropical Pacific. Here's one of the many figures of current cold anomalies courtesy of NOAA:
Over at the Daily Green, my latest "Storm Pundit" entry discusses what La Nina likely means for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. In short, although we can never say precisely what a given year will bring, there's a higher risk of U.S. damage during La Nina years, for a variety of reasons. So...we are hardly in the clear. Not yet.
Details and discussion here.
cmooney | September 10, 2007See here (PDF). Top bullet points:
â¢La Niña conditions are present across the tropical Pacific.
â¢SST anomalies have become more negative in the central equatorial Pacific, and remain positive in the western equatorial Pacific.
â¢Most dynamical models predict a further strengthening of La Niña in the next couple of months, while half of the statistical models indicate a weak La Niña through the end of the year.
â¢Recent equatorial Pacific SST trends and model forecasts indicate La Niña conditions will develop further during the next several months.
I'll have more shortly on what this…
cmooney | September 4, 2007Colorado State's Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray are out with their next Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecast (PDF), and get this: They're calling for three more Atlantic hurricanes in September, one of them intense (Category 3-5).
They're also calling for two more hurricanes in October-November, including yet another intense one. The total forecast (including Felix as a September storm) is for 9 more named storms, five more hurricanes, and two more intense hurricanes. In short, we are hardly in the clear yet.
The prediction of a busy October-November, in particular, seems consistent with NOAA's…
cmooney | September 4, 2007
Felix has restrengthened overnight, and it's going to hit just as hard as Hurricane Dean did two weeks ago--140 knots, or 160 mile per hour sustained winds. Damage at the coast south of the Honduras-Nicaragua border will be potentially catastrophic, but what may be even more worrying is inland rainfall.
Meanwhile, what a start the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is off to: The first two storms to reach hurricane strength have also reached Category 5 hurricane strength, and furthermore, have made landfall as Category 5s. We started the year with just three storms on record having hit as full…
cmooney | September 2, 2007I'm flabbergasted. So are the forecasters. These are their words, and they should be read in their entirety:
THERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY. FELIX HAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-
DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT
THE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI. THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A SYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD…
cmooney | September 2, 2007
Whoa boy. And the intensification very likely isn't over yet. In fact, as I note in the latest Storm Pundit column, the Caribbean only gets more conducive to hurricane strengthening as you head further west; and indeed, there's a deep patch of warm water ahead of Felix:
How strong will Felix get? I'm thinking at least a Category 4...