Prof Foland of nuclear mangos forward an interesting pointer.
The US Navy's TACAMO ("Take Charge And Move Out") went active this week, with a little flurry of messages (scroll down to comment #71 if you want to see more detail).
This is the old Very Low Frequency communication system, from E-6s flying racetracks over random patches of big ocean.
Primarily intended for communication with submarines on long term underwater patrol, it is also a survivable system, that can not be interfered with through E-M countermeasures, primarily intended for strategic communications during nuclear exchanges.
It turns out that there are radio amateurs who like to play in the VLF band and track traffic (almost all the classified over-air radio communication activity is tracked by amaeturs, because they can).
The VLF system operates down at 17-28 kHz, with channels with bandwith of 50 Hz and ~ 1 kHz, so we're talking low bandwidth text messages. The traffic overheard lasted ~ 3 hours.
So... wazzup?
1) WAKE UP! Heh, just joking dude, This Is An Test! If this were an actual TACAMO alert you'd now be nuking the shit out of someone, but This Is Just a Test.
2) For those of you who don't get CNN, because you've been 100 m underwater for 3 months, er, here's what happened...
So we're sending you some new contingency plans. Just in case. Like, if LA vanishes, take out Pyongyang, not Vladivostk.
3) Using pattern blah, break off patrol and come to the surface for new orders, via satellite.
Nah, that'd only take 10 minutes to send, even with repeated messages.
4) Here are new contingency orders.
5) Here are new actual orders. Break off patrol, move to station indicated, and launch on these targets at this time.
This is in rough order of actual probability.
Communication can be with both attack submarines with conventional warhead cruise missiles, as well as strategic ballistic subs with nuclear warheads.
There are ~ 30 US subs out right now. Most of the conventional attack subs, and many of those with their carrier strike groups, so maybe 10-12 subs would be contacted.
Intriguing. Although most likely exercise to see if the thing still works, possibly combined with transmission of contingency orders, since things have actuall happened.
I'm actually thinking anything with Iran is less likely now, the Kitty Hawk seems to be going back towards the China Sea, where it'd be sensible to keep it (PS actually it is going on a ~ 3 month deployment including an exercise with the Japanes), and its amphibious group (USS Essex et al) seem to be heading that way also (PS stopping for a two week exercise in the Phillippines). Also, unless one or two carrier positions are misreported, there simply will not be the force in place by late Oct. It is still curious that so many carriers are at sea at the same time, and I can't believe the US would attack in Nov, after the elections but before the new Congress is seated. In which case they have few options before spring, at which time the political climate may be quite different, not to mention the problem of North Korea.
In other, unrelated news, the prime minister of Israel threatened Iran.
Do Israelis play poker?
PS: Stennis was definitely in port last weekend, and the Enterprise seems to be headed home while the Eisenhower is lounging in the Med; so most likely no "October Surprise" there. Not enough time or resources, near as I can tell.
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I don't think it's curious that they are at sea, when for most of them the sea they are at is "just outside Norfolk/San Diego/whereever". If you look at the past movements of Kitty, she's left Yokosuka round about now every year since 1998, except for 2001 when the autumn exercise turned out to be the real thing. Eisenhower is currently enjoying the fleshpots of Naples on a port call, which suggests they are in no hurry to get on station.
But this TACAMO business is curious. May I point out that radio hams tracking those skeds is outrageously cool? *off to fetch a spectrum analyser and a really long piece of wire*
I think it is curious that essentially all of them are at sea. Would expect a couple to be in port at any given time.
Of course the essence of a surprise pre-emptive strike is to disguise the movements of hard to hide assets like carriers through normal rotations and exercises.
But, october is looking less likely, unless something somewhere is scooting real fast with us not being told. I still can't believe the US admin would attack in mid Nov, right after the election.
The TACAMO business is curious. It is third hand, and I don't have any hard data at all on how often they exercise the system.
Of course if I were feeling really evil, I could note that the Eisenhower could be a Med strike carrier, deliberately loitering to make things look calm. Certainly in missile range of Iran, planes would be trickier, need to stop in Iraq and argue with Jordan to get there and back. Then they'd have to move two carriers up behind the Enterprise, not one.
Or they could scoot down to the gulf in about two days over the weekend, if the Egyptians are feeling co-operative.
Interestingly the Italians are reporting that the Iranian media is reporting that the Enterprise is moving into the Gulf to attack Tehran.
If people aren't careful, they could make a self-fulfilling prohecy. Those are always embarrassing.
Of course Iran has their share of crap media outlets also.