hurricanes
cmooney | June 5, 2007
Cyclone Gonu, in the Arabian Sea, was our first Category 5 storm of the year yesterday. Now, as I write this, it is still a very strong storm and is about to set an ominous record. As Margie Keiper puts it over at the Weather Underground:
An unusual event is happening over the next 48 hours, as the first tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, and major hurricane-force winds at that, is approaching the Gulf of Oman, to strike the eastern coast of Oman, curve northward, and make landfall on the coast of Iran. In the tropical cyclone best tracks and the modern era of weather satellites,…
cmooney | June 1, 2007
As if to announce today's June 1 date, Tropical Storm Barry just formed--unexpectedly--in the Gulf, and may now be intensifying over the infamous warm Loop Current. Neither Jeff Masters nor the official forecasters think Barry is going to become a hurricane before reaching Florida, however. The National Hurricane Center puts the storm's intensity at 40 knots, though Masters thinks it's stronger than that.
Masters also makes this interesting observation:
The hurricane season of 2007 is in second place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when…
cmooney | May 31, 2007 The last of the pre-season hurricane forecasts--from Colorado State University's Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, the latter of whom happens to be a chief character in my new book--is now out (PDF). It is unchanged from the previous Klotzbach/Gray forecast: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. Why this prediction? These are the key factors: Warm sea surface temperatures, ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions expected in the Pacific, and relatively weak trade winds over the Atlantic (meaning less surface evaporation, and thus less heat getting out of the ocean).
The always…
cmooney | May 30, 2007
Well, we've got a second named storm in the Northeast Pacific. As NHC forecaster James Franklin notes, this is an unusual (although not un-heard of) occurrence:
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1956 AND 1984...HAVE THERE BEEN TWO EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NAMED STORMS IN MAY.
Barbara is apparently steadily intensifying--the Wisconsin folks estimate the intensity at 45 knots by now. Because this storm could become a hurricane before striking Mexico, it is going to be watched very closely.
Meanwhile, what is the point of a storm like Barbara, or any…
cmooney | May 29, 2007
It's not even June yet, but a second storm seems to be forming in the Northeast Pacific off the western coast of Mexico, as seen in the image above from the National Hurricane Center. The center's first forecast discussion says this:
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 30C...AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT. THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY HIGHLY DIVERGENT... AND COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO 80 KT OR HIGHER...AND THE SHIPS…
cmooney | May 26, 2007Hello, everyone. My name is Norman Doering. I'm your weather watcher for the week while Chris Mooney is away. You haven't heard from me until now because there haven't been any new hurricanes this week.
However, earlier today I was checking in on the weather sites that I promised to Chris Mooney that I would watch, there were no hurricanes anywhere on the planet -- but there was a tropical depression in the Pacific, off the coast of Acapulco, Mexico. It looked like this:
I checked back just recently, and it's now looking like a real storm:
I will check back later today to see what has…
cmooney | May 22, 2007The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2007 Hurricane Forecast today predicting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be 'above normal' for this year. The season officially begins June 1 and NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms. Seven to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, of which three to five could reach Category 3 or higher.
For the full story, click here
posted by Sheril R. Kirshenbaum
cmooney | May 20, 2007
Typhoon Yutu in the West Pacific, currently recurving and heading towards Iwo Jima. Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory.
Over the past day or so, the second Pacific typhoon of the year--Yutu, or Amang--has rapidly intensified. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center now puts the storm's strength at 125 knots (mid-range Category 4) based upon satellite imagery; while the folks at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, using the Advanced Dvorak Technique, have Yutu as our first Category 5 storm of the year. They estimate 137 knots as I write this.
Either way, Yutu is an extremely powerful typhoon…
cmooney | May 17, 2007
Projected track of Cyclone Pierre--currently pointing toward Queensland. Image courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane Centre.
The Australian cyclone season this year has been very quiet, and was supposed to be over April 30.
Never mind. Cyclone Pierre has other ideas.
This storm is now heading towards the populous Queensland region, and forecast to intensify slowly but steadily at this point. It bears serious watching.....
cmooney | May 16, 2007
The North Indian cyclone that I blogged on yesterday, later named Akash, now has its own extensive Wikipedia entry. Akash never had much time to gather strength before making landfall in Bangladesh/Burma; it only drove about a 5 foot storm surge. Nevertheless, 3 fisherman were killed and 50 are missing. Thousands of homes were damaged as well.
In this part of the world, we are just extremely lucky that Akash wasn't a more intense cyclone.
