just had an occasion to zip about the country a bit, and feel a need to free-associate random bits of anecdotal impression
The US Senate has stopped vote on the stimulus package, for tonight.
In the process of bipartisan cutting the package seems to have grown by few tens of billions.
Couple of days ago I was in line at a university cafeteria.
A well dressed young woman was holding up the line while she asked for a custom pack of sushi be made up - not someone to eat a 20 minute old pack of california roll, her.
But, oops, she had no money, and no funds left in her pre-paid campus card.
No worries, mildly irate tech'ed out boyfriend was there; 'course he was out of cash also, and campus card had no balance.
But he had a credit card.
Which was rejected.
Second card, finally, took care of the $8 transaction.
I think there will be an angry parent calling that expensive cell phone in a couple of weeks trying to convey some new realities.
I got lost exiting a freeway in a well known nice suburb of a major metropolitan area.
As I drove around in the dark, the only signs I could see were "For Sale" signs on the lawns, two or three on every block. In february.
I went to a well known commercial area; looking out at the steel and glass across the street from the building I was in, I suddenly realised the entire floor I was looking at was empty, in a high end established building in a prime location. So was the floor above and below.
I got a table at one of the best little restaurants in the area, for lunch, immediately.
And the service was good, to the point of obsequiousness.
They were starting to scare me.
But, I didn't really get scared till about 8 am wednesday.
I was at the Starbucks on K-street in DC, just up from the White House, next to the World Bank.
It was almost empty. No line, hardly any overdressed people looking overimportant as they rattled off their caricature of a drink order.
And, the parking garage up the block was offering discount spaces, deep discounts.
That was eerie.
Oh, almost forgot - went to the bank today; they had a "greeter", checked my account status and asked me if I wanted other services - different accounts, a new credit card maybe? I think they were trying to be nice.
I'm wondering if I should close the account and find a nice grumpy bank, fast.
Other things I heard: lots of astro departments are cutting admissions, nobody wants to overcommit on admits, so fewer initial offers are being made by lots of places.
I suspect that there are as many offers as there are, is due to universities gambling they can recruit stronger small classes as other universities are forced to cut even more.
Lots of pay freezes. Lots of hiring freezes, for a year, or two, or more.
Rumours that one major university in midwest will soon announce cross the board paycuts for faculty and staff. Strong confirmed rumours that at least one major university is forming committees to decide which departments to close. With dismissal of all tenured faculty.
Right now we're in the pullback phase, as institutions become aware of impending trouble and try to anticipate what they will need to do. If things get better, if stimulus funding comes through and money flows, the current measures can be reversed or more normal flow restored.
If things get worse, institutions will clamp down harder and crush local economies.
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Is there a credit union in your area you can join?
I have accounts in two places: Major Regional Bank (which is a subsidiary of a seriously-in-trouble Brit bank) and my local credit union. There is no evidence of any trouble with the credit union; they are their usual small-town friendly when I go there (most recently earlier in the week). I'm not so sanguine about Major Regional Bank: they are still trying to get me to take out a home equity loan (!!--this county is considered a distressed market because we got a share of Boston's drive-till-you-qualify crowd during the bubble) or get a credit card or that sort of thing (they are no longer on my case about a mortgage refi; I talked with them about that in November, and we concluded that I'm too far down the amortization table for a refi to make sense).
One advantage of having multiple accounts is that I'm not worried about losing access to all of my cash should the FDIC have to liquidate Major Regional Bank. Something to think about, if you are worried that your bank may soon be featured on CR's Bank Failure Friday.
After moving around I have accounts in more than one place.
This particular one is at a west coast regional bank that I have had some sort of account with for over 20 years.
In all that time they have never before tried to be nice.
They are rumoured to be "Too Big To Fail", though they clearly do not have the Best Friends in New York that certain other banks have.
Ironically I started banking with them when they bought out the rather nice small Savings and Loan my original account was with - one that specialized in opening accounts for Caltech grad students.
I don't think that S&L actually failed, it was just too small and got eaten.
In my opinion the largest threat for California are cataclysms and ecological catastrophes. Not important is how many money we have because one tragedy can us take all.