hurricanes
cmooney | February 22, 2007
As Cyclone Favio makes landfall in an already flooded Mozambique--striking the provinces of Inhambane and Sofala as a Category 3--I am prompted to reflect a bit on what the South Indian cyclone season of 2006-2007 has shown us so far.
There have now been three storms that we can classify as Category 4s according to traditional Saffir-Simpson categorization: Bondo, Dora, and Favio. Being a Category 4 in this particular basin means that at some point, based upon estimates from satellite images, these storms were determined to have maximum sustained winds of 115 knots or higher for at least one…
cmooney | February 21, 2007
First, the good news: Favio has weakened back down to Category 3 as it approaches landfall in Mozambique. Certainly no one is out of the woods yet; but there no longer seems much chance of a Category 4 landfall in the next 24-36 hours. That's the good news.
However, as we get into the peak time for Southern Hemisphere cyclone activity, you can see from the image above (courtesy of Meteo-France) that not one but two new storms have now formed in the Indian Ocean, and both are tracking west. The middle storm, just named Gamede, is on a course that could take it to Madagascar. Both storms are…
cmooney | February 20, 2007
Click here or here for the high resolution version of this NASA graphic.
Meanwhile, here's a pic from Meteo France with a much broader view of the South Indian basin, showing both Favio as well as another potential cyclone forming closer to Diego Garcia....
UPDATE: According to the latest advisory from JTWC, Favio is now a mid-range Category 4 storm with 125 knot or 144 mile per hour winds. This is our second Category 4 or 5 storm of 2007 (the first being Dora), and Favio could do some serious damage if it remains this strong, or close to this strong, at landfall. Stand by for more updates…
cmooney | February 20, 2007
According to the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, this storm, currently passing south of Madagascar and entering the Mozambique Channel, is a strong Category 3 (105 knot or roughly 120 mph winds) possibly on its way to Category 4. What's troubling about that is the projected track for Favio, shown below in an image from Tropical Storm Risk.
If the part of the South Indian ocean conducive to cyclones were a football field, then Madagascar would be the twenty yard line and Mozambique (where Favio seems headed) would be the end zone. In Storm World, I discuss the…
cmooney | February 12, 2007
This is absolutely outrageous. It seems that hurricane research flights using NOAA's two P-3 "hurricane hunter" planes (pictured at left, image courtesy of NOAA) are set to be grounded due to a lack of federal funding. As Jeff Masters observes: "With zero money allocated to fund one of the most important types of hurricane research, one has to wonder--what are NOAA and Congress thinking?"
What indeed. And this even as the latest forecast for the Atlantic in 2007, from Tropical Storm Risk (PDF), is yet again predicting a very active season: "There is a high (~80%) likelihood that activity…
cmooney | February 3, 2007
Thanks to the Navy Research Lab for the image. Dora is a weak Cat 4, 115 knots according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and expected to weaken by the next advisory. It is certainly no Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke. Still, for those keeping stats on global Cat 4s and 5s--myself included--it now joins the list....
cmooney | February 2, 2007
An impressive satellite picture, no? The storm has jumped up in intensity far more than expected; it's now at 110 knots. Still no immediate threat to land, though.
cmooney | January 31, 2007
Cyclone Dora, in the South Indian basin, was estimated to have 75 knot or about 86 mile per hour maximum sustained winds in the latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. That's significantly stronger than any storm yet in 2007, and Dora is expected to intensify further. The storm does not pose any immediate threat to land, although a turn to the west could take it toward La Reunion and perhaps ultimately Madagascar and the African mainland.
In any event, Dora is a reminder that tropical weather is about to get pretty fiesty in the Southern Hemisphere as we move into February and…
cmooney | January 23, 2007
I was just reading a report (PDF) about the damages caused by Hurricane Catarina, a very anomalous event, to Brazil in 2004. The report is written in English but reading through, I rather doubt that's the first language of its authors. I was amused to come across this paragraph in particular:
The impact was intense over the fauna. Coastal birds were blown towards the valleys and the mountain range situated 40 km from the coast. Many birds died and sickened due to virus infection and inadequate feeding. It was also noticed an increase on the number and aggressiveness of mosquitoes, and farm…
cmooney | January 19, 2007
[Hurricane John of 2006 about to strike Baja California.]
NASA has a new analysis of why the 2006 hurricane season in the Atlantic was much tamer than expected by seasonal forecasters. Interestingly, some of what the agency says contradicts what I've been hearing from other sources. Notably:
1. NASA says that El Nino quashed Atlantic storms in two ways: "a sinking motion in the middle and upper atmosphere and increased wind shear in the Caribbean." By contrast, earlier this week in a talk at the AMS meeting in San Antonio, National Hurricane Center forecaster James L. Franklin said that El…
cmooney | January 18, 2007
This headline from Reuters is really unbelievable: " Hurricane sweeps across Europe." WTF?
