Can We Squawk About the Weather?

We can if we're Fox News. Or Matt Drudge.

These people use any snowstorm as reason to cast doubt on global warming. It's as predictable as...well, no, it's a lot more predictable than the weather.

I really regret that important global warming protests and actions always seem to be timed so that they coincide with winter weather. Mostly, the activists can't help it; it's just rotten luck. But I'll say it again: Having the U.N. Copenhagen meeting in Denmark in December is just asking for this kind of stuff.

That doesn't, of course, excuse the dishonesty from right-wingers who continually try to suggest that individual weather events undermine the global warming consensus.

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So in the summer, out of fairness, shouldn't they claim global warming is likely? I can't watch FOX due to my blood pressure but I would guess that they don't.

What is tonightâs low or tomorrowâs high temperature?

The theory that man can affect global climate change is based on computer models predicting 8 degree (F) increase in the earthâs average temperature in the next 100 years. Show me.

Letâs do a simple test of the models. They obviously take the sunâs radiance, and the earthâs radiance, reflectance, absorptivity, cloud cover, heat coefficient, enthalpy, dew point and atmospheric composition into account, and many of those variables are constant over a short time period, so how about using all that high powered science and math to tell me what the high temperature is going to be tomorrow? Easier yet, what about tonightâs low?

Since the models can predict 8 degrees over 100 years, the accuracy for the low or high should be easy to predict within 8F/100yx365d/y or 0.0002 degrees F, but considering the limits of science, I think 0.1 degree F would be fair. The prediction could be made for the any International Airport, where the human activity can be easily modeled and temperature recording instruments are in place.

The guys who wrote the models should appreciate this challenge too, because if they can accurately predict the highs and lows, all the weather forecasting services in the world would buy their product.

By Randy Hurt (not verified) on 04 Mar 2009 #permalink

Re Randy Hurt

It really gets tiresome when people like Mr. Hurt fail to understand the difference between climate and weather. Mr. Mooney has explained the difference on numerous occasions on this blog and in various other venues, as have people like Tim Lambert on his blog but the Randy Hurts of the world never seem to get the message.

Is that an REM song reference? Because if so, I approve.

And if I don't, that's okay. And I swear, I'm trying to finally get around to going back to finish your book. Then finish Al Gore's. They were birthday presents, I think. Not recently. :)

Randy Hurt, if you cannot predict whether Mr. Arnold Perkins will purchase 12.63 gallons of gasoline on March 8, 2009, at Kimball's Chevron Station on the corner of Mandingo Avenue and Aspen Road in Cleveland Ohio at 10:21 PM, then clearly we could not possibly estimate how much gasoline the US will use in 2009 -- right? ;-)

By Erasmussimo (not verified) on 06 Mar 2009 #permalink