Meanwhile, this is shaping up to be a year of storms forming out of season: We had a very early Andrea in the Atlantic, and now it looks like just when you…
cmooney | May 14, 2007
Uh oh. This one could be trouble.
The deadliest tropical cyclones on earth are those that have struck low-lying Bangladesh. Twice in the past fifty years, storms in this region have killed more than 100,000 people. By far the worst was the 1970 Bhola cyclone that killed 300,000 to 500,000.
I'm not saying the current storm, known only as 01B, is going to turn out anything like that. But whenever you see one headed towards Bangladesh you tend to worry. In the case of the present cyclone, it's still only a strong tropical storm, and doesn't look like it has much time to intensify before…
cmooney | May 9, 2007
Subtropical Storm Andrea, image courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory, off the Georgia-Carolina coast.
Hurricane season is here in the Atlantic, and it's almost a full month early!!!!
This is just out from the National Hurricane Center:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.…
cmooney | May 4, 2007
The 16 storm 2003 Atlantic hurricane season (click to enlarge) -- a possible analogue for 2007?
As we get closer to hurricane season--and especially once the season starts--the forecasts become increasingly reliable. We're still a month away, though, so what follows should be taken, as always, with a grain of salt.
Nevertheless, we now have two more forecasts predicting--as previous forecasts have consistently done--a quite active Atlantic hurricane season.
One just released forecast comes from Tropical Storm Risk (PDF), a group whose methodology relies upon assessing sea-surface…
cmooney | April 30, 2007
Well, it's April 30, which means that for most of the Southern Hemisphere, hurricane season just ended. It hasn't been a particularly busy year for any of the Southern Hemisphere cyclone regions except the Southwest Indian Ocean, which took one hell of a beating (see above; image courtesy of Meteo France).
Let's look at the two other relevant regions first. Different divisions are possible, but Wikipedia breaks them into the Australian region and the South Pacific. During the 2006-2007 season, each of these areas saw relatively little activity, save for one kickass storm apiece. For the…
cmooney | April 4, 2007
[Image courtesy of Meteo-France (click for full-size version) showing the tracks of tropical cyclones in the South Indian ocean during the 2006-2007 season. Note that cyclones 3 (Bondo), 5 (Clovis), 12 (Indlala), and 14 (Jaya) made direct landfalls in Madagascar. Cyclones 9 (Favio) and 10 (Gamede) did not make direct landfalls but their circulations affected the island nevertheless.]
When Britney shaves her head, everybody hears about it.
When Ana Nicole Smith dies, everybody hears about it.
But when Madagascar gets struck by a record six tropical cyclones in one season, killing hundreds and…
cmooney | April 3, 2007My latest blog entry at the Huffington Post is up: It's a reflection on the latest forecasts suggesting that, indeed, we're going to have a rough Atlantic hurricane season this year.
cmooney | April 1, 2007Yet another of these perennial data issues has come up with the latest tropical cyclone, Jaya, which is currently tracking mercilessly towards Madagascar. (As if they need another storm this season.) As is obvious from the image below, the storm has weakened considerably in comparison with how strong it was yesterday.
But the question is, how strong was Jaya at its peak? Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Tropical Storm Risk (which uses JTWC's data) consider the storm to have peaked at Category 3. But the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of…
cmooney | March 31, 2007
Poor Madagascar. Another intense cyclone--Jaya--is heading in its direction. This storm, which just three days ago I was predicting would develop, has now intensified much faster than expected. According to the University of Wisconsin folks, it's already a Category 3 storm, with winds of 104 knots and a minimum sea level pressure of 941.2 millibars.
And as you can see, Madagascar may once again be the endzone.
I now pose a scientific question: Has anyone done a study over time of how many hurricanes per year rapidly intensify--by, say, more than 3 categories in 24 hours? I wonder if the…
cmooney | March 30, 2007I'm particularly proud of this currently unnamed tropical cyclone, as I successfully predicted its development. Don't worry, I won't get cocky. Beginner's luck.
UPDATE: The storm now has a name, Jaya...
cmooney | March 28, 2007I'm not a meteorologist. I haven't done an analysis of vertical wind shear, sea surface temperatures, or anything else. Moreover, even the best forecasters have a tough time determining when a severe hurricane will grow out of a more ordinary disturbance.
But all of that said, doesn't it look like this disturbance over the Indian Ocean is about to develop? You can already kinda see the spiraling rain bands.
(Disclosure: This is amateur hour. I'll be happy to be proven wrong.)