The first sentence of the article is even worse: "Germans were told to stay indoors and many schools across the country closed early on Thursday as a rare hurricane bore down on the country, cutting air traffic at its biggest airport by half."
The only tropical storm on record to strike any part of Europe was Vince of 2005 (PDF), and it weakly passed over the Iberian peninsula as a tropical depression. I don't even have to check the weather to tell you that what Germany and much of the rest of Europe…
cmooney | December 23, 2006
Cyclone Bondo has, for me, underscored just how far hurricane intensity prediction still has to go. It almost seems as though every time this storm is predicted to weaken it intensifies, and every time it's predicted to intensify it weakens.
Most recently, Bondo has jumped back up to 115 knots, or Category 4 strength, even as the storm's powerful left front quadrant (that's the dangerous quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere) rakes Madagascar's northwestern coast. I don't know much about Madagascar beyond the fact that it has lemurs. But it looks like the city of Antsiranana is getting it…
cmooney | December 19, 2006
This post is to introduce you to Cyclone Bondo, which now has 135 knot winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center as it approaches Magagascar and Mozambique. The storm is expected to become a Cat 5 with the next advisory. It's nearly as strong as 2004's Cyclone Gafilo was when it made a devastating Cat 5 landfall in northeastern Madagascar, causing catastrophic damage and a humanitarian crisis. Gafilo was a reminder just how much destruction hurricanes can cause in the developing world; let's hope Bondo doesn't prove another one of those.
Meanwhile, the agency officially tracking…
cmooney | December 2, 2006Typhoon/Supertyphoon Durian was apparently the deadliest tropical cyclone event in the world this year, due to heavy rains that created mudslides from the slopes of the Mayon Volcano, in turn burying a large number of villages. Jeff Masters has more. This is now a major humanitarian disaster and Masters advises giving to the Red Cross International Response Fund. I'll second that.
cmooney | November 30, 2006From an AP article on the Washington Post website:
About 20 typhoons and tropical storms hit the Philippines each year.
Yeah, right....almost as bad a science blooper as Scalia's!
[By the way, here's the 2004 Northwest Pacific storm tracks, looks like about 3-5 hit the Philippines in that year.]
UPDATE: Unbelievable, the AP repeats this staggeringly incorrect factoid again here. If 20 typhoons and tropical storms hit the Philippines each year, who would live there?
cmooney | November 28, 2006
In 2004, as we all remember too well, four hurricanes--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--struck Florida in fairly rapid succession.
In early 2005 (as relatively few Americans know), the Cook Islands had to deal with four extremely intense tropical cyclones--Meena, Nancy, Olaf, and Percy--in the space of a month.
Now 2006 is seeing its rapid-fire shellacking, and the unlucky country is the Philippines. First came Typhoon Xangsane, then Super Typhoon Cimaron, then Typhoon Chebi--all very intense, and all hit the main Philippine island of Luzon in the space of just over a month.
And it's not…
cmooney | November 15, 2006
From the National Hurricane Center:
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT THAT SERGIO HAS INTENSIFIED TO 85 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PINHOLE EYE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-T-NUMBERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN A CONSERVATIVELY ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED.
Sergio is, apparently, a late season rapid intensifier....and a lot of the models suggest that its burst has only begun (it's currently at Cat2). Yikes.
November 16, 2006, UPDATE: Sergio's rapid intensification did not…
cmooney | September 17, 2006
I've kinda missed hurricane blogging--even though you readers seem to enjoy fights over "intelligent design" much more. In any case, here are hurricanes Gordon and Helene, drifting harmlessly out to sea (though Helene might still have a few surprises in store). In general, it's been that kind of year, folks. All the really dramatic hurricane action has been in the Pacific. At this point, it's possible that the U.S. may get an entire year-long reprieve from major hurricane threats; that Ernesto will wind up being our worst 2006 landfalling storm. That certainly would be nice.
Meanwhile, I'm…
cmooney | September 9, 2006
Flo is getting organized, finally. Maximum sustained winds are at 70 mph, and minimum central pressure is now 990 mb. By the next advisory this storm may be classified as a hurricane (if it isn't one already). The media, I'm sure, must be getting very excited.
Hurricanes run the gamut in size, and Florence happens to be a very large storm in terms of its spatial scale. And that makes a very big difference, as Jeff Masters notes:
Florence has a very large swath of tropical storm force winds that have been blowing for many days over a huge stretch of ocean. These factors, when combined with…
cmooney | September 8, 2006
TS Florence is giving the forecasters a hell of a time. They can't see any real reason why it hasn't strengthened--but it hasn't. Chalk up another mystery to the weird Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. As forecaster Lixion Avila amusingly puts it in his latest discussion, which follows upon multiple prior predictions of intensification that have been belied by events:
LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES…