Iowa poll percentage predictions

Politics is always fun. At an intellectual level, the Repub contest is more interesting since most of the top candidates have serious issues with one or more elements of the Repub coalition. Or rather, some part of the coalition has major problems with almost all the top candidates. If Romney were a Baptist he would have wrapped it up a while back.

On the Dem side Clinton, Obama, and Edwards are all traditional Dems, ideology wise. I think the Dems are attracting more of the upper-middle class so Edwards anti-rich rhetoric has the potential to offend them, but there's usually been a left-wing populist in the Dem primary race.

Huckabee seems a somewhat new ideological angle in the Repub race. In many ways his rhetoric matches more left-of-center populism. I think this reflects the shift over the past decade plus, as more upper income (sub)urban whites switch from Repub to Dem, and more working/middle class whites become Repub. If so, then Huckabee won't be the last social-con populist to make a splash in the Repub primary.

(My personal policy prefs are in the AEI wing of the Repub party, or the Brookings wing of the Dems. So Huckabee's about the opposite of my own ideology.)

My overall prediction for this phase would be:

Republican:
McCain - 1st
Huckabee - 2nd
Romney - 3rd
Giuliani - 4th
Paul - 5th
Thompson - 6th

Democrat:
Clinton - 1st
Obama- 2nd
Edwards - 3rd

Independent:
Bloomberg

With the finalists being:
McCain
Clinton
Bloomberg

And an overall win for:
Bloomberg

And an overall win for:
Bloomberg

Not a bad showing for someone who has repeatedly said he's not running.

Oh he'll be running alright - check out his latest comments in the NY Times on the inadequateness of all current candidates?!

Now why would he make those remarks, and why has he been building up a track record in Environmental and Gun Control issues, while also hanging out in California regularly, with his quasi-Republican pal Der Governator - not to mention giving a call out to all Gays to make their home in NY City recently!

Look, he just has to take New York, California and Florida to have something like 45% of the votes needed to win as President - and I see him doing that handily.

Keep drinking the Kool-Aid.

Dec. 31st, at Times Square: "No, I will not run for president, but I will speak out to try to get people to really focus on the issues and to get rid of partisanship and special interests."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/01/bloomberg-denie.html

Granted, that was to Ryan Seacrest. But why would he make THOSE remarks? And why has he been making similar remarks for months? My favorite being "If everybody in the world was dead, and I was the last one alive -- yeah sure." (Actual quote from last summer.)

Obama 898 38%
Edwards 716 30
Clinton 704 29
Richardson 50 2
Biden 22 1
Dodd 1 0
Others 3 0
96% reporting

Republicans Vote %
Huckabee 31,508 34%
Romney 23,682 25
McCain 12,520 13
Thompson 12,484 13
Paul 9,132 10
Giuliani 3,321 4
Others 398 0
78% reporting

So Obama and Huckabee, which is what I thought, but I did not think the margin would be so great, especially for Huckabee.

I'm think Hillary is chewing someone's head off right now and Romney is wondering where all the money he spent went to.

If Obama can get Edwards to drop out by Super Tuesday the nomination is his...if not, I still favor Hillary. Hillary is no ones second choice, so Edwards is taking away from Obama and so is Richardson.

Huckabee will not win New Hampshire but if he can make to to Super Tuesday he might win the nomination. The base of the Repub is Southern, white, evangelistic Christians males. Guiliani and Romney won't get that vote. In fact I predict Huckabee will be 3rd in New Hampshire but will win South Carolina.