Introducing Tropical Storm Chris

My namesake tropical cyclone is kicking it east of the Leeward Islands, having developed from a much-watched tropical wave in the past 24 hours, and may be heading towards Puerto Rico. But the system might not last long; Jeff Masters already puts it this way:

Chris could become a hurricane late in the week, but I put the chances of this at 10%. Dissipation is a more likely scenario, since there is so much wind shear around. The most likely scenario of all is that Chris will remain a tropical storm over the next five days.

But Stacy Stewart, the lead forecaster at the National Hurricane Center, sounds more optimistic (or should I say pessimistic) about my storm's chances: "MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN CONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL."

In any case, I will be watching this one closely. This part of Stewart's write-up is my favorite so far: "THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS WILL BECOME." My sentiments exactly....

UPDATE: A long range forecast from NOAA's NCEP (not the Hurricane Center) suggests that Chris may be on track to head "INTO THE CENTRAL GLFMEX," where of course warm waters will be waiting. A scary possibility. And indeed, although I know that long range track forecasts are so riddled with uncertainty that they're essentially meaningless, that does kinda look like where the storm may be heading....