cmooney | February 23, 2007Recently the White House assured us that president Bush has "consistently acknowledged climate change is occurring and humans are contributing to the problem." But perhaps it all depends on what the meaning of "contributing" is. After all, here's Dick Cheney:
I think there's an emerging consensus that we do have global warming. You can look at the data on that, and I think clearly we're in a period of warming. Where there does not appear to be a consensus, where it begins to break down, is the extent to which that's part of a normal cycle versus the extent to which it's caused by man,…
cmooney | February 23, 2007This from Reuters AlertNet:
On Thursday, the cyclone Favio demolished large parts of the southern coast in the province of Inhambane. Winds reportedly hit 240 km/h as the storm tore through the tourist town of Vilanculos heading north past outlying villages, destroying schools, hospitals and the homes of thousands of people in its path....In the town of Vilanculos and its surrounding area alone, 30,000 people are now without a roof over their heads.
Another report, from Reuters, says that some people were actually sleeping when the storm hit Vilanculos, suggesting that warnings were not…
cmooney | February 22, 2007
As Cyclone Favio makes landfall in an already flooded Mozambique--striking the provinces of Inhambane and Sofala as a Category 3--I am prompted to reflect a bit on what the South Indian cyclone season of 2006-2007 has shown us so far.
There have now been three storms that we can classify as Category 4s according to traditional Saffir-Simpson categorization: Bondo, Dora, and Favio. Being a Category 4 in this particular basin means that at some point, based upon estimates from satellite images, these storms were determined to have maximum sustained winds of 115 knots or higher for at least one…
cmooney | February 21, 2007
First, the good news: Favio has weakened back down to Category 3 as it approaches landfall in Mozambique. Certainly no one is out of the woods yet; but there no longer seems much chance of a Category 4 landfall in the next 24-36 hours. That's the good news.
However, as we get into the peak time for Southern Hemisphere cyclone activity, you can see from the image above (courtesy of Meteo-France) that not one but two new storms have now formed in the Indian Ocean, and both are tracking west. The middle storm, just named Gamede, is on a course that could take it to Madagascar. Both storms are…
cmooney | February 21, 2007
As mentioned before, tonight I'll be participating in the Bookslut.com reading series here in Chicago, along with two distinguished science writers, Deborah Blum and Jennifer Ouellette. Here are the details:
7:30pm
Hopleaf Bar
5148 North Clark Street, Second Floor
I have actually prepared the trial version of a new talk for this event. You see, while I've given a few preview talks about Storm World in recent months, I haven't actually spoken about the "war on science" since last November, around the time of the election. But a lot has changed since then--most noticeably, the Congress. So I…
cmooney | February 20, 2007
Click here or here for the high resolution version of this NASA graphic.
Meanwhile, here's a pic from Meteo France with a much broader view of the South Indian basin, showing both Favio as well as another potential cyclone forming closer to Diego Garcia....
UPDATE: According to the latest advisory from JTWC, Favio is now a mid-range Category 4 storm with 125 knot or 144 mile per hour winds. This is our second Category 4 or 5 storm of 2007 (the first being Dora), and Favio could do some serious damage if it remains this strong, or close to this strong, at landfall. Stand by for more updates…
cmooney | February 20, 2007
According to the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this storm, currently passing south of Madagascar and entering the Mozambique Channel, is a strong Category 3 (105 knot or roughly 120 mph winds) possibly on its way to Category 4. What's troubling about that is the projected track for Favio, shown below in an image from Tropical Storm Risk.
If the part of the South Indian ocean conducive to cyclones were a football field, then Madagascar would be the twenty yard line and Mozambique (where Favio seems headed) would be the end zone. In Storm World, I discuss the…
cmooney | February 15, 2007
Since the release earlier this month of the new IPCC Summary for Policymakers (PDF), I have been watching closely to see if the document sparks any prominent quarrels between scientists over the relationship between hurricanes and global warming. Frankly, I thought the IPCC's claim that global hurricanes have "more likely than not" intensified due to human causes would indeed create some sparks.
Contrary to my expectations, however, I've seen very little conflict of any significance. Indeed, I was waiting for this subject to be brought up by Republicans on Capitol Hill last week with Kevin…
cmooney | February 12, 2007
Dear Friends: I've been having a massively fun time blogging like hell these past few weeks. It feels like old times. However, I now have to go (kicking and screaming) back to work for a bit, to put finishing touches on Storm World. The idea is to be at least mostly done with various editing minutiae before I ship off to San Francisco on Thursday.
So, I'm declaring blog hiatus for a brief few days, much as I hate doing it...but I'll be back soon. I hope to blog from San Francisco and Chicago, actually, if I can. Wish me luck....
cmooney | February 12, 2007
It's Darwin Day, and while I'm not closely involved in any of the stuff taking place around the country this year, I do have a very strong recommendation about how to celebrate: Go and check out one of the many Flock of Dodos screenings that are occurring. And watch the trailer on YouTube to get yourself psyched up.
