On All Hallows' Eve, the NRCC has decided it's time to scare Kansans with TV ads about…
TAXES!
Boo.
In a poll of the fifty most endangered Republican districts, taxes were the 5th most important issue, behind the war in Iraq (the clear leader), jobs/economy, health care, and terrorism. But that isn't the worst part for the NRCC's tricky treat, the worst part is that Democrats are more trusted on taxes than Republicans are (43% to 41%).
This isn't an appeal to Independent voters, the people who will decide the election. This is an appeal to the base, a holding action. The DCCC ads about Ryun's vote against a bonus for combat veterans cut to the heart of issues that really matter to voters across the political spectrum.
Update: Forgot to mention that Charlie Cook just moved this race from "likely Republican" to "toss-up." Was it only September 14 that the Kansas City Star wrote an article claiming that "Rematch fades from Democratic spotlight"?
How times change.
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According to the Topeka Capital-Urinal, "The '2006 victory rallies' coordinated by the White House are designed to encourage core GOP voters to vote."
Talk about being out of touch! In Kansas, "Core GOP voters" are the ones who elected Kathleen Sebelius, who will rally behind Morrison, and will carry Nancy Boyda to victory. No one ever won office in Kansas depending only on "core *Democratic* voters." Core *Republican* voters elected and re-elected Nancy Landon Kassebaum, and Jan Meyers, and Martha Keyes. The only way people like Phill (the extra L is for "liar") Kline and Jim Ryun and the lame-duck State Board of Edjumacation got elected was by turning out radicalized twice-born-holy-rollin'-send-in-your-love offerin's-an'-say-thank-ya-JEEEEEzus-while-bashin'-gays-an'-teenage-loose-wimmen pseudo-Christians.
If George WMD Bush actually draws the intrinsically moderate core of Kansas Republican voters to the polls, Ryun's race this year will end exactly the way his last Olympic race did.
But haven't you heard? People who voted for Sebelius aren't REALLY Republicans.
In the George Bush/Karl Rove world, there are no moderates. There are just extremes, and people in between. The Bush/Rove electoral strategy is to force those people who haven't yet picked a pole to choose sides. You don't chase the center, you chase people out of it.
That's worked thus far, because people were willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt (for reasons unknown). But now that people have seen what he does, chasing them out of the center doesn't scatter them toward Bush.