The slow march

Pew reports:

Public awareness of the number of American military fatalities in Iraq has declined sharply since last August. Today, just 28% of adults are able to say that approximately 4,000 Americans have died in the Iraq war. As of March 10, the Department of Defense had confirmed the deaths of 3,974 U.S. military personnel in Iraq.

In August 2007, 54% correctly identified the fatality level at that time (about 3,500 deaths). In previous polls going back to the spring of 2004, about half of respondents could correctly estimate the number of U.S. fatalities around the time of the survey.

In the current poll, more respondents underestimated than overestimated the number of fatalities. A plurality of 35% said that there have been about 3,000 troop deaths, and another 11% said there have been 2,000 deaths. Just under a quarter (23%) said the number of fatalities is closer to 5,000.


Our usual graphs of daily fatality rates are below the fold.

"The Men Behind The Guns" by Phil Ochs from the album I Ain't Marching Anymore (1964, 3:08).
"Song Of A Soldier" by Phil Ochs from the album A Toast to Those Who Are Gone (1987, 4:05).
There But For Fortune" by Phil Ochs from the album Phil Ochs In Concert (1966, 2:55).


As before, the fit of the regression since Sadr's cease-fire is a stronger fit than the fit for the period since the surge began, suggesting that the ceasefire, not the surge, is the major force reducing violence in Iraq.

For more background on the forces behind the ceasefire, check out this recent article.

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Do you have any graphs showing deaths/1000 soldiers deployed against month (with a second y-axis showing number of soldiers deployed)?

I think that might be an interesting one to show, too.

I don't have a source of monthly troop levels. I could do it quarterly, but I haven't pulled those data together.

"We were born in a revolution, and we died in a wasted war -- it's gone that way before." -Phil Ochs, "Another Age," 1969