Why Boyda won

Siege mentality has put together the county-by-county numbers on the Boyda victory. There were 220,442 votes cast for Boyda and Ryun. Last time there were 286,857.

You can see the whole spreadsheet here.

Even with 60,000 fewer votes, Boyda got nearly as many votes in each county, in most cases more, than she got two years ago. Jim Ryun lost votes everywhere.

I suspect that the comment I heard at the watch party is right, that Republican GOTV was bringing Boyda supporters to the polls. Ed Brayton is suggesting that libertarian Republicans swung the election, and I suspect that played a role.

But Boyda also worked hard to tap into the disaffected voters who had backed Perot in '92. Exit polls that year suggested that many of those voters might not have turned up at the polls at all if Perot hadn't run. These are largely protectionist voters concerned about kitchen table issues, not ideological warfare.

I think the libertarian vote is a bigger factor in the Kansas AG race, and in the rising Mountain West Democratic party. The Attorney General is not supposed to be pushing policy through his prosecutions, or carrying out personal vendettas. You don't have to be a libertarian to object to him sticking his nose into private medical records.

Jon Tester, like Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and our Governor Sebelius have succeeded by being moderate to liberal on social issues (Tester is an organic farmer for heaven's sake!), while being economically conservative. On guns and other issues of personal rights, they are liberal (in the classical sense of the term, functionally libertarian).

Ed Brayton draws a distinction between conservative libertarians and liberal libertarians, which I find odd. I think that libertarianism is fundamentally liberal, which is why they share the same etymological root. Any political movement that favors a generally smaller government will almost always wind up being anti-incumbent. Republicans got 12 years of power before that desire for change kicked it.

It came from Reform Party voters who just want change, it came from Democrats upset with the direction of the government's policy, and it came from libertarian voters who wanted to see a less intrusive government. It came from veterans who want to see current and former soldiers cared for.

This is the mandate for change that the new Congress will face. Voters have come to trust Democrats at least as much on issues of taxation and national security as Republicans not least because Republicans showed that they couldn't handle it. January will present an enormous opportunity for Democrats to lead. As it's become clear that Jim Webb has won Virginia, the only obstacle to that mandate for change will be the White House. Hopefully they got the message.

More like this

The Capital Journal reports: High-ranking Republican officials said Monday the president would most likely be in Kansas on Sunday. "We would welcome him with open arms," said Jeffrey Black, campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jim Ryun, R-Kan. "What an amazing opportunity to rally Kansans together."…
Today's editorial from The Parsons Sun: The race is on Voters can tell when there's a real race by the big guns that come out, and we in the 2nd Congressional District have a real race. Challenger Nancy Boyda is taking another run at Congressman Jim Ryun, and the one-time Republican has Ryun…
A month ago, Jim Ryun's campaign planted a story about how Nancy Boyda wasn't a serious challenger because the DCCC wasn't putting any money into her campaign. Of course, she's been saying that she wasn't seeking DCCC involvement since she announced this campaign, but Ryun was desperate. In…
David Boaz had an article on Monday on the Fox News website suggesting that libertarians could be a key voting block in deciding the outcome of the election. Turns out he was right. He wrote: Libertarians -- people who cringe at intrusive government, high taxes, nation-building and politicians…

I had pushed a similar theory on "gLibertarians" as Brayton. You may also notice that in the Missouri Senate race, the Libertarian Party (as opposed to liberal or conservative libertarians) candidate pulled in more votes than the difference between McCaskill and Talent.

Do you think the election on stem cell research in Missouri might have brought out anti-fundamentalist libertarians to vote pro-stem cell research, but couldn't vote for the Democrat or Republican and opted to go Libertarian?

Thanks for the link and putting up an easier to access version of the spreadsheet! I really wish there was an exit poll. Based on what the Secretary of State had up for 2004, I don't think we'll be able to get much information about the partisan makeup of the vote. It would be very interesting to know how many of Ryun's 2004 supporters switched sides.