TS Florence is giving the forecasters a hell of a time. They can't see any real reason why it hasn't strengthened--but it hasn't. Chalk up another mystery to the weird Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. As forecaster Lixion Avila amusingly puts it in his latest discussion, which follows upon multiple prior predictions of intensification that have been belied by events:
LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE PREVAILED.
Meanwhile, Jeff Masters has what may be a partial explanation for why the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006 could shape up to be nothing at all like 2005. We could be moving into an El Nino year, which strongly suppresses hurricane activity in our basin while enhancing it in the Pacific (aka Ioke...)
- Log in to post comments
More like this
Cyclone Monica on April 24, 2006, possibly the strongest recorded hurricane in the Southern Hemisphere.
So: According to Jeff Masters, there were 21 Category 4 or 5 hurricanes globally in 2006. Zero of them were in the Atlantic, which makes the total number sound even more staggering.
I actually…
[Hurricane John of 2006 about to strike Baja California.]
NASA has a new analysis of why the 2006 hurricane season in the Atlantic was much tamer than expected by seasonal forecasters. Interestingly, some of what the agency says contradicts what I've been hearing from other sources. Notably:
1.…
Apart from Tropical Storm Alberto, the 2006 North Atlantic hurricane season has been pretty slow so far. That's not unexpected; June is never exactly a rockin' month for hurricanes, although last year, July was a rockin' month. So far it's not clear what to expect; I find the best source of day-to-…
Throughout the spring and into summer, I've pointed out repeatedly that there has been a consensus, among seasonal hurricane forecasters, that there will be an active season this year in the Atlantic. 17 named storms was Bill Gray's number; NOAA said 13-17. Methodologically, both Gray and NOAA use…
Doesn't science always prevail even when a particular scientist is wrong (by correcting our understanding of nature)?
indeed, science is a successive of hypotheses of ever increasing scope, all of which are wrong.
sorry, "successive" --> "succession".
Chris,
I noticed that comment, too. Having spoken to Avila before I know he gets frustrated by the online commentators who like to amuse themselves by criticizing the NHC. I'm guessing that was a subtle shot at those who were saying the NHC had erred by keeping Florence a medium-strength TS instead of weakening it on Thursday.
Then again, I could be reading too much into things :-)
Eric
Eric,
Yeah, the forecasters have a tough time of it, we all get to watch and second guess them, and comment when they're off-- even though we do none of the work. I am not trying to be critical; I just find the online forecast discussions that they post to frequently be very entertaining--like this one.
Oh goody, El Nino. Better get the rain gutters done here in San Diego...