In Flock of Dodos, Randy Olson has produced a brilliant and funny film which highlights a critical issue that's become an increasing interest of mine: Why do scientists and their defenders, despite being so fricken smart, nevertheless fail to communicate their knowledge (on…
cmooney | February 12, 2007
This is absolutely outrageous. It seems that hurricane research flights using NOAA's two P-3 "hurricane hunter" planes (pictured at left, image courtesy of NOAA) are set to be grounded due to a lack of federal funding. As Jeff Masters observes: "With zero money allocated to fund one of the most important types of hurricane research, one has to wonder--what are NOAA and Congress thinking?"
What indeed. And this even as the latest forecast for the Atlantic in 2007, from Tropical Storm Risk (PDF), is yet again predicting a very active season: "There is a high (~80%) likelihood that activity…
cmooney | February 12, 2007Last week I got pretty exercised about how the White House was trying to rewrite history to pretend that Bush had always endorsed the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming. Well, now an L.A. Times news analysis piece by Maura Reynolds and James Gerstenzang goes over Bush's record, albeit incompletely, and comes to a similar conclusion. Check this out:
The letter cites a June 2001 speech by Bush, quoting him as saying that "we know the surface temperature of the Earth is warming.... There is a natural greenhouse effect that contributes to warming.... And the National Academy of…
cmooney | February 12, 2007
I don't know if I ever disclosed this, but...back before I knew I was doing Storm World, I was seriously contemplating writing a narrative account of the Dover evolution trial for my second book. Now, well, I'm kinda glad I didn't. You see, there are not one, not two, but three books in the hopper about the subject, the first of which is already out. They are: The Battle Over the Meaning of Everything: Evolution, Intelligent Design, and a School Board in Dover, PA, by Gordy Slack; 40 Days and 40 Nights: Darwin, Intelligent Design, God, Oxycontin, and Other Oddities on Trial in Pennsylvania,…
cmooney | February 11, 2007
So: I am hitting the road again this Thursday for about a week. The first stop: the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in San Francisco, where I won't be working on anything in particular, but just taking in the talks and talking to the people. If you're going to be there, leave a comment or send me an email; maybe there will be a chance to say hi.
Coming back across the country after the AAAS meeting, I'll be stopping in the middle along the way. Turns out that on February 21, I'll be participating in the Bookslut.com reading series in Chicago, along with…
cmooney | February 9, 2007Is someone in the White House Press Corps reading this blog, and in particular, did someone in the press corps read this entry? If you read the following exchange from the gaggle yesterday, you have to wonder...
Q And also, the White House yesterday issued an open letter on climate change --
MR. SNOW: Yes.
Q -- and in it there is cited a National Academy of Science study, but it doesn't include in it part of the National Academy of Science conclusion that the verdict is still out to the extent that natural greenhouse cycle contributes to climate change, versus the human generation --
MR. SNOW…
cmooney | February 9, 2007Matt Nisbet has a post you should really read that's a reaction to Ellen Goodman's latest Boston Globe column (which relied heavily on Nisbet's work). Goodman really gets it: Yes the globe is warming, but if we (scientists and science advocates) don't learn how to strategically communicate on this issue, we're not going to get the policy solutions that we need. We'll just wind up with more and more gridlock, as the problem steadily worsens.
Nisbet puts it best: We have to "recast the old story of climate change in new ways by using targeted framing to make the issue personally relevant to…
cmooney | February 9, 2007Jonathan Adler replies to my reply, and I am now replying. Or something.
Because Adler is keeping things civil, I am going to strive to do so also--but I still don't get his take on the stem cell issue. Adler says he stands by his statment that I claim "the number of cell lines, rather than ideological opposition to the destruction of embryos, drove Bush policy." For goodness sakes, no. With the stem cell example, I'm trying to show how cynical the Bushies are with scientific information, whatever the issue. In my reading, the impetus behind the Bush policy was actually to find a compromise…
cmooney | February 8, 2007
Why do House global warming hearings draw so many more people than Senate hearings? I don't know, but I arrived late today to Capitol Hill and so spent half of my time listening to the House Science and Technology Committee hearing on the new IPCC report in an overflow room. (I didn't try at first to invoke "journalist's privilege" to get in the main room, although later, Seed's Washington correspondent was ushered in.)
The opening of the hearing was in some ways the most interesting part. In an historic moment, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (left) gave testimony on her global warming…
cmooney | February 8, 2007There was an absolutely incredible letter from the White House yesterday concerning Bush's record on climate change. It is signed by Office of Science and Technology Policy director John Marburger and Council on Environmental Quality chair James Connaugton, both of whom, with this letter, are guilty of deceiving the public.
The letter says: "Beginning in June 2001, President Bush has consistently acknowledged climate change is occurring and humans are contributing to the problem." False. I need only point out, yet again, that just last year, Bush claimed there was a debate over whether…
cmooney | February 8, 2007
I've been extremely gratified by the huge response to the Mooney-Sokal op-ed in the L.A. Times, and there's been still more response since last I posted. In particular, sci-fi novelist David Brin, whose books I read as a kid, posted a very strong endorsement at Daily Kos. I don't agree with everything that Brin says, but believe me, he says it powerfully. Worth checking out.
BTW: Brin's fairly critical review of my own book can also be read here, on his website. I think he likes me a bit more when I'm paired with Sokal....